Posted:
#76
Quote Originally Posted by WiseGuys-R-Us:
We always seem to have varying opinions on a lot of games but I always like your input and always keep things friendly because I respect what you do. The definition of "VALUE" is An amount of goods, services, or money, considered to be a fair and suitable equivalent at a fair price or return.
We already know you don't play the "THEIR DUE" card, as we all know its better to ride a streak then attempt to predict when it will end. When you have a team that is 10-0 at home this season and traditionally always better at home. Since getting Manny from Boston the Dodgers record at home with him in the lineup (regular season) is 28-7 dating back to last year on August 1st (18-7 last year 10-0 this season). You have a below average ball club in general with the D-backs and a team that is even worse on the road. Since the all-star break last season is they are 37-51 on the road and have haven't hit lefties well. I know Stults isn't a big time pitcher by any means but he already shut these guys down and you are dealing with a team that is batting .091 against lefties on the road.
Whether you win this wager or not and I hope you do BOL
there is not a single OUNCE of value in this wager. The Value actually lies with the dodgers, and in fact yesterday even the Dodgers at -200 had value and more so when it dropped to -180. At -220 your break even point is 67% and with a 9-0 home record and winning 8 of the last 10 against the Padres that carried value. We know they won't go 20-0 or will they? At this point it isn't a HUGE deal of data to back things up but at only +130 range I'll promise you right now the D-Backs won't win this game tonight 44% of the time. 1-7 in the last 8 meetings and 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in LA.
Again you may win tonight, but the numbers don't support any value at the +130 range. If you would of waited until 9-10 PM when all the suckers in the world are down for the night and thats the last game of the evening you will be able to get the D-Backs at +150 no doubt. Then there maybe some value at that point.
We always seem to have varying opinions on a lot of games but I always like your input and always keep things friendly because I respect what you do. The definition of "VALUE" is An amount of goods, services, or money, considered to be a fair and suitable equivalent at a fair price or return.
We already know you don't play the "THEIR DUE" card, as we all know its better to ride a streak then attempt to predict when it will end. When you have a team that is 10-0 at home this season and traditionally always better at home. Since getting Manny from Boston the Dodgers record at home with him in the lineup (regular season) is 28-7 dating back to last year on August 1st (18-7 last year 10-0 this season). You have a below average ball club in general with the D-backs and a team that is even worse on the road. Since the all-star break last season is they are 37-51 on the road and have haven't hit lefties well. I know Stults isn't a big time pitcher by any means but he already shut these guys down and you are dealing with a team that is batting .091 against lefties on the road.
Whether you win this wager or not and I hope you do BOL
there is not a single OUNCE of value in this wager. The Value actually lies with the dodgers, and in fact yesterday even the Dodgers at -200 had value and more so when it dropped to -180. At -220 your break even point is 67% and with a 9-0 home record and winning 8 of the last 10 against the Padres that carried value. We know they won't go 20-0 or will they? At this point it isn't a HUGE deal of data to back things up but at only +130 range I'll promise you right now the D-Backs won't win this game tonight 44% of the time. 1-7 in the last 8 meetings and 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in LA. Again you may win tonight, but the numbers don't support any value at the +130 range. If you would of waited until 9-10 PM when all the suckers in the world are down for the night and thats the last game of the evening you will be able to get the D-Backs at +150 no doubt. Then there maybe some value at that point.
MEANT TO READ AT -200***************
0
You just have to keep it in perspective and keep the percentage of bankroll as low as possible to avoid feeling the full brunt of a bad losing streak. 
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