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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    MLB picks using Monte Carlo simulation

    «First Previous 678 ... 181920 Next Last»
    Sarkhan
    Parlay4Life775
    EZrider
    pramsey1843
    alangrrbs
    ...
    Participants:
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    Views: 87813
    Posts: 499
    «First Previous 678 ... 181920 Next Last»
     
    Sarkhan
    Sarkhan
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    Joined: Sep, 2011
    Posts: 41
    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 5:03 AM ET #126

    Hey there good luck with your system. I am trying out my own type of system as well. I am using the contest to keep track of the records and units. Essentially all I'm doing is once a new series begins, whichever teams win the first game, I play the opposite for game 2, if they lose again, I double the unit for game 3,

    Example: jays vs cleveland. Jays win game 1, 1 unit on cleveland game 2. Cleveland loses again. 2 units on game 3.


     Although on the contest I am using 300 and 500 unit bets because there is no 250 option and I am recording separate data with $100 and $200 unit bets in my spreadsheet. In a 4 game series I am doing $50 then 100 Then 200. I am not actually betting this year as I am just collecting data. I have done research on last year but I have only collected from 10 teams but they have produced 30 units but that can go either way once I collect data from all 30 teams.

    Essentially the whole purpose of this system is the less sweeps that occur the more money will be made. 

    I skip the first week of all sports so from series #2 the system is 12-8 with +7.80 units.

    Sorry for posting this in your thread just wanted your opinion about this system. Anyways ill be following up all season, best of luck!
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    Hey there good luck with your system. I am trying out my own type of system as well. I am using the contest to keep track of the records and units. Essentially all I'm doing is once a new series begins, whichever teams win the first game, I play the opposite for game 2, if they lose again, I double the unit for game 3,

    Example: jays vs cleveland. Jays win game 1, 1 unit on cleveland game 2. Cleveland loses again. 2 units on game 3.


     Although on the contest I am using 300 and 500 unit bets because there is no 250 option and I am recording separate data with $100 and $200 unit bets in my spreadsheet. In a 4 game series I am doing $50 then 100 Then 200. I am not actually betting this year as I am just collecting data. I have done research on last year but I have only collected from 10 teams but they have produced 30 units but that can go either way once I collect data from all 30 teams.

    Essentially the whole purpose of this system is the less sweeps that occur the more money will be made. 

    I skip the first week of all sports so from series #2 the system is 12-8 with +7.80 units.

    Sorry for posting this in your thread just wanted your opinion about this system. Anyways ill be following up all season, best of luck!
     
    Parlay4Life775
    Parlay4Life775
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 6:04 AM ET #127

    What teams do you think i can do run line with?

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    What teams do you think i can do run line with?

     
    EZrider
    EZrider
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 8:09 AM ET #128

    Cool
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    Cool
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 8:23 AM ET #129

    I still like

    Wizards +10.5
    Mavericks -3 
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    I still like

    Wizards +10.5
    Mavericks -3 
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 8:26 AM ET #130

    If I were playing runlines
    Giants, Nationals, Dodgers, Tigers, Orioles, Rangers

    Orioles and Rangers are my two favorites.
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    If I were playing runlines
    Giants, Nationals, Dodgers, Tigers, Orioles, Rangers

    Orioles and Rangers are my two favorites.
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 8:27 AM ET #131

    Quote Originally Posted by pramsey1843:


    Add Orioles +1.5 125 (2x)

    Added Rangers -1.5 +100 (2x)
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    Quote Originally Posted by pramsey1843:


    Add Orioles +1.5 125 (2x)

    Added Rangers -1.5 +100 (2x)
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posts: 344
    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 12:02 PM ET #132

    Quote Originally Posted by Sarkhan:

    Hey there good luck with your system. I am trying out my own type of system as well. I am using the contest to keep track of the records and units. Essentially all I'm doing is once a new series begins, whichever teams win the first game, I play the opposite for game 2, if they lose again, I double the unit for game 3,

    Example: jays vs cleveland. Jays win game 1, 1 unit on cleveland game 2. Cleveland loses again. 2 units on game 3.


     Although on the contest I am using 300 and 500 unit bets because there is no 250 option and I am recording separate data with $100 and $200 unit bets in my spreadsheet. In a 4 game series I am doing $50 then 100 Then 200. I am not actually betting this year as I am just collecting data. I have done research on last year but I have only collected from 10 teams but they have produced 30 units but that can go either way once I collect data from all 30 teams.

    Essentially the whole purpose of this system is the less sweeps that occur the more money will be made. 

