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keepit's strict one side & one total a day @ 60%

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Posted: #101
Great job so far keepitstrict. Love the discipline. Gonna tail these. BOL
 
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Posted: #102
Quote Originally Posted by keepitstrict:

7:10pm: new york mets OVER 7 -106

» the over is 5-0 in the phillies' last 5 overall
» the over is 6-0 in the mets' last 6 overall
» pelfrey, who posts a 5.37 ERA on the season, sees that number actually increase to 5.83 in night games and in 2 starts this season, pelfrey has allowed 10 earned runs in just 6 1/3 innings against the phillies
» hamels is 2-9 with with a 4.35 ERA in 14 starts against the mets in his career, while going 0-5 with a 4.82 ERA against them since his last win
» the over is 6-2 in the phillies' last 8 against a team with a losing record
» the over is 4-0 in the mets' last 4 games following a loss
» ryan howard is batting .412 with three homers against pelfrey while rollins is hitting .318 his last four games
» pelfrey is 6-5 with a 5.25 ERA against in 15 career starts against the phillies
» the over is 4-0-1 in the phillies' last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game
» the over is 6-0 in the mets' last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game
» since utley's return, philadelphia is batting .286 with 22 extra-base hits and seven homers while scoring 34 runs in those five games
» pagan had an impact in his first game back and jose reyes recorded his fourth consecutive multi-hit contest last night while, off of a 4-hit game last night of his own, justin turner is batting .329 with 18 RBIs in 25 games this season
» the over is 9-2-1 in the mets' last 12 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600
» the over is 4-0 in barry's last 4 saturday games behind home plate
» the over is 8-1-1 in barry's last 10 games behind home plate

Big Pelf is different pitcher at Citi Field.
 
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Posted: #103
5/28/2011 recap:

(L) cincinnati reds ml +140

(PUSH) new york mets OVER 7 -106

lots of chances blown by the reds after that comeback and a depleted pen costs us that game while it got us a push with the mets total. would rather be on the +140 side of a 12-inning game than a -150 game but just couldn't get the hit that sealed the deal. rangers over hit as they tee'd off on o'sullivan. back tomorrow boys!

MLB 2011: 11-8 57.89%
UNITS ACCUMULATED: +4.54u
 
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Posted: #104
I'm not reading 10 pages of posts to find this out, but I have to give you some shit here bro....  I see these "one play a day threads" all over every ficking forum and I think the same thing every time...


What does the time frame of one day have to do with whether or not a play is a good play or not?  I mean, don't you think that some days there are 3 great plays and then there may not be a good play for three days?

Just answer me this...  what.the.F*CK. do a sunrise and sunset have to do with whether or not a play is worth risking money on?


I'm sorry to take this frustration out on you and like I said, I haven't read this entire thread so maybe you've already answered this.  My theory is that some gamblers are so piss-poor at discipline that the best way they know how to keep from letting their emotions get the best of them is to limit themselves to one play per day.  But, this is an extremely poor way to compensate for that lack of discipline.
 
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Posted: #105
Ignore the above douche KS!
 
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Posted: #106

Quote Originally Posted by xbaggypants:

Ignore the above douche KS!

 

 

Yeah, the same guy that made at least 10 bets today, but probably more like 15. 

 
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Posted: #107
hahaha yeah x, not sure how to even respond to that. sorry that we've struck a nerve in you that you persuaded you to paint a picture for us, wendy. relax van gogh. and hammer, why would you care to degrade someone who we're friends with that was just telling us to ignore an ignorant hater? he didn't mention anything about our method or how he goes about things. you have the IQ and comprehension skills of a paperclip.

anyways, made this post to say that even though the entire public will be on the yankees tomorrow, we will be as well. just wanted to post it at -150 as i'm sure it will rise given cc's success against the mariners along with avoiding a sweep. write-ups out soon, hope everyone had a profitable night!
 
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Posted: #108
going to be on the pirates/cubs over but no number out for that just yet so we'll get that write-up posted tomorrow before game time. have to split this up into two posts here.

5/29/2011:

4:10pm: new york yankees rl +106

» the yankees are 38-13 in their last 51 games after losing the first 2 games of a series
» the mariners are 6-18 in their last 24 during game 3 of a series
» the road team is 5-0 in davis' last 5 games behind home plate against seattle
» vargas' ERA is actually an entire run higher at home, 4.29, than on the road, 3.29
» sabathia's ERA is better on the road as well, 2.86, as opposed to home, 3.43
» the yankees are 25-5 in sabathia's last 30 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game
» the mariners are 7-23 in their last 30 home games against a left-handed starter
» the yankees are 5-0 in sabathia's last 5 starts versus the mariners
» seattle's last sweep of the yankees came nearly 15 years ago when rodriguez actually helped them do so
» sabathia posts a 0.75 ERA in five consecutive wins over the mariners and is 7-1 with a 1.37 ERA in his last eight starts in seattle
» vargas is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA in three starts against the yankees while cano is 7 of 10 off of him
» the yankees are 17-4 in sabathia's last 21 starts against the american league west
 
