If It Loses, I May Be Outta Here 5/12

17-25-2, -542.03, - RoR -14.9 %

JMHO – 5/12

First, the rant. If ever there existed a reason to believe in “The Fix” it was the Rangers game yesterday. With the better offense, at home, in Arlington; shutout by Soroka and the D-bax bullpen? Fuggetaboutit. You gotta be kidding me. The only way that happens is if the Rangers are ordered not to score if it will ties or surpass what the D-bax put up. Hence, a SHUTOUT. They did nor score because they were not permitted to. A huge amount of money was wagered on the D-bax in the early part of the day, before lineups were even published. That ain’t no accident fellow chumps, somebody knew something. It pizzed me enough I totally forgot to go with the Giants, a great underdog winner I alerted you to earlier. Now then, thanks for letting me get that off my chest. It is not good that an old man in bad health should be so angry.

 F5 - Athletics -155 – Pallante/Springs

I am taking the worst odds I can get because I want a winner, period. I am fed up with “value” because it does not exist. I will go with overwhelming advantage and pay the price. I will also delay the write up and see if anyone else can provide it. I will prepare it and post about noon P.D.T. Have fun with that!

PAYOR. Play at your own risk.

The road to destruction is paved with VALUE

If you took the better offensive team stats

Avg and Runs where the separation is 10 spots or more on each

Your better stats team would be hitting almost 40% for the year

lol

I had them and the Yanks on the same ticket with the Rays.  
My butthole still hurts…

BOL today Key.  

Amigo - it's nice to see you. I don't frequent the mlb forum much recently, but I was looking for your posts. 

It would be great if you stick around even if you lose your play. 

I'm being completely straight forward.. I probably have one of the worst track records on covers posting plays. Literally everytime I post something the bet is cursed and finds a way to lose. Really kind of messes with your head after awhile. But overall I definitely consider myself way above average in terms of my handicapping ability. Bankroll management and things like this are a separate discussion. Wish you luck today on your bets, and hope to see more from you win or lose.. Doesn't matter to me.. I'll make my own decision on whether or not to tail you on the play. 

Springs much better on the road...

@JP13 @Professor1258 @bigred84

Key! You're KEY

I'm on TB today, another trap, hoping not, and that the line is low due to TOR's showing last year in the World Series

If something is fishy, it's not the players,  that secret is impossible to keep. Probably the balls. Maybe they invented dead balls that Just don't carry.  Sound waves aimed at batters?

Something just ain't right

I agree with @Professor1258. Either way, I hope you keep at it Key. To me, there's something to be learned from those that are posting plays and opinions. The record isn't the be all and end all. You've had a tough start. I think everyone here looks forward to your opinion and wants to see you get out of the hole. 

@barneybeans @mjm1012 @BenZolina

@KeyElement

Situations are often more significant than players and obvious stats. The Rangers were in a situation where the under cashed in 23 of the last 24. No fix yesterday, the only people that “knew something” were sharps who knew this situation existed and cashed big again. 

GL 

That Rangers offense has been bad all year.  No surprise to me.

Keep moving forward Key things will turn soon BOL today! 

@richamp

Rely on old stats as long as you wish. The last 10 vs righty the Rangers have been a far superior offense to the D-bax, one below production averages, the other above. Use what you chose to use.

So the "fix and rigged" nonsense finally spilled over the t NFL forum into here Sensation

Here ya go. Pallante holds a slight edge in my pitcher ratings, 63.6/60 over Springs, which may or may not be significant the way pitchers go from Cy Young to Howdy Doody in this day and age. The real deal here is that the A’s offense is far and away better  than the Cardinals. Over their seven games vs lefty the Cards are 3-4, average of 35.3 on offense vs the starters, as opposed to the MLB average of 37.8. They are also a very low projected 1.9 o.e.r.a.* vs lefty. The A’s counter that with a 42.2 rating vs righty against an MLB average of 37.4. For a topper, the A’s also have a 6.00 o.e.r.a.* vs righty. Those ratings edges of 5.6 power and 4.1 o.e.r.a.* are very large indeed. They seldom exceed that. So, unless Pallante pulls a Soroka, or unknown forces back the Cards, we should be just fine.  

o.e.r.a. = Offensive Earned Run Average. The opposing starters era vs the last ten r/l they faced

(pays) A number of years ago some dimwit on this site could not get the concept of flat wagering through his skull, and kept accusing me of “not deducting the juice” when a favorite of mine lost. So, I point out the profit I will take if I win, a loss is still -100. That is flat wagering; like it or hate it my records are accurate. "Add the juice" has no statistical backing or mathematical sense. Bookies love it and encourage it, because win probability does not increase no matter how much more you pay.

@the1toturn2

 Are you unaware the NFL and NBA have already been caught fixing their games? What would make MLB exempt? 

@KeyElement

 I will continue to bet the Rangers games under and laugh all the way to the bank until they can somehow break out in a meaningful way.