    I skip the first week of all sports so from series #2 the system is 12-8 with +7.80 units.

    Sorry for posting this in your thread just wanted your opinion about this system. Anyways ill be following up all season, best of luck!


    Do you know what percentage of series are sweeps?  How often does a bottom dweller sweep a power team?  How many units do you lose if the Mariners sweep the Rangers?  If Joe Blanton wins game 1 for the Phillies, the next two pitchers are Halladay and Lee what are the odds of a sweep?  In a vacuum, you will will most of the time, but win you lose it will be a big loss.  With some common since and statistics applied, this could work.  Too many factors to apply to use this all the way.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarkhan:

    Hey there good luck with your system. I am trying out my own type of system as well. I am using the contest to keep track of the records and units. Essentially all I'm doing is once a new series begins, whichever teams win the first game, I play the opposite for game 2, if they lose again, I double the unit for game 3,

    Example: jays vs cleveland. Jays win game 1, 1 unit on cleveland game 2. Cleveland loses again. 2 units on game 3.


     Although on the contest I am using 300 and 500 unit bets because there is no 250 option and I am recording separate data with $100 and $200 unit bets in my spreadsheet. In a 4 game series I am doing $50 then 100 Then 200. I am not actually betting this year as I am just collecting data. I have done research on last year but I have only collected from 10 teams but they have produced 30 units but that can go either way once I collect data from all 30 teams.

    Essentially the whole purpose of this system is the less sweeps that occur the more money will be made. 

    I skip the first week of all sports so from series #2 the system is 12-8 with +7.80 units.

    Sorry for posting this in your thread just wanted your opinion about this system. Anyways ill be following up all season, best of luck!


    Do you know what percentage of series are sweeps?  How often does a bottom dweller sweep a power team?  How many units do you lose if the Mariners sweep the Rangers?  If Joe Blanton wins game 1 for the Phillies, the next two pitchers are Halladay and Lee what are the odds of a sweep?  In a vacuum, you will will most of the time, but win you lose it will be a big loss.  With some common since and statistics applied, this could work.  Too many factors to apply to use this all the way.
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 12:03 PM ET #133

    All of todays picks are below


    Quote Originally Posted by pramsey1843:

    Fridays plays
    Angels 132 (3x)
    Cubs 173 (3x)
    Rays 113 (5x)
    Tigers -105 (5x)
    Reds 134 (2x)
    Orioles 175 (2x)
    Brewers 120 (2x)
    Diamondbacks 102 (6x)
    Dodgers -123 (2x)
    Indians 115 (2x)

    Rays u8.5
    Cubs u7.5
    Giants u6.5
    Phillies u6.5
    Diamondbacks u8.5
    A's u6.5


    Celtics -5  (2x)
    Wizards 12.5  (3x)
    Rockets -4 (2x)
    Kings 15 (3x)
    Bucks -3 (5x)
    Lakers -1.5  (3x)
    Mavericks -1.5   (5x)

    Panthers 108 (2x)
    Red Wings 109 (2x)
    Flyers 176 (2x)
    Kings 157 (2x)



    Orioles +1.5 125 (2x)
    Rangers -1.5 +100 (2x)
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    All of todays picks are below


    Quote Originally Posted by pramsey1843:

    Fridays plays
    Angels 132 (3x)
    Cubs 173 (3x)
    Rays 113 (5x)
    Tigers -105 (5x)
    Reds 134 (2x)
    Orioles 175 (2x)
    Brewers 120 (2x)
    Diamondbacks 102 (6x)
    Dodgers -123 (2x)
    Indians 115 (2x)

    Rays u8.5
    Cubs u7.5
    Giants u6.5
    Phillies u6.5
    Diamondbacks u8.5
    A's u6.5


    Celtics -5  (2x)
    Wizards 12.5  (3x)
    Rockets -4 (2x)
    Kings 15 (3x)
    Bucks -3 (5x)
    Lakers -1.5  (3x)
    Mavericks -1.5   (5x)

    Panthers 108 (2x)
    Red Wings 109 (2x)
    Flyers 176 (2x)
    Kings 157 (2x)



    Orioles +1.5 125 (2x)
    Rangers -1.5 +100 (2x)
     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 12:52 PM ET #134

    Good Luck today ramsey...I've been with you from day 1 in baseball...tailing your NBA picks today.  Keep up the good picks, and thanks to you and your computer for all the hard work.
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    Good Luck today ramsey...I've been with you from day 1 in baseball...tailing your NBA picks today.  Keep up the good picks, and thanks to you and your computer for all the hard work.
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 1:08 PM ET #135

    I figured Friday the 13th was a lucky day to play bigger than normal.
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    I figured Friday the 13th was a lucky day to play bigger than normal.
     
