KcF and Portman, id like to give u guys a full scout of ur Stros and Angels game. KcF states supposedly "they have all the metrics" is the only thing i ever say, is far from truth, i have written much here. Sure Astros overall hit lefties far better than righties, but u hav Varags here whos one of the hottest right now in mlb. He gets on stretches and dominates lesser lineups, which hou does have. He's throwin well, gettin ahead in counts, pitch efficient as well to limit pen work. He just got through TEX, SEA, and BAL. all 3 much better matchups. Harrell on the other hand has been good overall, but his stuff is not that good, he struggles with command and especially vs righties. Awful K/BB rate. Angels type of lineup, he really struggles and puts his weak pen in a bind, which ALSO has been struggling and dont have much talent there at all. Sure the Stros can win, Sweepin a much talent-laden lineup with a not so great pitcher/lineup matchup here is tough to pull from the Astros. I did back them with Norris and Lyles 1st 2 games, but after breakin down the metrics, u need Angels to just die at the plate and Vargas not pitch well at all to have great odds here, and i rather not is my take here. Winds blowing out to center with thunderstorms also in play here. GL
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KcF and Portman, id like to give u guys a full scout of ur Stros and Angels game. KcF states supposedly "they have all the metrics" is the only thing i ever say, is far from truth, i have written much here. Sure Astros overall hit lefties far better than righties, but u hav Varags here whos one of the hottest right now in mlb. He gets on stretches and dominates lesser lineups, which hou does have. He's throwin well, gettin ahead in counts, pitch efficient as well to limit pen work. He just got through TEX, SEA, and BAL. all 3 much better matchups. Harrell on the other hand has been good overall, but his stuff is not that good, he struggles with command and especially vs righties. Awful K/BB rate. Angels type of lineup, he really struggles and puts his weak pen in a bind, which ALSO has been struggling and dont have much talent there at all. Sure the Stros can win, Sweepin a much talent-laden lineup with a not so great pitcher/lineup matchup here is tough to pull from the Astros. I did back them with Norris and Lyles 1st 2 games, but after breakin down the metrics, u need Angels to just die at the plate and Vargas not pitch well at all to have great odds here, and i rather not is my take here. Winds blowing out to center with thunderstorms also in play here. GL
although you have some important bats struggling mightily On the Angels side, which is good for Harrell's odds. That should help if it they continue to not hit. But his stuff can be hit hard by those bats is my note here. Also Vargas is saavy when on, which he has been. He usually does very well vs young lineups which is what the Stros field today. You'll need Atuve and J.D martinez to really produce today, Atuve is great buts hes no #3, and J.D. been scuffling. Chris Carter needs to do well today, or stros in trouble. He's been homer happy, but the lineup today is very young with a lot of holes, K susceptible as well.
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although you have some important bats struggling mightily On the Angels side, which is good for Harrell's odds. That should help if it they continue to not hit. But his stuff can be hit hard by those bats is my note here. Also Vargas is saavy when on, which he has been. He usually does very well vs young lineups which is what the Stros field today. You'll need Atuve and J.D martinez to really produce today, Atuve is great buts hes no #3, and J.D. been scuffling. Chris Carter needs to do well today, or stros in trouble. He's been homer happy, but the lineup today is very young with a lot of holes, K susceptible as well.
KcF and Portman, id like to give u guys a full scout of ur Stros and Angels game. KcF states supposedly "they have all the metrics" is the only thing i ever say, is far from truth, i have written much here. Sure Astros overall hit lefties far better than righties, but u hav Varags here whos one of the hottest right now in mlb. He gets on stretches and dominates lesser lineups, which hou does have. He's throwin well, gettin ahead in counts, pitch efficient as well to limit pen work. He just got through TEX, SEA, and BAL. all 3 much better matchups. Harrell on the other hand has been good overall, but his stuff is not that good, he struggles with command and especially vs righties. Awful K/BB rate. Angels type of lineup, he really struggles and puts his weak pen in a bind, which ALSO has been struggling and dont have much talent there at all. Sure the Stros can win, Sweepin a much talent-laden lineup with a not so great pitcher/lineup matchup here is tough to pull from the Astros. I did back them with Norris and Lyles 1st 2 games, but after breakin down the metrics, u need Angels to just die at the plate and Vargas not pitch well at all to have great odds here, and i rather not is my take here. Winds blowing out to center with thunderstorms also in play here. GL
This is where I don't believe that SABR can provide everything. I do use SABRmetrics as part of my analysis and admittedly this is the worst matchup by far in the series for the DisAstros. The favorable things are that Houston can't hit righties, but they weren't seeing one starting today so we are good there. Houston strikes out a lot and doesn't walk (I have a 27% K% and a 6.8% Walk rate in my numbers). Looking at the starters splits I didn't mind Harrell here. He is remarkably better against right handers and the big bats here (Pujols, Trout, etc) are righties. The big bat that hits lefty is Josh Hamilton and it proves true as he is currently 2-3 with a long ball. I don't see the metrics pointing away from Houston, but they really aren't pointing at them either.
