Multiple MLB Chase Systems (+250 units in 2012)

Interesting breakout of system 2.  Not sure if you have the data for a breakout of system 1.

Leads me to think that maybe if you did a two game chase you would still be quite profitable, and would reduce some of the risk that is involved in chasing.  I strongly believe in chase methods myself.  In fact 95% of all my wajors are associated with some sort of chase methodology.

Look at the high percentage of wins occuring in games 1 and 2 for system 2.  If you were to lose the first two games, then perhaps you start over with games 3 and 4.  You're not necessarily eliminating losses, but your gaining some bankroll protection

The data from your system 1 would be more intriguing due to the fact it had double the amount of wins and losses.  How many of those went to games 3 or 4?

While this method might cut profits it definitely protects against the huge loss.  Just a thought and trying to help a guy that is trying to help others. 

Once again, very much appreciate your efforts and good luck!  Friend request sent if you would like to discuss this any further.

 

Ninersfan, your talk about the pirates worried me, so I didn't take that game at all, I transferred those units to the mets yesterday which Lost, but bet the mets again today to get it all back. 

Thanks for the insight, sweetdick, I appreciate the constructive feedback. You may be onto something with that. I've been doing a better job at tracking and doing the breakdown by game this year, it'll be interesting to see how it turns out. I'm a little hesitant to change it up at this point but it's definitely something to monitor and if need be, make the proper adjustments as needed later on in the year or maybe once the year is over when we have more data. Thanks again.

4 game chase play:
#73: Mets -134 (299/223) for Game 2 Winner
#75: Mets -134 (134/100) for Game 1 Winner
#74: Phillies -140 (301/215) for Game 2 Loser

YTD: 65-1 -307
Game 1: 42 (#28, #29 pending)
Game 2: 15 (#39, #48, #56 pending)
Game 3: 5 (#37, #46, #64, #74 pending)
Game 4: 2
Losses: 1

Niners, I think you need to use some kind of filters for your system. With 65-1 and you are down on the money, I don't think you will ever make a profit. Just my 2 cents as a friend. GL with your plays. 

I should add you have 4 games 3 pending for 28 units loss, 9 units for game 2, 2 units for game 1, for a total of 39 units loss pending that haven't calculate in your loss. Sorry If i miscalculate it but that is what I see based on your information.

Hey vong, if you don't like his system or plays, don't play them.  Don't come in here and try to bring down a guy's good work.  He is offering his system for free.   If you don't like it, move on. 

4 game chase play:
#46: Tigers -165 (823/499) for Game 3
#48: Phillies -212 (490/231) for Game 2
#56: Phillies -212 (589/278) for Game 2
#74: Phillies -212 (1094/516) for Game 3
#76: Braves -168 (168/100) for Game 1
#77: Padres +105 (100/105) for Game 1
#78: Tigers -165 (165/100) for Game 1
#79: Tigers -165 (165/100) for Game 1
#80: Royals -145 (145/100) for Game 1
#81: Royals -145 (145/100) for Game 1

good luck!

YTD: 65-1 -307
Game 1: 42 (#28, #29 pending)
Game 2: 15 (#39, #48, #56 pending)
Game 3: 5 (#37, #46, #64, #74 pending)
Game 4: 2
Losses: 1

Good luck today buddy!

 

Vongs entitled to his opinion & his opinion is 100% correct.

Thanks Gold. Please ignore him who doesn't know what he is talking about.  

Another thing I thought of that you might want to factor into your systems is playing all dog plays on the RL +1.5.  If you have the time Ninersfan, backtest that to see if it eliminates some of your losses.

While it's more costly up front, it may very well shorten some of those series and eliminate a few of the losses.

Again, just trying to help a brother out.  Best of luck to you!

Gl niners

Hey niners, thanks for your hard work, do you work alone or do you have a team of people analyzing baseball for your picks.

Congrats on that Padres pick, good call buddy!  

That was a nice win to start off the day, let's get the big fish (tigers, phillies) now.

 GL Kemosabe

 

 

Tigers nice comeback

so many chases, seems a lot to keep track.  one series loss can wipe out all your profit?  Does not seem right.

4 game chase play:
#46: Tigers -165 (823/499) for Game 3 Winner
#48: Phillies -212 (490/231) for Game 2 Winner
#56: Phillies -212 (589/278) for Game 2 Winner
#74: Phillies -212 (1094/516) for Game 3 Winner
#76: Braves -168 (168/100) for Game 1 Loser, on to Game 2 on 5/3/13
#77: Padres +105 (100/105) for Game 1 Winner
#78: Tigers -165 (165/100) for Game 1 Winner
#79: Tigers -165 (165/100) for Game 1 Winner
#80: Royals -145 (145/100) for Game 1 Postponed, replay Game 1 on 5/3/13
#81: Royals -145 (145/100) for Game 1 Postponed, replay Game 1 on 5/3/13

YTD: 71-1 +398
Game 1: 45 (#28, #29, #80, #81 pending)
Game 2: 17 (#39 pending)
Game 3: 7 (#37, #64 pending)
Game 4: 2
Losses: 1

4 game chase play:
#37: Brewers -117 (688/588) for Game 3
#64: Dbacks -128 (591/462) for Game 3
#76: Braves -185 (496/268) for Game 2
#80: Royals -150 (150/100) for Game 1
#81: Royals -150 (150/100) for Game 1
#82: Braves -185 (185/100) for Game 1
#83: Rangers (128/100) for Game 1
#84: Rangers (128/100) for Game 1
#85: Reds (107/100) for Game 1
#86: Reds (107/100) for Game 1

3 game chase play:
#1: Yankees -148 (148/100) for Game 1
#2: Yankees -148 (148/100) for Game 1
#3: Braves -185 (370/200) for Game 1 [2u special]
#4: Royals -150 (150/100) for Game 1
#5: Indians -150 (150/100) for Game 1

#37: Brewers -117 (688/588) for Game 3
I'm sorry but I don't understand what you mean by game 3. Do you mean because they have lost 2 games in a row that this is the 3rd game they are playing since their last win? Because this is the 2nd game in the series so I know that's not what you are referencing there. Forgive my ignorance.

Keith it's game 3 bc on his previous two tries at game 37 he lost therefore is on game 3 of that specific chase (it's not always the same team in the chase, it's a game that fits his system).

4 game chase play:
#37: Brewers -117 (688/588) for Game 3 Loser, Game 4 TBD
#64: Dbacks -128 (591/462) for Game 3 Loser, on to Game 4 on 5/4/13
#76: Braves -185 (496/268) for Game 2 Loser, on to Game 3 on 5/4/13
#80: Royals -150 (150/100) for Game 1 Postponed
#81: Royals -150 (150/100) for Game 1 Postponed
#82: Braves -185 (185/100) for Game 1 Loser, on to Game 2 on 5/4/13
#83: Rangers (128/100) for Game 1 Winner
#84: Rangers (128/100) for Game 1 Winner
#85: Reds (107/100) for Game 1 Winner
#86: Reds (107/100) for Game 1 Winner

3 game chase play:
#1: Yankees -148 (148/100) for Game 1 Loser, on to Game 2 on 5/4/13
#2: Yankees -148 (148/100) for Game 1 Loser, on to Game 2 on 5/4/13
#3: Braves -185 (370/200) for Game 1 Loser, on to Game 2 on 5/4/13
#4: Royals -150 (150/100) for Game 1 Postponed
#5: Indians -150 (150/100) for Game 1 Winner