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Posted: #109
» the mariners are 2-7 in vargas' last 9 home starts
» the yankees are 26-7 in sabathia's last 33 starts aganst a team with a winning record
» the mariners are 2-6 in vargas' last 8 starts against a team with a winning record
» the mariners are 1-6 in vargas' last 7 starts during game 3 of a series

looking for these trends to work together today:

» the yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 sunday games
» the mariners are 2-6 in their last 8 sunday games

MLB 2011: 11-8 57.89%
UNITS ACCUMULATED: +4.54u
THIRD CONTEST PICK: rockies OVER 8.5 -112

fully-aware of how public this play will be and tempted to lay the juice but don't think that'll be needed here. good luck closing out the week gents!
 
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Posted: #110
You seem to have a good read on trends 

Any thought on the Dodgers - Marlins game

I like Florida and the Under 6.5 
two good pitchers, dodgers struggle to score runs , florida plays very well on the road vs at home.. 

I think I will tail you on the Yanks , I;m going to the dodger game so I must bet on it to make this snoozer bearable. 


best - GR
 
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Posted: #111
gold rush, my lean would be over. it's not as strong as some other plays on the board but we've been banking on the marlins' game 3 overs throughout the season:

over is 18-7-1 in the marlins' last 26 during game 3 of a series

and it seems like nolasco takes form to that as well:

the over is 4-0 in nolasco's last 4 starts during game 3 of a series

noting those, and given florida's track record against lefties (13-4 in their last 17 road games) coupled with nolasco's ERA being higher on the road than at home and higher during the day than at night (this is a 1pm eastern game aka in florida) should make this total almost too close to call but at 6.5, definitely lean over.

hope this helped ya a bit and good luck tomorrow and most of all, enjoy the game!
 
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Posted: #112
here's the write-up for the cubs/pirates over:

2:20pm: chicago cubs OVER 8 -103

» the over is 5-0 in karstens' last 5 road starts
» the over is 5-0 in karstens' last 5 starts against the national league central
» the over is 8-2 in karstens' last 10 starts overall
» the over is 5-0 in the cubs' last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game
» the over is 6-1 in the cubs' last 7 against the national league central
» the over is 12-3 in the cubs' last 15 on grass
» the over is 8-2 in the cubs' last 10 home games
» the over is 19-7 in the cubs' last 26 games following a loss
» the over is 6-0 in dempster's last 6 home starts against a team with a losing record
» the over is 10-1 in dempster's last 11 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game
» the over is 14-2-1 in dempster's last 17 home starts
 
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Posted: #113
» the over is 23-7 in dempster's last 30 starts overall
» the over is 18-7-3 in dempster's last 28 starts with 4 days of rest
» karstens' day ERA, 5.21 is significantly higher than his night ERA at 2.39 while posting a 5.74 ERA on the road as opposed to a 2.43 ERA at home
» dempster is 0-4 with a 7.23 ERA in his last four starts against the pirates, not too far ahead of his ERA on the season at 6.29

also have some sunday trends going for us:

» the over is 6-1 in the pirates' last 7 sunday games
» the over is 4-1 in karstens' last 5 sunday starts
» the over is 16-7 in the cubs' last 23 sunday games

good luck to everyone!
 
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Posted: #114
 
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Posted: #115

[Quote: Originally Posted by keepitstrict] hahaha yeah x, not sure how to even respond to that. sorry that we've struck a nerve in you that you persuaded you to paint a picture for us, wendy. relax van gogh. and hammer, why would you care to degrade someone who we're friends with that was just telling us to ignore an ignorant hater? he didn't mention anything about our method or how he goes about things. you have the IQ and comprehension skills of a paperclip.

 

 

hey calm down before you start degrading my intelligence and make sure you understand what the f*** I was saying.  I was agreeing with what baggypants said and meant basically "Yeah this is the same guy saying something to strict about two plays a day and his jack ass made at least 15 yesterday.  Simmer down, damn. 

 

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101065619


 

 
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Posted: #116
relax guys the dick #104 is getting the shit stirred just like he wanted. Ignore his ignorant ass his post says all you need to know about him. Loser.


gl kis
 
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Posted: #117
Quote Originally Posted by laythehammer:

Quote Originally Posted by keepitstrict:

hahaha yeah x, not sure how to even respond to that. sorry that we've struck a nerve in you that you persuaded you to paint a picture for us, wendy. relax van gogh. and hammer, why would you care to degrade someone who we're friends with that was just telling us to ignore an ignorant hater? he didn't mention anything about our method or how he goes about things. you have the IQ and comprehension skills of a paperclip.