The more important thing in this game for me is the situational type angles to it. Houston has a chance to sweep, they don't get that opportunity very often, so I thought we would see an increased effort from them. Conversely, the wheels have completely fallen off this Angels wagon. They are all struggling (except for Josh off the top of my head has played decent lately) in every facet of the game. They are demoralized and need a huge spark somewhere to turn things around. Meanwhile, the public still loves the names so I get ridiculously good prices when I bet against them. I'm not saying I will bet against them every day, but you may see a trend of me fading the Angels until I see a turnaround.
Thank you for providing specific stats and giving me an idea of what you look at. Although SABR can all give the same numbers to the same people, everyone uses them differently.
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Quote Originally Posted by MikeTizzy:
KcF and Portman, id like to give u guys a full scout of ur Stros and Angels game. KcF states supposedly "they have all the metrics" is the only thing i ever say, is far from truth, i have written much here. Sure Astros overall hit lefties far better than righties, but u hav Varags here whos one of the hottest right now in mlb. He gets on stretches and dominates lesser lineups, which hou does have. He's throwin well, gettin ahead in counts, pitch efficient as well to limit pen work. He just got through TEX, SEA, and BAL. all 3 much better matchups. Harrell on the other hand has been good overall, but his stuff is not that good, he struggles with command and especially vs righties. Awful K/BB rate. Angels type of lineup, he really struggles and puts his weak pen in a bind, which ALSO has been struggling and dont have much talent there at all. Sure the Stros can win, Sweepin a much talent-laden lineup with a not so great pitcher/lineup matchup here is tough to pull from the Astros. I did back them with Norris and Lyles 1st 2 games, but after breakin down the metrics, u need Angels to just die at the plate and Vargas not pitch well at all to have great odds here, and i rather not is my take here. Winds blowing out to center with thunderstorms also in play here. GL
This is where I don't believe that SABR can provide everything. I do use SABRmetrics as part of my analysis and admittedly this is the worst matchup by far in the series for the DisAstros. The favorable things are that Houston can't hit righties, but they weren't seeing one starting today so we are good there. Houston strikes out a lot and doesn't walk (I have a 27% K% and a 6.8% Walk rate in my numbers). Looking at the starters splits I didn't mind Harrell here. He is remarkably better against right handers and the big bats here (Pujols, Trout, etc) are righties. The big bat that hits lefty is Josh Hamilton and it proves true as he is currently 2-3 with a long ball. I don't see the metrics pointing away from Houston, but they really aren't pointing at them either.
The more important thing in this game for me is the situational type angles to it. Houston has a chance to sweep, they don't get that opportunity very often, so I thought we would see an increased effort from them. Conversely, the wheels have completely fallen off this Angels wagon. They are all struggling (except for Josh off the top of my head has played decent lately) in every facet of the game. They are demoralized and need a huge spark somewhere to turn things around. Meanwhile, the public still loves the names so I get ridiculously good prices when I bet against them. I'm not saying I will bet against them every day, but you may see a trend of me fading the Angels until I see a turnaround.
Thank you for providing specific stats and giving me an idea of what you look at. Although SABR can all give the same numbers to the same people, everyone uses them differently.
so u got it twisted, but i said what u have for u is that their big righty important bats been scuffling. So thats good of course, but no, hes not remarkably better vs righties. Josh been struggling too actually, i def agree with ur angels of pricing, better than norris price for sure. You seem quite sharp, now lets turn that into serious results, That's what really matters, im sure u agree!
