Posted:
#526
sorry niner one more question. How come you went with a couple of dogs today? d backs and rockies.
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Multiple MLB Chase Systems (+250 units in 2012)
Posted:
#527
Quote Originally Posted by honolulu:
sorry niner one more question. How come you went with a couple of dogs today? d backs and rockies.
sorry niner one more question. How come you went with a couple of dogs today? d backs and rockies.
Are you referring to the Series Chase Plays? Those chases require us to play the team to win at least one game in the 3 or 4 game series. It does not matter if they are dogs or not, we're still playing them to win. In essence, we're taking the superior team to not get swept. We got the better team at + odds, which is great value IMO. good luck
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Posted:
#529
Quote Originally Posted by ninersfan1949:
Are you referring to the Series Chase Plays? Those chases require us to play the team to win at least one game in the 3 or 4 game series. It does not matter if they are dogs or not, we're still playing them to win. In essence, we're taking the superior team to not get swept. We got the better team at + odds, which is great value IMO. good luck
hence the name series chace plays. thanks for clarifying. makes sense. babu #186 is still a game 3 pending
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Posted:
#530
Quote Originally Posted by ninersfan1949:
Are you referring to the Series Chase Plays? Those chases require us to play the team to win at least one game in the 3 or 4 game series. It does not matter if they are dogs or not, we're still playing them to win. In essence, we're taking the superior team to not get swept. We got the better team at + odds, which is great value IMO. good luck
hence the name series chace plays. thanks for clarifying. makes sense. babu #186 is still a game 3 pending
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Posted:
#532
Recap of 5/31/13 Part 1:
#185: Angels -257 (2714/1056) for G3
#192: Reds -123 (581/472) for G2
#196: Dbacks +1.5 -180 (180/100)for G1
#197: Tigers -136 (136/100) for G1
#198: Tigers -136 (136/100) for G1
#199: Angels -257 (257/100) for G1
#200: Mariners -131 (131/100) for G1
#201: Phillies -127 (381/300) for G1 [3u]
#202: Yankees -115 (115/100) for G1
#203: Yankees -115 (115/100) for G1
#204: Indians +1.5 -160 (160/100) for G1
#205: Mets -152 (304/200) for G1 [2u]
#206: Rangers -217 (217/100) for G1
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Posted:
#533
YTD: 186-4 +3829
Game 1: 121 (#181 pending)
Game 2: 43 (#176, #177, #178, #183, #191, #196, #197, #198, #199, #201, #204, #205 pending)
Game 3: 15 (#186 pending)
Game 4: 7 (#146, #185 pending)
Losses: 4
Series Chase Plays:
#51: Cardinals -143 (143/100) for Game 1 P
#52: A’s -175 (350/200) for Game 1 [2u] W
#53: Angels -248 (248/100) for Game 1 L
#54: Dbacks +108 (100/108) for Game 1 L
#55: Pirates -115 (115/100) for Game 1 L
#56: Rangers -217 (217/100) for Game 1 W
#57: Braves -108 (108/100) for Game 1 L
#58: Cardinals -143 (143/100) for Game 1 P
#59: Rockies +123 (100/123) for Game 1 L
YTD: 50-1 +4911
Game 1: 40 (#44, #51, #58 pending)
Game 2: 7 (#53, #54, #55, #57, #58, #59 pending)
Game 3: 3
Losses: 1
Game 1: 121 (#181 pending)
Game 2: 43 (#176, #177, #178, #183, #191, #196, #197, #198, #199, #201, #204, #205 pending)
Game 3: 15 (#186 pending)
Game 4: 7 (#146, #185 pending)
Losses: 4
Series Chase Plays:
#51: Cardinals -143 (143/100) for Game 1 P
#52: A’s -175 (350/200) for Game 1 [2u] W
#53: Angels -248 (248/100) for Game 1 L
#54: Dbacks +108 (100/108) for Game 1 L
#55: Pirates -115 (115/100) for Game 1 L
#56: Rangers -217 (217/100) for Game 1 W
#57: Braves -108 (108/100) for Game 1 L
#58: Cardinals -143 (143/100) for Game 1 P
#59: Rockies +123 (100/123) for Game 1 L
YTD: 50-1 +4911
Game 1: 40 (#44, #51, #58 pending)
Game 2: 7 (#53, #54, #55, #57, #58, #59 pending)
Game 3: 3
Losses: 1
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Posted:
#534
Plays for 6/1/13 P1:
#185: Angels -238 (5403/2270) for Game 4
#186: Mets -110 (444/404) for Game 2
#196: Dbacks +1.5 2.8u for Game 2 (no line atm)
#197: Tigers -133 (314/236) for Game 2
#198: Tigers -133 (314/236) for Game 2
#199: Angels -238 (850/357) for Game 2
#201: Phillies 4.81u for Game 2 (no line atm)
#204: Indians 2.6u for Game 2 (waiting on line)
#207: Tigers -133 (798/600) for Game 1 [6u]
#208: Rockies -128 (768/600) for Game 1 [6u]
#209: Rockies -128 (128/100) for Game 1
#210: Braves -138 (828/600) for Game 1 [6u]
Notes:
Transferred a total of 15 units from Chase #185 to other chases indicated as 6u. 54 units is more than enough on a single game 4. Saying a huge card would be an understatement.
