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Marvellous Monday picks 04/07 (2008 debut; come on in and hop aboard!)

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by atlheatholder:

 

Good looking out, lanastasis   




 
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Posted: #27
I don't know shit about baseball. Trying to learn this season. You seem like you know what you're doing, AND you are a bit of a contrarian taking heavy faves when warranted, so I'm going to be reading your thread a lot to see what's what.


 
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Posted: #28
I will also take the under in SEA/Balt.  Getting fisted by the 5 inning and game under with CHI/Pitt. 


 
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Posted: #29
GL lanastasis

your picks look good
 
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Posted: #30
except for CHC/PIT UNDER, I just saw it
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by decentman:

except for CHC/PIT UNDER, I just saw it


Yeah, I know. Oh well. Hope to break even with Sea/Bal. And that's why I bet twice as much on money lines.
 
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Posted: #32
Any idea why San Diego and San Fran are listed so even?  SF sucks hard and SD seems to be ready for a decent year?  Seems like it would be wise to pound SD here. 

Any opinions would be appreciated.

 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by GAM:

I don't know shit about baseball. Trying to learn this season. You seem like you know what you're doing, AND you are a bit of a contrarian taking heavy faves when warranted, so I'm going to be reading your thread a lot to see what's what.




Everybody has their own strategy, but I hope you will find out mine works as well as any. If you ever have any questions about games or betting baseball, feel free to oblige.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by UnityNY:

Any idea why San Diego and San Fran are listed so even?  SF sucks hard and SD seems to be ready for a decent year?  Seems like it would be wise to pound SD here. 

Any opinions would be appreciated.



There doesn't have to be a reason. Books may be tailoring to the "Cain is a bad ass/Maddux is old/Giants coming home due for a win" school of logic. But it sounds like you're on the same page with the Padres.
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by lanastasis:

I was just saying laying chalk with a team like the phillies is a losing prop in the long run. We do not need a track record to prove that. They do not have a pen and do not have a good starting rotation.

Why are you bringing up the rotation? Do 5 pitchers alternate to start the game for the Phillies? Hamels, one of the top arms in the game, is pitching today and that's it until the pen comes in.

By saying you would never lay -150 on the road, you are saying unequivocally that road favs are never, ever undervalued. This is simply untrue. You see, the books know many bettors will look at the game just like you: Reds are playing well, Phils have a poor pen, etc. and lower the line too low. This is part of the sportsbook's game.

It doesn't happen often but you can find value in all places, given enough games.

Also, I never sit here and day: "Should I take this chalk?" or "How hot is Cincy?" I input a shitload of numbers into a spreadsheet and it churns out a revised moneyline that is proven to be significantly more accurate than the actual lines. Barring very rare cases, I will never say, "No computer, you are wrong." Numbers don't lie and take human elements and thought out of the equation. In my opinion, this is a good thing.
Wow this guy(gamblingsnob) sounds like a real asshole. How can he say there is no future in betting on the Phillies? As far as Im concerned Im willing to bet on any team if the situation dictates it. I took Philly today. I am looking forward to seeing how you fare. That pit/chc game could be headed over though after a 6 run chc inning.
 
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Posted: #36
Lantasis anything on the white sox?  i like the under
 
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Posted: #37
GL bro... dont worry i didn't think you were bashin the other day.. i just read your post about the Tigers... yea they look pretty shitty right now.. hopefully they can win some games on the road here so the pressure is off.... i like the Balt pick and warry on the Under... and of course right as i write this theres already 2 jacks... this could be a scary game...
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by infmus02:

Lantasis anything on the white sox?  i like the under


Both lines are well set line, in my opinion. I'm showing an intsy bitsy amount of value for the Twins, but it's a no play for me. Also showing a tiny advantage for the over, but also a non play. GL.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by BigGame90:

GL bro... dont worry i didn't think you were bashin the other day.. i just read your post about the Tigers... yea they look pretty shitty right now.. hopefully they can win some games on the road here so the pressure is off.... i like the Balt pick and warry on the Under... and of course right as i write this theres already 2 jacks... this could be a scary game...


It's all good. That's why we're all here. To throw useless opinions at each other.

Cabrera better buckle down. He just walked one now.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by DetroitRob:

Wow this guy(gamblingsnob) sounds like a real asshole. How can he say there is no future in betting on the Phillies? As far as Im concerned Im willing to bet on any team if the situation dictates it. I took Philly today. I am looking forward to seeing how you fare. That pit/chc game could be headed over though after a 6 run chc inning.