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actually KcF Harrel is awful vs righties:
vs Left
.279
vs Right
.364
so u got it twisted, but i said what u have for u is that their big righty important bats been scuffling. So thats good of course, but no, hes not remarkably better vs righties. Josh been struggling too actually, i def agree with ur angels of pricing, better than norris price for sure. You seem quite sharp, now lets turn that into serious results, That's what really matters, im sure u agree!
Tizzy- Maybe my numbers are off. I have them converted into rankings in my spreadsheet based upon a database of pitchers in the majors and I have him #32 vs rights and #101 vs lefts. Maybe my columns got mixed up or something. I will have to look into it.
I think that with the many people that have left this thread, we can really start working more as a team now more effectively.
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Tizzy- Maybe my numbers are off. I have them converted into rankings in my spreadsheet based upon a database of pitchers in the majors and I have him #32 vs rights and #101 vs lefts. Maybe my columns got mixed up or something. I will have to look into it.
I think that with the many people that have left this thread, we can really start working more as a team now more effectively.
and no a 6bb/1K ratio will get u killed by a hot Angels lineup, but they are not so u playin with fire.. U cant invest too much into situational angles, they are good but this is baseball. There is formulas to winning and losing. You also have a bad pen in Angels so thats good for you for sure, but an awful pen in HOU and u basically need deep pitching to offset those odds, and no Harrell does not provide that here. Im tryin to help you understand a formulated approach, this is baseball, thats what all the winners and scouts do. I hope my writing today, provide some insight, since im "average" remember? im not sure if its worth much of anything.
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and no a 6bb/1K ratio will get u killed by a hot Angels lineup, but they are not so u playin with fire.. U cant invest too much into situational angles, they are good but this is baseball. There is formulas to winning and losing. You also have a bad pen in Angels so thats good for you for sure, but an awful pen in HOU and u basically need deep pitching to offset those odds, and no Harrell does not provide that here. Im tryin to help you understand a formulated approach, this is baseball, thats what all the winners and scouts do. I hope my writing today, provide some insight, since im "average" remember? im not sure if its worth much of anything.
the truth was, im going to say it now, but all u guys reading or have left, can condemn me or hate me. It doesnt matter, im honest, i want to be the best while im still young, make the most money with legit formulas, and i want everyone to be great, so if u hate me for that, so be it. We talkin baseball here, Simon went from +2k to 800 fast, so thats -1.2k and he was carrying us?? you can see his reasons, hardly any baseball formulas there. I believe not one person went south that big that fast, and thats exactly the point, Mavin been emphasizing, since what he started these threads in the 1st place. MusicMatt i respect a lot, hes not an old dog and stubborn. Learning and applying with his knowledge of lines. But i said there's a lack of talent here, and i get shunned for it?! why is everyone so sensitive? how can u look to be great, and yet not acknowledge the crappy ANALYTICS? just look at the results, we are in complete negative now. I rest my case.
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the truth was, im going to say it now, but all u guys reading or have left, can condemn me or hate me. It doesnt matter, im honest, i want to be the best while im still young, make the most money with legit formulas, and i want everyone to be great, so if u hate me for that, so be it. We talkin baseball here, Simon went from +2k to 800 fast, so thats -1.2k and he was carrying us?? you can see his reasons, hardly any baseball formulas there. I believe not one person went south that big that fast, and thats exactly the point, Mavin been emphasizing, since what he started these threads in the 1st place. MusicMatt i respect a lot, hes not an old dog and stubborn. Learning and applying with his knowledge of lines. But i said there's a lack of talent here, and i get shunned for it?! why is everyone so sensitive? how can u look to be great, and yet not acknowledge the crappy ANALYTICS? just look at the results, we are in complete negative now. I rest my case.
KcF and Portman, now u got HUMBER in from the pen, thats already getting shelled. What i tell yall, u playin with fire with the metrics givin in this matchup today. This is great for 'action' yes, but i could care less for ACTION, its about locating great odds to invest in, to win, period. Whoever is with me, stay in this thread and put the damn work in and be scholars and do ur studies, break down metrics and find formulas. Ill help when i can while i post and log all my stuff on covers, i have way too much work as it is in my life, and my extracurricular activities.
