Posted:
#26
Haha this guy is stuck betting about $5-600 dollars to just profit $100 on game 3 with the Orioles.
KC will not beat Baltimore 4 in a row. So here is what we can do.
Posted:
#28
Quote Originally Posted by flash_diamond:
Pretty simple. I use non-bayesian machine learning tactics to produce simulations of games from a corpus of previous pbp data and mix in a lot of tradition actuarial player matchups with basic t-tests and correlations.
I pay a group of people minimum wage to collect stats no one else has, bat angle in the strike zone and of course fx data from GD2 server. delta height of ball vs bat barrel (height difference is much more important that horizontal position of ball since the bat covers less of it) and most importantly swing timing and where the hands are during the swings. Often I pick up on bad batting habits long before the public and bet large on overhyped lineups.
When you have this data you are miles ahead of anyone else. sports betting is 95% data munging, 5% analysis imo.
all of this stuff is pretty familiar though if you are an ex quant and its great to meet you!
post your picks or stfu
Posted:
#31
Given the fact that statistical analysis has always been more useful for discerning long-term trends, I assume most of your picks are basically whatever your model predicts them to be, and there is little to no deviation from that?
Still, for a forum like covers, people usually look for a winning pick on any given day and are unlikely to tail someone for weeks/months in a row, which unfortunately, makes such model-based predictions of little to no use for the everyday poster. Unless ofcourse the statistical models themselves are publicly disclosed, which I have no doubt will never ever be the case.
Still, for a forum like covers, people usually look for a winning pick on any given day and are unlikely to tail someone for weeks/months in a row, which unfortunately, makes such model-based predictions of little to no use for the everyday poster. Unless ofcourse the statistical models themselves are publicly disclosed, which I have no doubt will never ever be the case.
Posted:
#37
Quote Originally Posted by flash_diamond:
I pay a group of people minimum wage to collect stats no one else has
Then you either don't win much at betting, or you're a piece of sht.
Neither option is impressive.
Also, there's no such thing as a stat that literally NO ONE ELSE has. Unless it's a made up stat.
Lastly, you said 'public' in your strat brag.. which is usually the sign of someone who lives in magic land.
As you were, schooling the class.
Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by flash_diamond:
nah I am a mathematician by degree. It irks me to hear amatuer betters talk about martingales when baseball progressive betting is actually a sub-martingale system which can be profitably modelled to great success considering the guys who run the vegas books don't do any math and use an excel spreadsheet and don best feed to set odds lol. (mostly just taking pinnacles odds)
Seems to me like you're just typing word for word off of a website to try and sound smart, or like you know something. Anyone with a degree should know the difference between better and bettor... Maybe you should just let your picks do the talking instead of trying to give your .02 cents into every other persons thread
Posted:
#41
Quote Originally Posted by flash_diamond:
Trust your hunch, none of these guys have PhD's in math or stats so they have no idea if this 4 step martingale is an effective bet or not,
Trust your hunch, none of these guys have PhD's in math or stats so they have no idea if this 4 step martingale is an effective bet or not,
on the surface it seems highly improbable, but even moreso if you throw $500 on betfair and hedge out in game once bal gets a lead.
also degen betters like key element always focus on the losses and trolling others for thinking in a way that isn't in a narrow minded scope they approve of. the primary concern here is that non stats guys like him invoke a theory meant for blackjack where past results are mutually exclusive to the future betting contract (which can NOT be hedged in real time), where in baseball that is not true. I know 2 people who use martingales/hedge systems in baseball to great effect.
You don't need a PhD in Math to know that's not effective. You never heard of lead changes throughout the game? I am sure you always bet the "right" amount at the exact "right" time, right?
Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by Johnny-Utah:
Then you either don't win much at betting, or you're a piece of sht.
Neither option is impressive.
Also, there's no such thing as a stat that literally NO ONE ELSE has. Unless it's a made up stat.
Lastly, you said 'public' in your strat brag.. which is usually the sign of someone who lives in magic land.
