Posted:
#51
Question
What factors (if any) decide how many units to put on certain bets or does it matter??
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New MLB 2025 thread after completing the first Doubling the Bankroll Cycle
Posted:
#55
Quote Originally Posted by Drew85:
Question What factors (if any) decide how many units to put on certain bets or does it matter??
Probabilistic model of progression is the factor determining the unit size in most cases unless there is some obvious loophole to materialize on. That model is a hybrid model; Hidden Markov model and martingaleX3 (not a usualX2). The practical application comes as follows: if there is a high probability or a certainty that in a chain of events to follow volatility factor will prevail - then you invest from the beginning of the chain of events or from some level of chain of events after one sided outcomes. Your first investment will be in a size of a unit. If you lose, then the next time you invest 3 units and so on. Even if you lose 3 times and win only on a fourth occasion - you still are on a winning side:
Question What factors (if any) decide how many units to put on certain bets or does it matter??
1. inv 1, L -1,
2. inv 3, L, (-1)+(-3)=-4,
3. inv 9, L, (-1)+(-3)+(-9)=-13
4. inv 27,W, (-1)+(-3)+(-9)+(27X-110)=+14
Now, in order to avoid running out of the resources quantitive betting is recommended taking many bets and making sure that your bankroll stays intact. I am doing this for a pretty long period of time so I already know that with 2% size of bankroll units I can survive and double my bankroll with pretty ease and comfort. But, for a beginner in this business who will start his or her own enterprise - I suggest that the unit size won't exceed 0.5% of the bankroll. If you follow me - then it is OK to have your unit size at 2% cause I also manually adjust the size of the bets when I feel that it has to be done.
The decision if the chain of events is right one to bet on is determined by a machine. That is why continuous room for error possible with human decision making is actually eliminated
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Posted:
#56
Quote Originally Posted by garister:
@ChatBIN Are totals just $100 a unit until they start winning more regular? your risking $108 instead of $162 (to win $150). like you did the day b4. good Luck
Good point. since that bet is on totals and yesterday that totals bet was Freudian mistake of $100 size unit - I decided to stick with that size only on totals till we start winning. Otherwise you are totally right to call me out on that@ChatBIN Are totals just $100 a unit until they start winning more regular? your risking $108 instead of $162 (to win $150). like you did the day b4. good Luck
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Posted:
#57
Friday so far
PHI Phillies ML +112 $450 
- $450
DET Tigers ML -132 $198 Postponed
WASH Nationals ML +144 $150 
+$216
WASH Nationals +1.5 -118 $177 +$150
Under 8.5 -108 $108 -$108
MY Yankees ML -133 $200 -$200
SD Padres ML -145 $218 Does not look good. TB is leading
LA Dodgers -1.5 +107 $150 Does not look good. PIT is leading
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Posted:
#58
Califfornication.... 23 innings so far and not even one of the Californian teams has scored a single run... I wish that stays that way as it gets us closer to our goal and with more valour in front of tomorrow's and day after tomorrow's home crowd.
PHI Phillies ML +112 $450 - $450
DET Tigers ML -132 $198 Postponed
WASH Nationals ML +144 $150 +$216
WASH Nationals +1.5 -118 $177 +$150
Under 8.5 -108 $108 -$108
MY Yankees ML -133 $200 -$200
SD Padres ML -145 $218 -$218
LA Dodgers -1.5 +107 $150 Does not look good. PIT is leading
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Posted:
#69
@Drew85
1 unit=$150
We are using American odds. The difference between betting by American odds or Decimal odds is in methodology. Let's say your unit size is $100. While the American odds are always 100 oriented meaning you either risk $ $100 when the odds are even or positive, or bet to win the $100 when the odds are negative betting the same number as after a minus sign. Decimal is flat betting. You risk $100 no matter what are the odds and win according to the decimal odds as a percentage. So, since our unit size is already $150, we multiply 150 by the number of units we want to risk and then multiply it by the odds if they are negative or leave it just as they are after an initial multiplication.
So, since the odds on SD Padres win at the time of me placing a bet were -149, I had to multiply 150 by 3 and then by 149 and divide the result by 100. That is $670.5. Now, I am actually betting crypto currency and there is sometimes deviation of 5 or 6 USD. So, my bet was $676 
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Posted:
#73
Saturday
PHI Phillies ML -109 $1,472 +$1,350
WASH Nationals - NY Mets Under 9.5 -112 $504 +$450
SD Padres ML -149 $676 Did not start yet.
*My bet on Detroit-Baltimore from yesterday's postponed game was voided, so, although the Tigers won - that is not a win in our records. Simply strike it out
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