MLB picks using Monte Carlo simulation
Hey there good luck with your system. I am trying out my own type of system as well. I am using the contest to keep track of the records and units. Essentially all I'm doing is once a new series begins, whichever teams win the first game, I play the opposite for game 2, if they lose again, I double the unit for game 3,
Do you know what percentage of series are sweeps? How often does a bottom dweller sweep a power team? How many units do you lose if the Mariners sweep the Rangers? If Joe Blanton wins game 1 for the Phillies, the next two pitchers are Halladay and Lee what are the odds of a sweep? In a vacuum, you will will most of the time, but win you lose it will be a big loss. With some common since and statistics applied, this could work. Too many factors to apply to use this all the way.
Hey there good luck with your system. I am trying out my own type of system as well. I am using the contest to keep track of the records and units. Essentially all I'm doing is once a new series begins, whichever teams win the first game, I play the opposite for game 2, if they lose again, I double the unit for game 3,
Do you know what percentage of series are sweeps? How often does a bottom dweller sweep a power team? How many units do you lose if the Mariners sweep the Rangers? If Joe Blanton wins game 1 for the Phillies, the next two pitchers are Halladay and Lee what are the odds of a sweep? In a vacuum, you will will most of the time, but win you lose it will be a big loss. With some common since and statistics applied, this could work. Too many factors to apply to use this all the way.
Fridays plays
Orioles +1.5 125 (2x)
Rangers -1.5 +100 (2x)
Fridays plays
Orioles +1.5 125 (2x)
Rangers -1.5 +100 (2x)
Do you know what percentage of series are sweeps? How often does a bottom dweller sweep a power team? How many units do you lose if the Mariners sweep the Rangers? If Joe Blanton wins game 1 for the Phillies, the next two pitchers are Halladay and Lee what are the odds of a sweep? In a vacuum, you will will most of the time, but win you lose it will be a big loss. With some common since and statistics applied, this could work. Too many factors to apply to use this all the way.
I have not finished my complete research from last year, but from what i have noticed the better teams do not get swept so often. and if it were the case, if seattle was playing texas and seattle wins game 1, i place 1 unit on texas for game 2, if they dont win i place 2 units. Yes i know what you mean because chances are your juicing texas especially against seattle but even with the juice i would probably lose 6 units total on texas iif they got swept to the mariners.
I can tell you so far, that there has been 2 sweeps thus far. Yankees swept baltimore and Dodgers swept Pittzburgh. But in both cases Baltimore and Pittzburgh were underdogs all the way through, so I would have lost 6 units on the 2 teams combined but I have made 13.8 units in wins, and thus my overall is 7.8 units made.
Yes it is difficult to see this all the way through, in fact part of my data research is that I am doing a month by month breakdown for every team. This way I can see when most of the sweeps do occur and I can analyze. I can tell you 1 reason I skip the first week of baseball is because for some reason teams like Boston and Yankees dont start well. I hope to finish gathering info for the other 20 teams from last year so I can see where the numbers stand.
Do you know what percentage of series are sweeps? How often does a bottom dweller sweep a power team? How many units do you lose if the Mariners sweep the Rangers? If Joe Blanton wins game 1 for the Phillies, the next two pitchers are Halladay and Lee what are the odds of a sweep? In a vacuum, you will will most of the time, but win you lose it will be a big loss. With some common since and statistics applied, this could work. Too many factors to apply to use this all the way.
I have not finished my complete research from last year, but from what i have noticed the better teams do not get swept so often. and if it were the case, if seattle was playing texas and seattle wins game 1, i place 1 unit on texas for game 2, if they dont win i place 2 units. Yes i know what you mean because chances are your juicing texas especially against seattle but even with the juice i would probably lose 6 units total on texas iif they got swept to the mariners.
I can tell you so far, that there has been 2 sweeps thus far. Yankees swept baltimore and Dodgers swept Pittzburgh. But in both cases Baltimore and Pittzburgh were underdogs all the way through, so I would have lost 6 units on the 2 teams combined but I have made 13.8 units in wins, and thus my overall is 7.8 units made.
Yes it is difficult to see this all the way through, in fact part of my data research is that I am doing a month by month breakdown for every team. This way I can see when most of the sweeps do occur and I can analyze. I can tell you 1 reason I skip the first week of baseball is because for some reason teams like Boston and Yankees dont start well. I hope to finish gathering info for the other 20 teams from last year so I can see where the numbers stand.
Rangers -159 (1x)
Rays 126 (1x)
Reds 111 (1x)
Brewers 103 (1x)
Tigers 116 (2x)
Astros 159 (1x)
Diamondbacks 137 (3x)
Giants -148 (1x)
Dodgers -133 (3x)
Rangers -1.5 100 (1x)
Blue Jays -1.5 130 (1x)
A's u7
Mets u7.5
Capitals 165 (1x)
Senators 151 (1x)
Sharks 153 (1x)
Blackhawks 100 (1x)
Manchester City -180 (2x)
Bayarn Munich -370 (1x)
Inter 180 (1x)
Barcelona -450 (1x)
Rangers -159 (1x)
Rays 126 (1x)
Reds 111 (1x)
Brewers 103 (1x)
Tigers 116 (2x)
Astros 159 (1x)
Diamondbacks 137 (3x)
Giants -148 (1x)
Dodgers -133 (3x)
Rangers -1.5 100 (1x)
Blue Jays -1.5 130 (1x)
A's u7
Mets u7.5
Capitals 165 (1x)
Senators 151 (1x)
Sharks 153 (1x)
Blackhawks 100 (1x)
Manchester City -180 (2x)
Bayarn Munich -370 (1x)
Inter 180 (1x)
Barcelona -450 (1x)
Angels 112 (3x)
Rangers -159 (1x)
Rays 126 (1x)
Reds 111 (1x)
Brewers 103 (1x)
Tigers 116 (2x)
Astros 159 (1x)
Diamondbacks 137 (3x)
Giants -148 (1x)
Dodgers -133 (3x)
Rangers -1.5 100 (1x)
Blue Jays -1.5 130 (1x)
A's u7
Mets u7.5
Capitals 165 (1x)
Senators 151 (1x)
Sharks 153 (1x)
Blackhawks 100 (1x)
Manchester City -180 (2x)
Bayarn Munich -370 (1x)
Inter 180 (1x)
Barcelona -450 (1x)
Angels 112 (3x)
Rangers -159 (1x)
Rays 126 (1x)
Reds 111 (1x)
Brewers 103 (1x)
Tigers 116 (2x)
Astros 159 (1x)
Diamondbacks 137 (3x)
Giants -148 (1x)
Dodgers -133 (3x)
Rangers -1.5 100 (1x)
Blue Jays -1.5 130 (1x)
A's u7
Mets u7.5
Capitals 165 (1x)
Senators 151 (1x)
Sharks 153 (1x)
Blackhawks 100 (1x)
Manchester City -180 (2x)
Bayarn Munich -370 (1x)
Inter 180 (1x)
Barcelona -450 (1x)
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