As you were, schooling the class.
cool story bro
Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by bunny651:
You don't need a PhD in Math to know that's not effective. You never heard of lead changes throughout the game? I am sure you always bet the "right" amount at the exact "right" time, right?
I bet the perceived optimal amount at the optimal time as far as a numerical algorithm can tell, I believe wholeheartedly that a cold, emotionless machine is far more effective then subjective sports betting and have at least until know done very well thanks to that philosophy. But who knows, maybe numerics will just blow up and not work anymore on any given stretch. I'm not betting on that.
Posted:
#45
Quote Originally Posted by flash_diamond:
I bet the perceived optimal amount at the optimal time as far as a numerical algorithm can tell, I believe wholeheartedly that a cold, emotionless machine is far more effective then subjective sports betting and have at least until know done very well thanks to that philosophy. But who knows, maybe numerics will just blow up and not work anymore on any given stretch. I'm not betting on that.
ugh darn spellcheck, at least until now
Posted:
#46
Quote Originally Posted by NewbieQuestion:
Seems to me like you're just typing word for word off of a website to try and sound smart, or like you know something. Anyone with a degree should know the difference between better and bettor... Maybe you should just let your picks do the talking instead of trying to give your .02 cents into every other persons thread
are you truly conflating a few spelling mistake with betting ability? and by the way I don't think there is such thing as .02 cents, or at least I haven't seen those hundredth of cent coins yet bro.
It seems like you are so friggin stupid you can't even understand what a decimal is. That MUST MAKE YOU A BET BETT"O"R.
My wife is laughing so hard at you right now its awesome.
Posted:
#47
Here's the problem with all your research. It's based on the past.
These crazy Royals are doing something that's never happened before almost ever night!
No team has ever won an elimination game down 4 runs in the 8th inning? Check that off. And that would have popped up as a good time to bet against them?
Posted:
#48
Quote Originally Posted by magiccarpetride:
Bet $200 on the O's first game, if I lose, I will bet the O's to make up for my $200 and a $100 profit, if they lose the 2nd game I will bet to make up all that I lost and a $100 profit, and if they lose the 3rd game and on and on.....
Bet $200 on the O's first game, if I lose, I will bet the O's to make up for my $200 and a $100 profit, if they lose the 2nd game I will bet to make up all that I lost and a $100 profit, and if they lose the 3rd game and on and on.....
No way will KC win 4 in a row!!
Be careful with the axe Eugene.
Posted:
#49
Quote Originally Posted by flash_diamond:
Pretty simple. I use non-bayesian machine learning tactics to produce simulations of games from a corpus of previous pbp data and mix in a lot of tradition actuarial player matchups with basic t-tests and correlations.
I pay a group of people minimum wage to collect stats no one else has, bat angle in the strike zone and of course fx data from GD2 server. delta height of ball vs bat barrel (height difference is much more important that horizontal position of ball since the bat covers less of it) and most importantly swing timing and where the hands are during the swings. Often I pick up on bad batting habits long before the public and bet large on overhyped lineups.
When you have this data you are miles ahead of anyone else. sports betting is 95% data munging, 5% analysis imo.
all of this stuff is pretty familiar though if you are an ex quant and its great to meet you!
interesting... i use a half bayesian / half indonesian machine at .5657 power during the regular season...in the playoffs i up the wattage of the flux capticitor to .7895 in order to compensate for pi 3.14...the then use the farmers almanac to pre-predic the percipitation and what type of clouds will be encircling the stadium...harder to cap cumulus over stratus but easier for nimbus' with a low barometer reading and under .0857 humidity
...actually... my son's tball team last yr was the Royals so I've been playing them every game since the wilcard game... during the regular season i asked him who he likes based off of names and team colors...he didn't know what a Philly was so i made some good coin on that fade
Posted:
#50
oh- and i forgot, i call the trainers to check the color and brand ock straps... rawlings black increase batting average while kirkland white lower it... rawlings black though does increase a pitchers ERA---i have to change the rotor girdle in the equinox database to compensate for that scenario
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