SHARPS PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION
TO ALL-STAR PITCHERS
There are some old school handicappers who like to fade (go against) any starting pitchers who were just announced for the All-Star team.
They believe:
*These players get nervous knowing they just got a lot of publicity for achieving such a big accomplishment.
*These players become targets for opponents, because everyone wants to have a big game against an 'All-Star' pitcher.
*These players starting thinking ahead to the big game, and lose focus for a mundane regular season game that nobody's going to remember in a few weeks.
*These players hold something back a little because they want to be at their best in front of a national TV audience and the best of their peers.
These same sharps also believe that backing many of the 'snubbed' guys is a great strategy too. Many bets from today through Sunday will consist of fading All-Stars and backing the near-misses.
They believe:
*The snubbed guys are fired up to have a peak outing so they can show everyone they deserved to go.
*The snubbed guys teammates are just as mad as they are because they believe he should have been named to the team as well, so they bring peak intensity to get him a win.
*The opponents don't get fired up, because it's just another game to them. They're not facing an 'All-Star' pitcher, so what's the big deal.
I always watch this closely myself. I have to say that I'm sympathetic to those strategies. I think they make sense. And, they probably do show a profit over the years. Old school guys tell you EVERYTHING they do shows a profit, but it's not always the case. I think these are generally sound strategies.
The problem is:
*Right after getting named to the 2009 National League All-Star team, Jason Marquis of Colorado threw an absolute gem Monday Night against Washington. It was a rare 1-0 game at altitude in Colorado. A truly great performance from a guy who should have been distracted.
*Right after getting snubbed for the 2009 National League All-Star team, Johnny Cueto of Cincinnati had one of the worst nights of his life. He didn't last even one full inning Monday in Philadelphia. The Phillies scored 10 in the first in a 22-1 victory. I know a lot of guys who liked Cueto as a dog in that game. It's rare that you get such a strong pitcher with that big a comeback (he was facing Cole Hamels). At least they knew quickly they weren't going to have to sweat the game.
*Right after getting snubbed for the 2009 American League All-Star team, Kevin Millwood of Texas got absolutely rocked in Anaheim by the Los Angeles Angels. The Rangers lost 9-4 after falling way behind early. I have to say that Millwood's snubbing was unbelievable. He finally has a defense behind him, was finally reminding everyone what he's capable of when not having to pitch in front of a bunch of DH's in a great hitter's park, and he has to sit home to watch the mediocre Tim Wakefield pitch in the All-Star game. Wakefield's a great guy I'm sure. He's not remotely having an All-Star season. Oddsmakers price him like a generic innings muncher. Millwood's been getting respect in the line because he's been mowing people down!
Anyway, those results obviously fly in the face of the traditional thinking about how to handicap this week. Maybe all three will see a reversal of fortune (got that phrase from the hot dog eating contest) if they pitch again this weekend right before the All-Star break.
Let me list the rest of the guys now so you can monitor their stats Tuesday Night through the weekend.
AMERICAN LEAGUE STARTING PITCHERS
Zack Greinke
Roy Halladay
Justin Verlander
Tim Wakefield (and his 4.30 ERA)
Mark Beurhle
Felix Hernandez
Josh Beckett
Edwin Jackson
There are always going to be some deserving guys left out. If I start to list them all in the stronger AL, it would be hard to know where to stop. Monitor media reports about teams who are mad their star didn't make it, and decide how you want to handle that in his start this week. To me, Wakefield is the only glaring error in that bunch. Really an inexplicable choice unless you're giving him a lifetime achievement award because he's in his 40's. I'm okay with that. Put Jamie Moyer on the National League roster so each team has an old survivor. Just don't tell me that Wakefield's an All-Star when he's lucked into a good record because of very high run support.
NATIONAL LEAGUE STARTING PITCHERS
Matt Cain
Ted Lilly (the only Cub on the team!)
Dan Haren
Tim Lincecum
Chad Billingsley
Josh Johnson
Johan Santana
Jason Marquis
Before the season started, the Chicago Cubs were supposed to be the best team in the National League. They ended up not getting anyone voted into the starting lineup...not getting anyone selected as a reserve, and only getting one pitcher on the staff when it was thought before the year that they'd have a deep rotation.
TED LILLY is the only Cub on the team!
That's a formidable list of starting pitchers. Some might gripe about Marquis because he's not as overpowering as the other guys. Let me tell you, anybody who can get people out and win games consistently in Colorado is doing a great job. The stat standards are different for Colorado pitchers. This was a nice selection in my book.
I probably won't get a chance to talk about this again before the break because there are some other topics I want to get to this week. Let me also mention that ace relievers may be 'given the day off' on Sunday because their teams want to give them a shot to perform well in Tuesday's All-Star game. Be careful laying prices with teams who will either be giving the guy or break, or throwing a guy who may be nervous about his pending appearance!
AL RELIEF PITCHERS: Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Brian Fuentes, Andrew Bailey (somebody from Oakland had to get picked).
NL RELIEF PITCHERS: Ryan Franklin, Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton, Francisco Rodriguez, Francisco Cordero.
Since we've got pitchers on the brain today, let's talk about strategies for evaluating pitchers as the season progresses.
I'd say that oddsmakers generally look at starting pitchers this way:
*Who are the sharps betting on?
*Who are the sharps betting against?
*Who are the squares betting on (less of an issue this year because public betting is way down, but probably the biggest issue in most years because oddsmakers really have to charge a high tax on the best pitchers of the big market teams)?
*Who are the squares betting against?
If an oddsmaker is really in synch with the betting patterns, he doesn't have to know the actual stats of the players! I think a lot of casual bettors would be surprised at how little some oddsmakers study stats. It's not that they're not paying attention to the sport. They're just looking at it from a different perspective.
*They need to know who the money is coming in on, so they can defend their employers against one-sided action and post a number that makes the 'popular' pitchers take the worst of it in the line.
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