Thanks guys. Gotta admit, I got a little lucky with the Baltimore game. But all in all, it's going well. Remember, my money line plays are twice as large as the over-unders so if San Diego holds out and blows the OU, I will still be 3-0 on the ML plays and 1-2 on the lesser over unders. Still a long shot I can nail that under. Who knows.
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Thanks guys. Gotta admit, I got a little lucky with the Baltimore game. But all in all, it's going well. Remember, my money line plays are twice as large as the over-unders so if San Diego holds out and blows the OU, I will still be 3-0 on the ML plays and 1-2 on the lesser over unders. Still a long shot I can nail that under. Who knows.
Hope to finish the day strong. I still have to look over the last three games of the night. But until then ....
* NY Yankees -183
I know I will get heat for this one and I rarely play the Yanks over the Rays but I think the books outsmarted themselves here. Mussina has always been solid against the Rays and Hammel worse than his usual mediocrity against the Yanks. The line should be well over -200.
* NYY/Tampa O 10
I smell a blowout, or at least a slugfest. I'm not feeling the Hammel/Rays bullpen 1-2 punch to do anything but allow a traditional Yankee spanking. It's 49 degrees with a slight breeze coming in from left field but this shouldn't be enough to prevent the over.
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Hope to finish the day strong. I still have to look over the last three games of the night. But until then ....
* NY Yankees -183
I know I will get heat for this one and I rarely play the Yanks over the Rays but I think the books outsmarted themselves here. Mussina has always been solid against the Rays and Hammel worse than his usual mediocrity against the Yanks. The line should be well over -200.
* NYY/Tampa O 10
I smell a blowout, or at least a slugfest. I'm not feeling the Hammel/Rays bullpen 1-2 punch to do anything but allow a traditional Yankee spanking. It's 49 degrees with a slight breeze coming in from left field but this shouldn't be enough to prevent the over.
Pompy -- From the last three games of the night, all I can tell you is that I will probably be taking the Braves. Need to get the lineups to figure out any other plays.
Pederson -- Thanks man. We're up against the wall but anything can happen.
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Pompy -- From the last three games of the night, all I can tell you is that I will probably be taking the Braves. Need to get the lineups to figure out any other plays.
Pederson -- Thanks man. We're up against the wall but anything can happen.
I was just saying laying chalk with a team like the phillies is a
losing prop in the long run. We do not need a track record to prove
that. They do not have a pen and do not have a good starting rotation.
Why are you bringing up the rotation? Do 5 pitchers alternate to start the game for the Phillies? Hamels, one of the top arms in the game, is pitching today and that's it until the pen comes in.
By saying you would never lay -150 on the road, you are saying unequivocally that road favs are never, ever undervalued. This is simply untrue. You see, the books know many bettors will look at the game just like you: Reds are playing well, Phils have a poor pen, etc. and lower the line too low. This is part of the sportsbook's game.
It doesn't happen often but you can find value in all places, given enough games.
Also, I never sit here and day: "Should I take this chalk?" or "How hot is Cincy?" I input a shitload of numbers into a spreadsheet and it churns out a revised moneyline that is proven to be significantly more accurate than the actual lines. Barring very rare cases, I will never say, "No computer, you are wrong." Numbers don't lie and take human elements and thought out of the equation. In my opinion, this is a good thing.
If you dont mind me asking what is this spreadsheet and how does it work?
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Quote Originally Posted by lanastasis:
I was just saying laying chalk with a team like the phillies is a
losing prop in the long run. We do not need a track record to prove
that. They do not have a pen and do not have a good starting rotation.
Why are you bringing up the rotation? Do 5 pitchers alternate to start the game for the Phillies? Hamels, one of the top arms in the game, is pitching today and that's it until the pen comes in.
By saying you would never lay -150 on the road, you are saying unequivocally that road favs are never, ever undervalued. This is simply untrue. You see, the books know many bettors will look at the game just like you: Reds are playing well, Phils have a poor pen, etc. and lower the line too low. This is part of the sportsbook's game.
It doesn't happen often but you can find value in all places, given enough games.
Also, I never sit here and day: "Should I take this chalk?" or "How hot is Cincy?" I input a shitload of numbers into a spreadsheet and it churns out a revised moneyline that is proven to be significantly more accurate than the actual lines. Barring very rare cases, I will never say, "No computer, you are wrong." Numbers don't lie and take human elements and thought out of the equation. In my opinion, this is a good thing.
If you dont mind me asking what is this spreadsheet and how does it work?
If you dont mind me asking what is this spreadsheet and how does it work?
