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keepit's strict one side & one total a day @ 60%

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Posted: #26
 
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Posted: #27
not going to roll with the total we initially leaned although we were actually getting to play it at an entire run lower than it opened and still at +money. not taking the bait this time, looks too sketchy:

7:10pm: florida marlins OVER 7.5 -105

» the over is 13-3 in dempster's last 16 starts against a team with a winning record
» the over is 15-5 in nolasco's last 20 home starts
» the cubs rank second in the national league with a .276 team batting average while carlos pena is hitting .368 with five home runs over his past 12 games
» gaby sanchez is hitting .400 in 14 games since may 2nd while mike stanton has hit three homers in the past four games

the confusing movement that was becoming a daily occurrence ended up scaring us away today. since these plays are posted separately, going to include a few more trends and statistics:

» the over is 5-0 in the cubs' last 5 games following a loss
» the over is 7-0-1 in the marlins' last 8 versus national league central
» the over is 16-5 in dempster's last 21 starts with 4 days of rest
» the over is 6-1 in the cubs' last 7 overall
» the over is 24-8-1 in dempster's last 33 starts overall

couple of neat trends here:

» the over is 40-18-1 in the marlins' last 59 wednesday games
» the over is 12-4 in nolasco's last 16 wednesday starts

good luck to everyone and here's to florida's wednesday totals!
 
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Posted: #28
Nolasco and Dempster both have pretty solid numbers versus their respective competition today

  Strict   
 
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Posted: #29
they do gbob but dempster's scoreless streak was done in the first inning and hey, it's a wednesday brotha..the numbers don't lie!
 
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Posted: #30
Nicely done Strict  
 
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Posted: #31
excellent
 
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Posted: #32
looks like your the man ! Il  follow you for awhile keep up the good work .
 
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Posted: #33
good layoff on cle/csw o

...nicely done

good job man, appriciate your work 
 
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Posted: #34
Well played, Sir 
 
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Posted: #35
appreciate the support guys!

5/18/2011 recap:

(L) los angeles angels ml -134

(W) florida marlins OVER 7.5 -105

knew something was up with that indians total so laid off of that and although the marlins total was disgusting for awhile, it paid off in the end. took the first loss of this run with the angels ml and fell for the trap there but felt it was too good to lay off of and it wasn't. we live and we learn, see you tomorrow for the bounce back boys!

MLB 2011: 4-1 100%
UNITS ACCUMULATED: +5.8u
 
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Posted: #36
4-1 is obviously not 100%, it's 80%. i'll get that updated with the plays for tomorrow, sorry about that!
 
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Posted: #38
post is too long so splitting it into two

5/19/2011:

12:35pm: cincinnati reds OVER 8 -105

» the over is 7-1 in cueto's last 8 starts against the pirates
» the over is 7-1 in barry's last 8 games behind home plate
» reds rank 1st in the majors in runs scored per game while both of these clubs rank in the lower-half of the league in team-ERA
» mcdonald has yet to last seven innings and has failed to complete five in four of eight starts
» the over is 12-5 in cueto's last 17 starts with 4 days of rest
» the over is 13-3-1 in cueto's last 17 starts during game 2 of a series
» prior to wednesday's shutout, the reds were hitting .315 in their previous eight games
» jay bruce is a .356 hitter in 22 career home matchups with pittsburgh while ronny cedeno is batting .346 in his last 17 games overall
» the over is 6-1 in the reds' last 7 home games
 
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Posted: #39
7:05pm: new york yankees ml -146

» the yankees are 47-14 in sabathia's last 61 starts on grass
» the orioles are 28-61 in their last 89 games against. a left-handed starter
» new york has won all 5 meetings against baltimore this season, including 13 of their last 16 at camden yards
» bergesen posts an 0-3 record with a 6.65 ERA in five games against the yankees
» robinson cano is hitting .514 in the last 16 games at baltimore while alex rodriguez is hitting .515 in his last 9 games there
» vladimir guererro has been streaking lately but is just 3 for 20 off of sabathia

couple of neat trends here:

» the yankees are 12-3 in their last 15 thursday games
» the orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 thursday games
» the yankees are 7-1 in sabathia's last 8 thursday starts

so, just like last night with "marlins over wednesday," we have "yankees ml thursday" to toast to! this same pitching matchup happened less than a month ago with the yankees winning 15-3 and although it may not be that decisive, cc should get himself, and the public, back on track in this game.