    Sarkhan
    Sarkhan
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 1:54 PM ET #136

    Quote Originally Posted by pramsey1843:



    Do you know what percentage of series are sweeps?  How often does a bottom dweller sweep a power team?  How many units do you lose if the Mariners sweep the Rangers?  If Joe Blanton wins game 1 for the Phillies, the next two pitchers are Halladay and Lee what are the odds of a sweep?  In a vacuum, you will will most of the time, but win you lose it will be a big loss.  With some common since and statistics applied, this could work.  Too many factors to apply to use this all the way.

    I have not finished my complete research from last year, but from what i have noticed the better teams do not get swept so often. and if it were the case, if seattle was playing texas and seattle wins game 1, i place 1 unit on texas for game 2, if they dont win i place 2 units. Yes i know what you mean because chances are your juicing texas especially against seattle but even with the juice i would probably lose 6 units total on texas iif they got swept to the mariners.

    I can tell you so far, that there has been 2 sweeps thus far. Yankees swept baltimore and Dodgers swept Pittzburgh. But in both cases Baltimore and Pittzburgh were underdogs all the way through, so I would have lost 6 units on the 2 teams combined but I have made 13.8 units in wins, and thus my overall is 7.8 units made.

    Yes it is  difficult to see this all the way through, in fact part of my data research is that I am doing a month by month breakdown for every team. This way I can see when most of the sweeps do occur and I can analyze. I can tell you 1 reason I skip the first week of baseball is because for some reason teams like Boston and Yankees dont start well. I hope to finish gathering info for the other 20 teams from last year so I can see where the numbers stand.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pramsey1843:



    Do you know what percentage of series are sweeps?  How often does a bottom dweller sweep a power team?  How many units do you lose if the Mariners sweep the Rangers?  If Joe Blanton wins game 1 for the Phillies, the next two pitchers are Halladay and Lee what are the odds of a sweep?  In a vacuum, you will will most of the time, but win you lose it will be a big loss.  With some common since and statistics applied, this could work.  Too many factors to apply to use this all the way.

    I have not finished my complete research from last year, but from what i have noticed the better teams do not get swept so often. and if it were the case, if seattle was playing texas and seattle wins game 1, i place 1 unit on texas for game 2, if they dont win i place 2 units. Yes i know what you mean because chances are your juicing texas especially against seattle but even with the juice i would probably lose 6 units total on texas iif they got swept to the mariners.

    I can tell you so far, that there has been 2 sweeps thus far. Yankees swept baltimore and Dodgers swept Pittzburgh. But in both cases Baltimore and Pittzburgh were underdogs all the way through, so I would have lost 6 units on the 2 teams combined but I have made 13.8 units in wins, and thus my overall is 7.8 units made.

    Yes it is  difficult to see this all the way through, in fact part of my data research is that I am doing a month by month breakdown for every team. This way I can see when most of the sweeps do occur and I can analyze. I can tell you 1 reason I skip the first week of baseball is because for some reason teams like Boston and Yankees dont start well. I hope to finish gathering info for the other 20 teams from last year so I can see where the numbers stand.

     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 2:20 PM ET #137

    One thing to look at is bullpen availability and fatigue.  Even early in the season some bullpens have been leaned on quite heavily.  It was one of the final tweaks to my system that helped tremendously.

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    One thing to look at is bullpen availability and fatigue.  Even early in the season some bullpens have been leaned on quite heavily.  It was one of the final tweaks to my system that helped tremendously.

     
    Parlay4Life775
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 4:24 PM ET #138

    Toronto is playing well im nervous to take BAL
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    Toronto is playing well im nervous to take BAL
     
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 4:47 PM ET #139

    Added Giants -172 (3x)
               Rangers -146 (3x)
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    Added Giants -172 (3x)
               Rangers -146 (3x)
     
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 4:47 PM ET #140

    I totally agree blue jays are playing great
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    I totally agree blue jays are playing great
     
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 4:48 PM ET #141

    As of right now, my computer is about to start 0-3 also

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    As of right now, my computer is about to start 0-3 also

     
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2012 - 12:29 AM ET #142

    Looking like an overall good night unless things just fall apart from where they are right now.  Dbacks loss hurt my baseball system, but other stuff looking good.
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    Looking like an overall good night unless things just fall apart from where they are right now.  Dbacks loss hurt my baseball system, but other stuff looking good.
     
