Posted:
#26
SF Giants -137 $1027
0
New MLB 2025 thread after completing the first Doubling the Bankroll Cycle
Posted:
#28
Quote Originally Posted by garister:
Do you recompute your 2% Bankroll every day? or is every bet based on the original bankroll of $7500? based on your last balance, your unit size would be 143.70 (2%) your betting 8 units plus on NYY and 7 units plus on SF, does your machine tell you how much to wager?
No. My unit size is set with the beginning of the doubling cycle and is currently $150. It is not recalculated with each change of the bankroll. It could be. I tried that two years ago and found it to be inefficient effort wise and not practical since the flow depends on the chronological order of the games rather than Money Management protocol.
Do you recompute your 2% Bankroll every day? or is every bet based on the original bankroll of $7500? based on your last balance, your unit size would be 143.70 (2%) your betting 8 units plus on NYY and 7 units plus on SF, does your machine tell you how much to wager?
Both games are 5 units.
0
+$750
Posted:
#32
Daily Summary (Report Card)
Started with $5,000
Unit size $100 (2% of the bankroll)
Doubled it to $10,000 (and $391 on top of it)
Withdrew half the profits ($5,000/2) $2,500
First cycle of Doubling the bankroll is completed.
Set the New Bankroll at $7,500 (and $391 on top of it)
Unit size $150 (2% of the new bankroll)
Current bankroll $7,374 (4-5 since the beginning of a second doubling the bankroll cycle, loss of $517 including $391 that was gained on top of doubling the bankroll since the beginning of the second doubling cycle)
0
Posted:
#42
Friday
CHI Cubs - PHI Phillies
This is a 3 game series and the Phillies coming in after suffering a sweep at the Shea stadium surrendering two runs in the bottom of the 10th after scoring one in the top of the inning. Too many factors lining up in favour of the Phillies in this series. May be they won't win the series, but, they will most probably win at least one game. And, that is all we need. I am going to martingale the machine here. It has the Cubs winning the first game 65 times in 100 simulations while the Phillies are 62 times winners in 100 simulation in game 2. Well, once understanding the factors and the logic that drove the machine to choose the Cubs to win with Rea against Walker and the Phillies to roll over the Cubs with Luzardo - it made logical choices based on structured data. But, the unstructured data suggests the Phillies -a winner of at least one game in the series - should be a logical bet in the first game having Luzardo and game 2 as more than a back up for not being swept. And being swept second time in a row - that opposes all the protocols facing the Cubs who are still high from turning LA Dodgers into a dust this young season. So, once we agree that the Phillies will at least salvage a game at the Wrigley - then we should take them from game 1. Additional strength - Nola has to turn around this season after being 0-5, so, we also have game 3.
Game 1:
PHI Phillies ML +112 $450
0
Posted:
#43
DET Tigers - BAL Orioles Game 1
Simulations for all three games show that the Tigers are favourites. They come out winners 61% in the first game, 59% in the second and 57% in game 3. For me what matters is that they will at least win one game. So, why not this first game?
DET Tigers ML -132 $198
0
Posted:
#44
Game 1 WASH Nationals - NY Mets
This is a 4 game series and the Mets aren't going to sweep them. That is basic assumption on this highly attention drawing series where the machine predicts 3-1 Mets winning the series. I can tell you million sentences about Sengas dominance. But, I could also tell you that the best scenario for game 1 is Under rather than any team winning cause that is sure Mets. Right? Yes. I agree. But, here comes the human intervention supported by machine's output when it comes to series as a whole and not a single game: during 4 game period - at some point the nationals will salvage a game or may be even two. So, why not here with Irvin?
WASH Nationals ML +144 $150
WASH Nationals +1.5 -118 $177
We also will martingale Under. The machine simulation comes up with U, O, O, U. So, we will take that from the beginning.
Under 8.5 -108 $108
And, remember - we don't get a long faces after a loss. Opposite - we're getting closer to a bigger win. And also remember that predicting a loss is as hard as predicting a win.
1
Posted:
#46
If there will be more unstructured data (closer to the games - more data) that will be relevant to our cause - I will post more picks. Since the games are dominantly in the first game of martingale series thus far from Markov model progression - we have some great reserves to reach high exposure
1
Posted:
#47
0.280.30 10.250.30 10.530.600.270.30 10.140.30 10.410.60-0.10-0.111 -0.10-0.111 -0.20-0.220.090.10 10.080.10 1-0.10-0.111 0.090.10 10.170.19
Just a small sample of structured data output predicting NBA playoff games where I didn't have time to post and running a separate banroll with few of my graduate students as part of their thesis project.
| P/L Dec | P/L Ame |
| 0.90 | 1.17 |
| coefficiency | |
| 2.00 | 2.00 |
| exposure | |
| dec | ame |
| 1.80 | 2.34 |
| wins | losses |
| 7 | 3 |
| 70.00% | |
1
Posted:
#48
Dec and Ame means Decimal odds and American odds. We are testing the profitability of those two approaches as in American for -111 you would bet $111 and win $100 or lose $111 while with Decimal we are betting flat $100 per unit and then win only $90 as the same odds Decimally are 1.90. This is part of the test we are running. They want to publish a book beating Mr Ed Thorp's books about beating the dealer and the markets.
I'm sharing all this with you to built a common narrative that will become one day our own community of sports investors.
Have a great weekend!
1
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