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KcF and Portman, now u got HUMBER in from the pen, thats already getting shelled. What i tell yall, u playin with fire with the metrics givin in this matchup today. This is great for 'action' yes, but i could care less for ACTION, its about locating great odds to invest in, to win, period. Whoever is with me, stay in this thread and put the damn work in and be scholars and do ur studies, break down metrics and find formulas. Ill help when i can while i post and log all my stuff on covers, i have way too much work as it is in my life, and my extracurricular activities.
KcF and Portman, now u got HUMBER in from the pen, thats already getting shelled. What i tell yall, u playin with fire with the metrics givin in this matchup today. This is great for 'action' yes, but i could care less for ACTION, its about locating great odds to invest in, to win, period. Whoever is with me, stay in this thread and put the damn work in and be scholars and do ur studies, break down metrics and find formulas. Ill help when i can while i post and log all my stuff on covers, i have way too much work as it is in my life, and my extracurricular activities.
So your solution is to call out two of the only people left in this thread? There is more to gambling than numbers and you cannot win based solely off of numbers. I was giving you a second chance because quite frankly you are an a$$hole. You did well for one day and now you are back at it. Quit acting like you are God's gift to the gambling world. The fact is we are one month into the season. I'm sure we have all had good months and I know I have had bad months. Things start to settle in fairly soon. Until then, the metrics aren't even that valuable. Mavin made this thread to have a place where people with the same goal and similar skill sets could join together and help each other. Some people were driven away because they had bad stats and they live in a world where they think gamblers never lose. The rest were driven away by you.
I will continue to post in this thread, but besides my post with my picks and reasoning I will not say a single word. aka the opposite of the purpose of this forum, but all that is left thanks to you tizzy
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Quote Originally Posted by MikeTizzy:
KcF and Portman, now u got HUMBER in from the pen, thats already getting shelled. What i tell yall, u playin with fire with the metrics givin in this matchup today. This is great for 'action' yes, but i could care less for ACTION, its about locating great odds to invest in, to win, period. Whoever is with me, stay in this thread and put the damn work in and be scholars and do ur studies, break down metrics and find formulas. Ill help when i can while i post and log all my stuff on covers, i have way too much work as it is in my life, and my extracurricular activities.
So your solution is to call out two of the only people left in this thread? There is more to gambling than numbers and you cannot win based solely off of numbers. I was giving you a second chance because quite frankly you are an a$$hole. You did well for one day and now you are back at it. Quit acting like you are God's gift to the gambling world. The fact is we are one month into the season. I'm sure we have all had good months and I know I have had bad months. Things start to settle in fairly soon. Until then, the metrics aren't even that valuable. Mavin made this thread to have a place where people with the same goal and similar skill sets could join together and help each other. Some people were driven away because they had bad stats and they live in a world where they think gamblers never lose. The rest were driven away by you.
I will continue to post in this thread, but besides my post with my picks and reasoning I will not say a single word. aka the opposite of the purpose of this forum, but all that is left thanks to you tizzy
Houston makes 3 errors, lose by 1 after a 3 run Angel 8th. Astros: 13 hits
Angels: 8 hits
Astros hit first 5inn. ML and +1.5 bets.
This game was in no way the landslide you paint.
I put work in everyday with my picks. I just don't slander others or puff my chest about it like you, but doesn't mean i don't research and formulate good bets. This is basically my first 6 weeks betting MLB...ever. 100$ pick in this thread for me is actually a 10$ bet. I don't deal with hundreds or thousands. Doubt most do tbh, but anyway... congrats on your great day! Thanks for completely studying one of my picks for no reason except to "rest your case" and then complain about not having the time to do just that. I continue to post in this thread because even though I'm -165$ right now, I won't be by the end. You on the other hand seem bent on posting to put others beneath you, and then tell them to do what you do or fail miserably. You just come off like such a prick.
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Houston makes 3 errors, lose by 1 after a 3 run Angel 8th. Astros: 13 hits
Angels: 8 hits
Astros hit first 5inn. ML and +1.5 bets.
This game was in no way the landslide you paint.