 

 

hey calm down before you start degrading my intelligence and make sure you understand what the f*** I was saying.  I was agreeing with what baggypants said and meant basically "Yeah this is the same guy saying something to strict about two plays a day and his jack ass made at least 15 yesterday.  Simmer down, damn. 

 

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101065619


 

Actually, it was 11 plays.  And if you count the under of 10, I went 5-5-1 and made $9.  IF you count the under 9.5 instead, I went 5-6 and lost about $80.  I'd rather have 11 chances to make money in a day than 2. 

All I was asking is why limit yourself to 2 plays per day.  Surely you'll agree that some days have more than one favorable spot to get your money down.  I never did get an answer to that question.  But, it's all good... keep doing what makes you happy.  I was just asking a question, albeit in a colorful, dickhead sort of way...
 
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Posted: #118
i extend my apologies then, hammer. honest mistake.
 
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Posted: #119
5/29/2011 recap:

(L) chicago cubs OVER 8 -103

(W) new york yankees rl +106

had a good start with the cubs over but the game hit a screeching halt after the 3rd and turned ugly. hit the yankees fairly easily as that was as public as they come but impossible to lay off of. lost with the rockies over as colorado wanted to leave small villages on base instead of winning. anyways, hope everyone had a profitable week and we're back at it tomorrow!

MLB 2011: 12-9 57.14%
UNITS ACCUMULATED: +4.60u
 
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Posted: #120
5/30/2011:

4:15pm: st. louis cardinals ml -140

» the giants are 1-7 in their last 8 against a team with a winning record
» the cardinals are 8-1 in mcclellan's last 9 starts
» bumgarner gets one of the majors' worst run-support averages at 2.37 and posts a daytime ERA (5.74) that is over 2 runs higher than his ERA at night (3.05) and this game has a 1:15 pst start time
» mcclellan's ERA improves in the daytime (2.86 vs a 3.24 one at night) as well as at home (3.00 vs a 3.23 one on the road)
» the giants are 2-8 in bumgarner's last 10 starts
» the cardinals are 5-0 in their last 5 home games
» the giants are last in the national league in runs and have been shutout in 2 of their last 4 games
» the cardinals are the highest-scoring team in the majors along with hitting for the highest overall average and have recieved the most walks
» the giants are 0-5 in bumgarner's last 5 starts during game 1 of a series
» the cardinals are 10-3 in their last 13 overall
» mcclellan is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four home starts and hasn't issued a walk in 14 innings
» jay is hitting .397 over his last 17 games
» the giants are 0-5 in bumgarner's last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game
» the cardinals are 4-0 in mcclellan's last 4 home starts

and it seems like st. louis likes to get their weeks started properly:

» the cardinals are 23-7 in their last 30 monday games
 
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Posted: #121
7:07pm: toronto blue jays OVER 8.5 -105

» the over is 15-5-1 in the indians' last 21 games following a loss
» the over is 15-6-1 in the blue jays' last 22 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game
» the jays, who scored 26 runs over their final 3 games against the white sox, are 3rd in the american league in runs scored, 3rd in walks, 4th in batting average and tied for 2nd in extra-base hits
» carmona is 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA in his last three outings while accumulating a 4.73 ERA overall this season and allowing a .314 OBP on the road
» the over is 5-0 in carmona's last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game
» the over is 5-2 in the blue jays' last 7 overall
» reyes, who's dealing with pressure due to his looming record, posts an ERA at home of 5.81 as opposed to 4.28 on the road
» the indians are 4th in the american league in runs scored and in average
» the over is 9-3 in carmona's last 12 road starts
» the over is 6-1 in the blue jays' last 7 monday games
» the over is 26-10-2 in carmona's last 38 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game
» the over is 4-1 in carmona's last 5 starts against the blue jays

MLB 2011: 12-9 57.14%
UNITS ACCUMULATED: +4.60u
THIRD CONTEST PICK: orioles ml +108

feel a lot safer laying the juice there with the cardinals as this game displays entirely opposite offenses along with st. louis really playing well at home as of late. good luck to everyone!
 
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Posted: #122

Strict, just got back from the book, Over jays is my top play tomorrow! jojo should yield some runs, indians bats will get healthy.

Also on the Cards on a parlay, bumgarner has bad mojo on monday according to happykanes charts, it also looks like it could be an over. GL to us!!!!

 
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Posted: #123
good to hear you're on the over with us pliss and glad you at least lean st. louis. good luck to you and have a good holiday as well bud!
 
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Posted: #124
Thanks, happy holiday to you too!
 
 
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Posted: #125
I'm on Cardinals -1 today.. I think this is a very tasty play at even money.
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