Because unless they make a move for bullpen help, they are going to provide many more opportunities to fade than to play on.

Its not that hard to reason.



This is a game of #s, you play the #s. Not against them.
 
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Posted: #41
I like the Rays +180 tonight vs. the Yanks. The Rays lefty lineup bashes right-handed pitching. Also, Mussina is very very overrated. The Rays are throwing Hammel which is their worse starter, so i like the Rays and the over. Book it
 
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Posted: #42
Welcome to Covers, Cruzgator. Haven't capped that game but might have to go defy you and go with the Yanks.
 
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Posted: #43
By saying you would never lay -150 on the road, you are saying unequivocally that road favs are never, ever undervalued. This is simply untrue. You see, the books know many bettors will look at the game just like you: Reds are playing well, Phils have a poor pen, etc. and lower the line too low. This is part of the sportsbook's game.


From this post, I would have to think that you did not read what I wrote. Ever.

One of the very first things I said was that I think Philly wins here.

Bettors who look at games like me?

I look for value. Thats all. I look for a side with decent return and value and thats what I play.

Favorite with value today, Colorado Rockies.

Favorite with no value today, Phillies. The LVSC was -127/117 and the line finished at around -150. No way is that value. Especially on the road and especially with a team with no pen, like Philly.

Like I said to your boy, I play with the #s not against them. In order to lay -150 the Phils are going to have to win this game 2/3 times and you just cant count on that to happen if they played it 10 times.

Again, if you are going to go off on how I lost on the Reds or that this is sour grapes, you are wrong.

I am just your polar opposite in the gambling world. Just offering my  opinion that there is value in the dogs and much more money to be made there.


 
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Posted: #44
If you take the Yanks at -200 with Mussina on the mound...whoa, just take the rays or no play. No value in the yanks
 
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Posted: #45
What are you guys opinions on these 2 games.....?
 
Atl@ Col(Col+1)
 
Cle @ LAA(LAA+1)
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by gamblingsnob:

By saying you would never lay -150 on the road, you are saying unequivocally that road favs are never, ever undervalued. This is simply untrue. You see, the books know many bettors will look at the game just like you: Reds are playing well, Phils have a poor pen, etc. and lower the line too low. This is part of the sportsbook's game.


From this post, I would have to think that you did not read what I wrote. Ever.

One of the very first things I said was that I think Philly wins here.

Bettors who look at games like me?

I look for value. Thats all. I look for a side with decent return and value and thats what I play.

Favorite with value today, Colorado Rockies.

Favorite with no value today, Phillies. The LVSC was -127/117 and the line finished at around -150. No way is that value. Especially on the road and especially with a team with no pen, like Philly.

Like I said to your boy, I play with the #s not against them. In order to lay -150 the Phils are going to have to win this game 2/3 times and you just cant count on that to happen if they played it 10 times.

Again, if you are going to go off on how I lost on the Reds or that this is sour grapes, you are wrong.

I am just your polar opposite in the gambling world. Just offering my  opinion that there is value in the dogs and much more money to be made there.




So you would sometimes envision laying -150 on a road fav? Are you saying you specifically weren't feeling the Phils today at that line? If so, I can respect that. Undoubtedly, all of us would reach differing conclusions about what the true line would be for a given game.

Most of everything you say I agree with. Value is my MO. Every decision I make is based on value. I don't care how much a line moves or if a fav has lost 20-30 cents by the ballgame time.

For example, for the Phils, I had their real line at -197 compared to the -146 price I got on Matchbook. For me, that's a ROI of .18%. That is, if this game were to be played 100 times and I bet the Phillies every time, my calculations say I make 18% of whatever I bet. This is part of my common sense philosophy, live or die.
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by cruzgator:

If you take the Yanks at -200 with Mussina on the mound...whoa, just take the rays or no play. No value in the yanks


I have Yanks at -181. Sounds like someone needs to meet Mr. Matchbook.
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by DetroitRob:

What are you guys opinions on these 2 games.....?
 
Atl@ Col(Col+1)
 
Cle @ LAA(LAA+1)


Won't cap these till later but I will probably play Atlanta. Cook is atrocious against the Braves historically. GL.
 
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Posted: #49
Adding:

San Diego +104

San Diego/San Fran U 8
 
 
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Good luck
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