I put work in everyday with my picks. I just don't slander others or puff my chest about it like you, but doesn't mean i don't research and formulate good bets. This is basically my first 6 weeks betting MLB...ever. 100$ pick in this thread for me is actually a 10$ bet. I don't deal with hundreds or thousands. Doubt most do tbh, but anyway... congrats on your great day! Thanks for completely studying one of my picks for no reason except to "rest your case" and then complain about not having the time to do just that. I continue to post in this thread because even though I'm -165$ right now, I won't be by the end. You on the other hand seem bent on posting to put others beneath you, and then tell them to do what you do or fail miserably. You just come off like such a prick.
That's the problem with the written word, it is left up to the person reading it and what they feel is the intention versus what the writer was trying to say... I see it in corporate emails all the time...
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That's the problem with the written word, it is left up to the person reading it and what they feel is the intention versus what the writer was trying to say... I see it in corporate emails all the time...
Hi guys! I stop posting like a month ago, I was in my honeymoon and it was hard to keep posting.
But I want to start again, and if Mavin is ok with this, I would like to start 0-0.
Heads2134 0-0 $0
SEA Mariners ML -122
Iwakuma pitching really great at home, he has an ERA of 1.61 against the A's lineup with a lot of injuries.
The A's play yesterday at Cleveland so this is flight day for them, the Mariners didn't play yesterday, so the bullpen will be in good conditions, the A's bullpen was used a lot in Cleveland.
Straily has an ERA of 5+.
The only thing that botters me a little bit is the line movement, drops 20pts from the opening line with the public supporting the Mariners.
But i like the Mariners to win this one.
TB Rays -1.5 +120
I like the hot bats in Tampa against Volquez.
Volquez has an ERA of 5+ and Cobb is under 3.
San Diego plays awful on the road, and TB is a good home team.
I like the Rays to win this one by a lot if runs.
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Hi guys! I stop posting like a month ago, I was in my honeymoon and it was hard to keep posting.
But I want to start again, and if Mavin is ok with this, I would like to start 0-0.
Heads2134 0-0 $0
SEA Mariners ML -122
Iwakuma pitching really great at home, he has an ERA of 1.61 against the A's lineup with a lot of injuries.
The A's play yesterday at Cleveland so this is flight day for them, the Mariners didn't play yesterday, so the bullpen will be in good conditions, the A's bullpen was used a lot in Cleveland.
Straily has an ERA of 5+.
The only thing that botters me a little bit is the line movement, drops 20pts from the opening line with the public supporting the Mariners.
But i like the Mariners to win this one.
TB Rays -1.5 +120
I like the hot bats in Tampa against Volquez.
Volquez has an ERA of 5+ and Cobb is under 3.
San Diego plays awful on the road, and TB is a good home team.
Good matchup for the Yanks bats against the righty Wade Davis here. L7 batting has been a bit of a struggle for the Yanks, but I think the positives outweigh the negatives. Also, despite KC being the home team, they had to travel from the east coast whereas the Yanks had about a 45 min flight.
NY Yankees TT Over 3.5 -120
I love this matchup for Yankee hitters. For a lot of the same reasons as above this pick is in play for me.
CHI Cubs 1st 5 Inn. ML +110
This is a play on Samrdzija. One of the most underrated pitchers in the league by the public. He has been throwing out nasty stuff. He strikes out a lot of people, keeps the ball down, and has a top BAA so far. Playing the first 5 innings to avoid depending on one of the worst pens in the majors to shut it down.
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KCsFinest829 39-48-2 -796$
NY Yankees ML +102
Good matchup for the Yanks bats against the righty Wade Davis here. L7 batting has been a bit of a struggle for the Yanks, but I think the positives outweigh the negatives. Also, despite KC being the home team, they had to travel from the east coast whereas the Yanks had about a 45 min flight.
NY Yankees TT Over 3.5 -120
I love this matchup for Yankee hitters. For a lot of the same reasons as above this pick is in play for me.
CHI Cubs 1st 5 Inn. ML +110
This is a play on Samrdzija. One of the most underrated pitchers in the league by the public. He has been throwing out nasty stuff. He strikes out a lot of people, keeps the ball down, and has a top BAA so far. Playing the first 5 innings to avoid depending on one of the worst pens in the majors to shut it down.
GL 
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