Well, without giving anything critical away, I basically account for every significant factor that affects the outcome of a baseball game. Many of these factors are ones the random bettor never looks at:
* Bullpen. This one is obvious but how many really look at it? Also, it's not just a question of computing the bullpen, but you also have to ask questions like: Has Team A really overused its bullpen the last few days? If so, they will perform worse than the season ERA will indicate.
* Platoon splits. Many teams have dramatic discrepancies between their success in batting against right handed and left handed pitchers. You can't just say: Well, I like this team's offense today. Why do you like them? Look at Tampa, for example. They are significantly better against lefties than righties. If Mike Mussina were left handed, this would be a no play for me tonight instead of a Yankees play.
* Home field advantage (and disadvantage) You can't simply ask: Is Team A better than Team B? without also being biased for home field. A matchup between an average home team and an average road team should give the home team about 16 extra cents of juice. Sometimes the road team is better on the road than the home team is at home. In this case, don't shy away from giving the away team extra juice.
* Pitcher splits. You have to look at a pitcher's history against a certain team. Some pitchers simply struggle/excel against certain clubs. You can find hidden betting gems by simply looking here.
There are many other intricacies, but this covers the basics.
I have a gazzilion formulas that I use to put all this stuff together but I spent too many hundreds of hours putting it together to give any of it away.
If you have any other questions, feel free to ask.
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Quote Originally Posted by Shyne11:
If you dont mind me asking what is this spreadsheet and how does it work?
Well, without giving anything critical away, I basically account for every significant factor that affects the outcome of a baseball game. Many of these factors are ones the random bettor never looks at:
* Bullpen. This one is obvious but how many really look at it? Also, it's not just a question of computing the bullpen, but you also have to ask questions like: Has Team A really overused its bullpen the last few days? If so, they will perform worse than the season ERA will indicate.
* Platoon splits. Many teams have dramatic discrepancies between their success in batting against right handed and left handed pitchers. You can't just say: Well, I like this team's offense today. Why do you like them? Look at Tampa, for example. They are significantly better against lefties than righties. If Mike Mussina were left handed, this would be a no play for me tonight instead of a Yankees play.
* Home field advantage (and disadvantage) You can't simply ask: Is Team A better than Team B? without also being biased for home field. A matchup between an average home team and an average road team should give the home team about 16 extra cents of juice. Sometimes the road team is better on the road than the home team is at home. In this case, don't shy away from giving the away team extra juice.
* Pitcher splits. You have to look at a pitcher's history against a certain team. Some pitchers simply struggle/excel against certain clubs. You can find hidden betting gems by simply looking here.
There are many other intricacies, but this covers the basics.
I have a gazzilion formulas that I use to put all this stuff together but I spent too many hundreds of hours putting it together to give any of it away.
If you have any other questions, feel free to ask.
What do you think of the Dodgers in a 5-inning play?
Just capped the game. The money line is almost perfect. I'm guessing almost anything for a 5 inning line would fall under an unbettable blanket as well. I wouldn't touch it but good luck either way.
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Quote Originally Posted by MonsterGuy:
What do you think of the Dodgers in a 5-inning play?
Just capped the game. The money line is almost perfect. I'm guessing almost anything for a 5 inning line would fall under an unbettable blanket as well. I wouldn't touch it but good luck either way.
I realize this is your picks thread, but a couple of general ? since you seem to spend alot of time analyzing various factors prior to making a pick:
1) Do you factor streaks into your picks at all- as in playing on or into a streak skews your own line at all?
2) What about wild cards like the Giants- I mean they have a pretty decent pitching staff with an absolutely horrid batting lineup- I have them figured as a play tomorrow, but cringe at the idea of taking them even with Lincecum on the mound. How do you even evaluate a team and assign value to them- I'm struggling with this right now.
3) I kind of agree with you about searching for value, but I generally play underdogs or nothing- will be following some of your favs picks- just have a hrd time laying -150 or -160 so that losing means I have to hit the next 2 or a nice dog to make it up- interesting discussions at any rate.
Best of Luck
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I realize this is your picks thread, but a couple of general ? since you seem to spend alot of time analyzing various factors prior to making a pick:
1) Do you factor streaks into your picks at all- as in playing on or into a streak skews your own line at all?
2) What about wild cards like the Giants- I mean they have a pretty decent pitching staff with an absolutely horrid batting lineup- I have them figured as a play tomorrow, but cringe at the idea of taking them even with Lincecum on the mound. How do you even evaluate a team and assign value to them- I'm struggling with this right now.
3) I kind of agree with you about searching for value, but I generally play underdogs or nothing- will be following some of your favs picks- just have a hrd time laying -150 or -160 so that losing means I have to hit the next 2 or a nice dog to make it up- interesting discussions at any rate.
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great day so far, hopefully SD and that under hang on and we cash in
gl
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