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Posted:
#535
Plays for 6/1/13 P2:
#53: Angels -238 (850/357) for Game 2
#54: Dbacks +121 (200/242) for Game 2
#55: Pirates -132 (284/215) for Game 2
#57: Braves -138 (287/208) for Game 2
#59: Rockies -128 (256/200) for Game 2
Notes:
If Cardinals lose first game of the double header, bet them the 2nd game.
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Posted:
#539
Plays for 6/1/13 P1:
All lines updated. Let's throw out a prayer, fellas. We're gonna need it.
4 game chase play:
#185: Angels -238 (5403/2270) for Game 4
#205: Mets -110 (444/404) for Game 2
#196: Dbacks +1.5 -170 (476/280) for Game 2
#197: Tigers -133 (314/236) for Game 2
#198: Tigers -133 (314/236) for Game 2
#199: Angels -238 (850/357) for Game 2
#201: Phillies -122 (587/481) for Game 2
#204: Indians -130 (338/260) for Game 2
#207: Tigers -133 (798/600) for Game 1 [6u]
#208: Rockies -128 (768/600) for Game 1 [6u]
#209: Rockies -128 (128/100) for Game 1
#210: Braves -138 (828/600) for Game 1 [6u]
Notes:
Transferred a total of 15 units from Chase #185 to other chases indicated as 6u. 54 units is more than enough on a single game 4. Saying a huge card would be an understatement.
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Posted:
#540
Plays for 6/1/13 P2:
Series Chase Plays:
#53: Angels -238 (850/357) for Game 2
#54: Dbacks +121 (200/242) for Game 2
#55: Pirates -132 (284/215) for Game 2
#57: Braves -138 (287/208) for Game 2
#59: Rockies -128 (256/200) for Game 2
#51: Cardinals -150 (150/100) for Game 1
#58: Cardinals -150 (150/100) for Game 1
Notes:
If Cardinals lose first game of the double header, bet them the 2nd game.
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Posted:
#543
Niners,
I greatly appreciate you posting your system plays here, so take what follows as only constructive criticism. You have WAY too many plays going on at the same time for good bankroll management.
I figured I'd do some math since my actual bank total wasn't growing despite showing all those winning cleared chases. Here are the results just for today:
Total bets made (today)=-13425
Pending bets (not including today)=-1900 (assumes an even odds bet at the pending level, so this is very optimistic)
Winnings=+8740
NET=-6585
If you play each unit at the suggested 0.5% of your original bank, this NET represents about 1/3 of your roll is outstanding!! That's not good.
Since my own roll was small at the start of this, I purposely chose to reduce your plays, which means I haven't won as much, but I don't have as much outstanding either. The series chase plays are the easiest to understand & pick versus the 4-game chases, since I don't know your systems & what those plays are going to be in the future. I'd suggest eliminating plays with odds over -200 or so since that puts way too many units on the line to win just 1 unit compounded in a 4 game chase & doesn't even follow good MLB single game rules of thumb for ML odds.
I greatly appreciate you posting your system plays here, so take what follows as only constructive criticism. You have WAY too many plays going on at the same time for good bankroll management.
I figured I'd do some math since my actual bank total wasn't growing despite showing all those winning cleared chases. Here are the results just for today:
Total bets made (today)=-13425
Pending bets (not including today)=-1900 (assumes an even odds bet at the pending level, so this is very optimistic)
Winnings=+8740
NET=-6585
If you play each unit at the suggested 0.5% of your original bank, this NET represents about 1/3 of your roll is outstanding!! That's not good.
Since my own roll was small at the start of this, I purposely chose to reduce your plays, which means I haven't won as much, but I don't have as much outstanding either. The series chase plays are the easiest to understand & pick versus the 4-game chases, since I don't know your systems & what those plays are going to be in the future. I'd suggest eliminating plays with odds over -200 or so since that puts way too many units on the line to win just 1 unit compounded in a 4 game chase & doesn't even follow good MLB single game rules of thumb for ML odds.
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Posted:
#545
Hardtimes85:
Understood and point taken. Thanks for the analysis. I'm considering playing the -1.5 when such heavy chalk chases like this happens, it will significantly reduce the juice. It isn't exactly the system play but it dramatically reduces the amount risk.
Thanks again for the feedback.
As far as too many plays, yes it is a lot of plays. If anyone can't afford to play them all, I would suggest lowering your unit size or picking the chases you like and play those. Just a fyi, there are other systems I play as well so I have tons of action everyday and I have been doing this for years and it's been working for me.
Again, chase systems aren't good for the heart, it's EXTREMELY high risk high reward.
good luck everyone
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Posted:
#546
I play this system exactly how niners suggests (at 100 per unit). The only thing i question is if we should spread units around on game 4s. Did you do that in the past niners? Today we are playing a lot of 6 unit game ones which if they go to game 4 we will be in trouble (or have to split again). Niner why not just ride the system as designed and accept there may be some game 4 losses but overall we will come out ahead. I am running into a little bit of trouble with the 3 unit and now 6 unit game ones were i think i would of rather took my chances on a full bet for game 4 (on the dodgers plus 1.5 last time and the angels tonight even though that would be a bet of about 8000. What do you think niner?
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