MLB picks using Monte Carlo simulation

haha man you bet everything :).. I think imma only stick to baseball and hockey + nba.. its what i know :D 

Good luck today , lets get it! 

I like action.  Hockey and basketball were good yesterday.  I have statistics on everything.  Not one basketball game I like today.  Soccer is already 1-0.

Kings -2.5 (1x)

GL brother

These are tomorrows plays

whats going on with the hockey system? 

i mean the baseball 

i have been doing this for a long time(i'm old).any data showing how big the swings can be?ie;from - to +.109 units is impressive,but what kind of swings would you have to endiure.lot of games everyday.appreciate all the work you've put in,just wondering from that aspect how ugly it can get before it swings back to median.

Curous to know how you model makes assumptions on what matchups it should consider - specifically what RP's would be the most likely to come in late in the game.  Do you base it on probabilistics (of appearing in the next game) due to previous IP's?  If a team is heavy on Lefty hitting, do the Lefty RP's get more weight?

Also - how much weight do you put on historical data?  I have always found that to be pretty unreliable once you normalize it over a large population.

Best of luck to you.  Would be cool if this bears out profitable over a couple of seasons.

Swings are big sometimes but I use a a unit as 1/3 of a percent of my bankroll. 

Probable relief pitchers are calculated based on potential matchups and normal operations that club.  Some times have a 7,8,9 inning guy and don't do much with matchups.  Some teams matchup until the 9th inning.

Kings -2.5 (1x)

Baseball system is ok.  It is a grind.  Hockey lol is awesome right now.

Hawks -4.5

 your system needs some tuning huh -_-

3-5 +4.95 units.  +4.61 units overall.  The totals system is going back to the drawing board will be rebeta tested in two weeks with some tweaks.  I guess Mike would rather win them all than make money.  The only system that I am claiming is baseball runline/moneyline.  Someone asked what I was playing so I put my whole card up for information.  I guarantee +100 units up this season by end of baseball season.

Now one could wager Angels -179 (3x) today.  

I assume at some point in the season, I will have a swing of 20 units either way in a short period of time.  Those are about as big as it gets.  In my back testing, their was one variation slightly larger but it is rare.

GL, 

Now that was a good night.

Great night ramsey...i've been following since beginning of baseball season.  I'll keep following you throughout 

6-4 +9.62 units on the day +14.23 units overall.  The totals beta is still struggling but went 3-1 1.8 units.  I am going to tweak it for the next week.  I have found a couple of things in the totals beta that I hated.  We will continue tweaking.  

Anyone just picking this post up.  The post tracks the baseball runline/moneyline system and a beta test for a baseball totals system.  The rest of my plays are only posted because someone requested much earlier.  I make all the plays I post, but really stand proudly behind the baseball runline/moneyline system.  I love action and can generated some major big swings, but the trendline is always up.