    Mike51O
    Mike51O
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2012 - 1:32 AM ET #143

    how many wins we have today? just from baseball pramsey.. 
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    how many wins we have today? just from baseball pramsey.. 
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2012 - 1:44 AM ET #144

    8-6 +0.24 units today -2.29 overall

    totals beta  16-26 -12.6
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    8-6 +0.24 units today -2.29 overall

    totals beta  16-26 -12.6
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2012 - 1:58 AM ET #145

    Angels 112 (3x)
    Rangers -159 (1x)
    Rays 126 (1x)
    Reds 111 (1x)
    Brewers 103 (1x)
    Tigers 116 (2x)
    Astros 159 (1x)
    Diamondbacks 137 (3x)
    Giants -148 (1x)
    Dodgers -133 (3x)
    Rangers -1.5 100 (1x)
    Blue Jays -1.5 130 (1x)

    A's u7
    Mets u7.5

    Capitals 165 (1x)
    Senators 151 (1x)
    Sharks 153   (1x)
    Blackhawks 100 (1x)

    Manchester City -180 (2x)
    Bayarn Munich -370  (1x)
    Inter 180 (1x)
    Barcelona -450 (1x)
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    Angels 112 (3x)
    Rangers -159 (1x)
    Rays 126 (1x)
    Reds 111 (1x)
    Brewers 103 (1x)
    Tigers 116 (2x)
    Astros 159 (1x)
    Diamondbacks 137 (3x)
    Giants -148 (1x)
    Dodgers -133 (3x)
    Rangers -1.5 100 (1x)
    Blue Jays -1.5 130 (1x)

    A's u7
    Mets u7.5

    Capitals 165 (1x)
    Senators 151 (1x)
    Sharks 153   (1x)
    Blackhawks 100 (1x)

    Manchester City -180 (2x)
    Bayarn Munich -370  (1x)
    Inter 180 (1x)
    Barcelona -450 (1x)
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2012 - 1:59 AM ET #146

    the above is tomorrow's plays
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    the above is tomorrow's plays
     
    Mike51O
    Mike51O
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2012 - 4:05 AM ET #147

    Hopefully we are hotter tomorrow.. :) 
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    Hopefully we are hotter tomorrow.. :) 
     
    Mike51O
    Mike51O
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2012 - 4:05 AM ET #148

    But can't complain about a winning day.. 
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    But can't complain about a winning day.. 
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2012 - 9:26 AM ET #149

    Dbacks was the swing game.   That game wins we have 12 unit winner.
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    Dbacks was the swing game.   That game wins we have 12 unit winner.
     
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2012 - 10:11 AM ET #150

    Quote Originally Posted by pramsey1843:

    Angels 112 (3x)
    Rangers -159 (1x)
    Rays 126 (1x)
    Reds 111 (1x)
    Brewers 103 (1x)
    Tigers 116 (2x)
    Astros 159 (1x)
    Diamondbacks 137 (3x)
    Giants -148 (1x)
    Dodgers -133 (3x)
    Rangers -1.5 100 (1x)
    Blue Jays -1.5 130 (1x)

    A's u7
    Mets u7.5

    Capitals 165 (1x)
    Senators 151 (1x)
    Sharks 153   (1x)
    Blackhawks 100 (1x)

    Manchester City -180 (2x)
    Bayarn Munich -370  (1x)
    Inter 180 (1x)
    Barcelona -450 (1x)

    UFC
    Thiago Silva 160    (1x)
    Paulo Thiago -150  (1x)

    Golf Matchups
    Zach Johnson +100 against Snedeker (1x)
    Boo Weekley -110 against Harris English (1x)
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    Quote Originally Posted by pramsey1843:

    Angels 112 (3x)
    Rangers -159 (1x)
    Rays 126 (1x)
    Reds 111 (1x)
    Brewers 103 (1x)
    Tigers 116 (2x)
    Astros 159 (1x)
    Diamondbacks 137 (3x)
    Giants -148 (1x)
    Dodgers -133 (3x)
    Rangers -1.5 100 (1x)
    Blue Jays -1.5 130 (1x)

    A's u7
    Mets u7.5

    Capitals 165 (1x)
    Senators 151 (1x)
    Sharks 153   (1x)
    Blackhawks 100 (1x)

    Manchester City -180 (2x)
    Bayarn Munich -370  (1x)
    Inter 180 (1x)
    Barcelona -450 (1x)

    UFC
    Thiago Silva 160    (1x)
    Paulo Thiago -150  (1x)

    Golf Matchups
    Zach Johnson +100 against Snedeker (1x)
    Boo Weekley -110 against Harris English (1x)
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