MLB 2011: 4-1 80%
UNITS ACCUMULATED: +5.8u
THIRD CONTEST PICK: indians OVER 8 +104

looking to bounce back from our first loss, best of luck to everyone!
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by keepitstrict:



knew something was up with that indians total so laid off of that 
 

In 5 career starts Peavy had never beaten Cleveland.  I wanted to take the Tribe but laid off for this very reason.

Here's a little prop nugget: Blackburn has never (in 7 career starts) K'd more than 2 hitters.  I will definitely be checking the prop line set on this one.  Blackbeard is coming off an 8-K start vs. Toronto.  Oakland is 2nd-to last in MLB in strikeouts (249) Brian Runge does like to ring 'em up. I believe the stiff double-digit breeze to Center will help this cause.

 
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Posted: #41

Good work on wed!

GL today!

 
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Posted: #42
haha gbobb, i was monitoring that as the game progressed and seemed like the a's just got a lot of bat on the ball off of him. to be honest, never really knew he was that inept at striking people out. anyways, the reds got stifled by mcdonald and had a push on the total, if we were to make another total play it would be on rockies over or rangers over. only one a day though! going to include a few more statistics on this super-public yankees play since bergesen's trends weren't out earlier:

» the orioles are 7-19 in bergesen's last 26 starts against a team with a winning record
» the orioles are 5-18 in bergesen's last 23 starts versus the american league east
» the orioles are 5-16 in bergesen's last 21 starts with 4 days of rest
» the orioles are 0-4 in bergesen's last 4 starts against the yankees
» the orioles are 0-7 in bergesen's last 7 starts on grass
» the yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 games with vanover behind home plate

but, of course, the most notable statistics are the yankees' dominant thursday ones. best of luck gents!
 
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Posted: #43
Not only are Berg's trend's ugly.....CC commonly gets runs support in game's vs. Balty.  Last start out he got none (zero) Yank TT Over here....

I never got a line on Blackburn O/U K's so I had to go with Ross (-120) to K more than Blackbeard.

You saw how that ended up  
 
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Posted: #44
yeah, pretty funny that blackburrn only had 1 more strikeout than ross and ross didn't even record an out.

swisher cashed your team total fairly early, now we have to wait out the entire game while you're happily on your way.
 
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Posted: #45
I'm contemplating taking myself on Over to the 1H in Dallas.....  

Good Luck on the -1.5 !
 
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Posted: #46
we're on the over 198 for the full game but 1st half does seem like a safe bet, good luck if you play it!
 
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Posted: #47
you have basketball plays to !
 
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Posted: #48
Strict


 
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Posted: #49
yeah we do tony. we cap every sport, including soccer!

5/19/2011 recap:

(PUSH) cincinnati reds OVER 8 -105

(W) new york yankees ml -146

got a little lucky this afternoon with a push in the reds game but really felt that should have went over. the yankees game played out as we thought it would as sabathia gets incredible run support against the orioles and his track record against baltimore is incredible. the play was the most public on the board but also arguably the best side choice on the board (rockies/white sox). our 3rd contest play, which was also our alternative total play, hit with the indians over. can't promise that we'll have any interleague plays right off the bat but can't say we won't, either. hope everyone had a profitable night!

MLB 2011: 5-1 83.33%
UNITS ACCUMULATED: +7.8u
 
 
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Posted: #50
5/20/2011:

7:05pm: cincinnati reds OVER 8.5 -105

» the over is 4-0 in the indians' last 4 interleague home games
» the reds rank 1st in the majors in runs scored per game
» the over is 4-0 in the indians' last 4 home games against a left-handed starter
» the over is 7-0-1 in the reds' last 8 versus a team with a winning record
» the over is 6-0 in the indians' last 6 home games versus a team with a winning record
» the over is 5-0-2 in wood's last 7 starts against a team with a winning record.
» the over is 8-1-1 in the indians' last 10 overall

and it seems both of these teams like to light it up on fridays:

» the over is 8-1 in the indians' last 9 friday games
» the over is 5-2 in the reds' last 7 friday games
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