Marvellous Monday picks 04/07 (2008 debut; come on in and hop aboard!)

Hey everyone,

I will be posting my first plays of the season today. I take baseball capping very seriously and hope to be of help to all of you at some point, in some way, this season.

It seems like quality cappers are leaving this place all the time. While I certainly don't want to give myself any credit, I anticipate that my successful plays over time will offer some level of respect.

My plan is to double my bankroll by season's end. If I do better, great. If not, Travis Hafner will bash me in the head.

A couple of things about my capping before we get started:

* I put in a lot of work into capping these games and factor just about anything that could play a role in a game. Everything is well researched before I make my play. The plays are based on my expected return of value. If I spot a moneyline or O/U that appears to be off by more than 10%, that's where I bet.

* Because of my approach I just mentioned, betting favorites is a big part of what I do. If I see a team that is -200 but should be -300 in my book, I will bet them without thinking twice. It's simple math, in the long run you win money on this game. I know many of you run from favs like anthrax. Nobody is forcing you to ever play these picks by me, but they will prove profitable throughout the year and are an integral part of my betting. That being said, I also bet a ton of dogs and admit they are much funner.

* I will rarely tab a play at more than 2 units. I will always indicate what the sizes of my wagers are.

* There will probably be times when I catch heat for the number of games I play. Please understand that I play whatever my numbers tell me to play. Sometimes this is just a few games. Other times, there could be around 10. I don't play games just to get action. I play games where I see value. I have to maximize my opportunities.
* One final caveat will be my post times. Official lineups are critical to what I do. I cannot complete my capping until I process these about an hour before game time. The exception to this would be if I put in extra capping work during the day to spot great value that will be unaffected by minor lineup discrepancies. I have a busy life like most of you all and would be lying if I told you doing extra early work would become a habit. But I will do it when I can. Anyway, my post times might go a little late for your liking but never after game start, obviously. I will usually post a play as soon as I identify it.

Anyway, without further delays, onto the first action of the day!

                 NET UNITS: NA                
                               
                      NET WIN/LOSS: 0-0
                       ML NET UNITS: NA              
                      WIN-LOSS ML: 0-0
                       OU NET UNITS:NA
                       WIN LOSS O/U:0-0

             LET'S GET THAT MONEY!           
                     
                                 
    
All money line bets are risking two units. All over/under bets are risking one unit.

    
* Phillies -146

I just don't think this line is giving enough credit to Philly all the way from the lineup to Hamels' considerable edge over Arroyo. Nothing too complicated here.

Good luck to all!




     

Just saw the line climbed a little. Let's put it at -150 officially. Sorry about that.

I'm getting 9 as the over under and I don't see any value in the line (even if it were 8.5). Hope I'm wrong for your sake though.

Thanks, I didn't bet total chickin'ed out

Adding:

* Cubs/Pirates U 9

You should Re-read your first * up there.

Then you should look at the bet you placed.

Do I think it wins? Yes, somehow it wins.

But if you think the Phils should be -150 to any team in the NL at this point, you are out of your fucking mind. Especially on the road.

This play, is not a recipe for long term success.

I do wish you luck, because if you play like this, you are going to need it.

Gamblingsnob, I see why you chose your username.

You do not understand the premise of what I do or the value I locate, if you post something like this.

I can respect criticism if it is warranted but maybe give me a few days to let me do what I do before you hit me with these kind of comments.

I was just saying laying chalk with a team like the phillies is a losing prop in the long run. We do not need a track record to prove that. They do not have a pen and do not have a good starting rotation. They also play piss-poor defense.

Basically, I am saying, we dont need to wait a few days. Lets play some dogs that show ACTUAL value and start winning.



If I lay -150 or anywhere near it, the game better be over by the 3rd inning. Or else its not worth it.

GL and I hope you do well. Will check to see how your first week has went.

I was just saying laying chalk with a team like the phillies is a losing prop in the long run. We do not need a track record to prove that. They do not have a pen and do not have a good starting rotation.

Why are you bringing up the rotation? Do 5 pitchers alternate to start the game for the Phillies? Hamels, one of the top arms in the game, is pitching today and that's it until the pen comes in.

By saying you would never lay -150 on the road, you are saying unequivocally that road favs are never, ever undervalued. This is simply untrue. You see, the books know many bettors will look at the game just like you: Reds are playing well, Phils have a poor pen, etc. and lower the line too low. This is part of the sportsbook's game.

It doesn't happen often but you can find value in all places, given enough games.

Also, I never sit here and day: "Should I take this chalk?" or "How hot is Cincy?" I input a shitload of numbers into a spreadsheet and it churns out a revised moneyline that is proven to be significantly more accurate than the actual lines. Barring very rare cases, I will never say, "No computer, you are wrong." Numbers don't lie and take human elements and thought out of the equation. In my opinion, this is a good thing.

ChrisCune -- Thanks and good luck to you!

Luckylogan -- Good luck. The game was dead even for me so I couldn't make a call.

Thanks Gus. Looking forward to a great year!

Adding:

* Baltimore -108

This hurts me a little because my brain tells me the M's are due to break out and the Orioles are playing way over their heads. However, Cabrera's and Silva's splits against these respective teams are too much to ignore. In the last 3 years, Silva has an XERA of 7.43 against Baltimore while Cabrera actually has a team he can dominate in Seattle (2.73 XERA.) That seals it for me.

I'm gonna wait for the lineups to decide if I do anything here but I think if there's a play, it's on San Diego.

Cain and Maddux are very, very even.

Cain 2007 XERA: 3.3
Maddux 2007 XERA: 3.93

Cain last 3 yrs against SD: 1.67 XERA
Maddux last 3 yrs against SF: 2.01

Bullpen edge goes to San Diego and San Fran's pen is a little tired after the Milwaukee slugfest.

San Diego actually gets extra juice even as a dog because they play better on the road than SF does at home.

Also, SDs bats are better. Well, so was my little league team compared to the Giants.

It looks like the Padres might be the play. Will let you know later for sure.

Adding:

Sea/Bal U 9.5

Wind is blowing in and it's cold.

Hey lanastasis


































































































GL dude   

Thanks GAM.

I was looking for you the other day to get you a quote. But we'll stay out of politics here.

 

 

Good looking out, lanastasis   

I only go to the politics forum when I am realllllly bored. I'd rather talk betting any time though. BOL this season. I didn't know you actually bet on anything...that goes a long way with me. I am retiring from being a dickhead to you now.

Haha, it's all good man. No love lost. I have only recently gotten involved in the politics forum.

The main reason I am on Covers is for the gambling community. Baseball is the only sport I cap and I like to think I am fairly good at it.

I look forward to seeing you around in here.

Do you post at all?