New MLB 2025 thread after completing the first Doubling the Bankroll Cycle

This is a link to a previous thread:

https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/2025-mlb-103944983/5

Everything you will find in my threads is transparent and well explained with a heaviest emphasis on sound Money Management. If you will follow my easy to understand and implement instructions step by step - even if you are a seasoned sports investor - you will be surprised how mathematics applied to sports betting work. 

As you will find out in a previous thread - me and - I must admit - very few if any at all followers here - doubled a bankroll of $5K in little more than 2 weeks and also withdrew half the profits as per Money Management directives aimed to create: A. Compounded growth of capital, and B. Create steady source of income that can be withdrawn after a completion of each cycle.

Join our journey! It is free of any charge and it is all right here - at Covers.com

49-48 overall  $10,394   (+$5,394 on top of the initial $5k bankroll)

Now, remember our Double the Bankroll Protocol directives? 

Here what we do in order to keep maintaining proper money management combining compounded growth and steady income in best of capitalist traditions:

We began with $5,000 which also meant that our unit size was 2% of the bankroll which is $100. We have just completed the first cycle of doubling the bankroll to $10,000 (actually $10,391). Now we will withdraw half thew profits (Current Bankroll-Initial Bankroll)/2=10,000-5,000)/2=2,500

So, now our new bankroll is $7,500 +($391:The sum we made over the doubling). The unit size too will grow in 50% as the bankroll did and will now become $150. 

So, we are starting a new cycle of doubling.

1. We withdrew half the first doubling cycle gains ($5,000/2=$2,500) and now our Bankroll is $7,500. Our new size of the unit became $150.

2. Updated bankroll $7,500+$391=$7,891

3. Fund distribution: $7,891 book balance. $2,500 my wallet. (I'm actually using a book that accepts crypto currency and conduct everything in USD equivalent crypto currency) 

Tuesday

NY Yankees ML  -115 $495

SD Padres ML -105  $465

PHI Phillies ML  -135 $608

CHI Cubs ML +105  $150

SF Giants ML -135 $202

Total exposure $1,920

If you are curious how we created such profits with such a "poor" record of 49-48 - don't be lazy and go to my previous thread - https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/2025-mlb-103944983/5

Everything is there time stamped and explained thoroughly before and after placing a bet. 

And now we begin the Double the Bankroll Cycle number 2.

Knock knock knock!!! The rest is up to you 

Great read. I don’t fully understand how the picks are selected.  I used Kelly criterion a lot when I was heavy into prop betting. It’s a very helpful tool. (Dangerous if you don’t have your true odds accurately figured.) 

I look forward to following along and reading your threads. 

@raceman06

 Thanks for you reply.

Pick selection process is done automatically by LLM like prediction system. I am still overseeing it "manually" as the number of the bets are within the limitations of human analysis and supervision. Is it good or bad that I don't let the machine do its thing? Not sure as in some cases the bets were better left alone without me interfering. In other instances my intervention prevented some significant losses. But, in general - the machine better left alone as long as I pursue quantitive model of betting (many based on winning percentage based on reverse engineering utilizing data bases since 1999). In simple words - more bets the better. On the other hand - volatility is a must to progress positively. So, I kind of insuring myself by using hidden Markov like model here. That requires long term perspective and scrupulous money management system implementation.  

You mentioned Kelly criterion. Well, for what we do and even in general - Kelly criterion as in its classic form - is a very dangerous tool as by proper interpretation of that model risking 17% of the bankroll is what one must do based on having undeniable edge. I don't even know what undeniable edge means. Mr Ed Thorp halved that 17% into 8.5%, and still was very reluctant using it as a permanent model of money management. Since those times quantum mathematics have advanced and based on simplest form of it - 2% of the bankroll is a biggest size for the unit taken. 

Although I have been employing and implementing prediction models for more than 3 decades academically and more than a decade as practical business instruments - I am still not sure which model they are closer too - late Mr Jim Simmons' RIP or Mr Ed Thorp's. One thing is for sure: both came to a final conclusion that no one really knows what will happen with one particular prediction, but, in a long run, as long as you employ mathematical models based on volatility, and you manage your money right meaning having bankroll big enough to withstand some blows and divide your risk wisely - you will prevail in a long run regardless of late Mr Charlie Munger RIP and Mr Warren Buffet's philosophy against spreading the risk. Their genius was also used in some prediction systems but is different from what we do here.

How do suggest using your system if I am just starting today?

Thanks

GET IT 

Bump

1. Set a bankroll

2. Set your unit size (suggested 2% of your bankroll)

3. Since I am already starting second doubling cycle and I started with $100 units (2% of my initial bankroll of $5K) - now my unit size is $150. I suggest you read this and previous thread link to which you can find here - in order to fully understand what we are doing here. 

4. Follow my picks. I try to post them daily since they are my own picks as well. 

5. Once you will double your bankroll - withdraw half the profits and set the new bankroll which should be one and half time bigger than your intial one. Your unit size too will grow subsequently and according to your bankroll resembling still 2% of your bankroll. But, since the bankroll grew - the unit size will too.

If there is something you do not understand - please feel free to ask

nice work.

do ur llm models take into consideration factors such as day/night games, weather, pitching matchups, home/away, injuries, etc...? or are those to be factored after ur picks? thx

bol

Thanks for kind words.
Yes, and more.

In addition - it combines structured and unstructured data generating predictions not only about the certain event, but a chain of events eliminating possible outcomes by Markov hidden model progression.  Let's say the Series, the last game, first game, sweeps, all that on one day rest  or no rest at all after changing home to away or opposite. What the opposing team structured data combined with unstructured says and what is the length of a progression model till it is left with only probable outcome option. Late Mr Claude Shannon's work combined with late Mr Alan Turing's work will lead you to understand the models we are using. They are not based on one certain event but a chain of events -as I said earlier - and the losses are not considered as a failure of a model to predict, but a step closer to even larger gains when winning the next time or the very next time.

Tuesday

NY Yankees ML  -115   -$495

SD Padres ML -105  +$442

PHI Phillies ML  -135 -$608

CHI Cubs ML +105  +$157

SF Giants ML -135  -$202

2-3   -$706

51-51 overall

Current bankroll $7,891-$706=$7,185

hard to believe more bettors aren't interested in a more ai approach like this. the books have been using it for years against us. my bankroll started staying in the positive and i started to win those 50/50 bets that i'd normally lose when i used structured and unstructured data. along with watching a ton of baseball. 

I’m eagerly anticipating todays action. 

good luck today

NY Yankees ML  -156     $1170  

Bol 

PHI Phillies ML  -110  $825

LA Dodgers ML  -108  $486