HEAVY moneyline FAVS: When VEGAS sets them as heavy favs does this equate to a high probability of winning and a positive payoff??

 Are betting HEAVY favs a ticket to winning profit as some imply??

2026 HEAVY favs results: (most recent listed first)

16 - 11   with staggering -2764 moneyline losses! 
11 - 16   if choosing a "safer bet" on just -1.5 RL usually laying LARGE negative juice! 

-308 NYY LOSE!!! 4 - 11  (SP Max Fried, Home vs Angels)
-207 LAD 2 - 1  ............but RL loser!
-232 Pitt 16 - 5 (April 13)
-226 San 7 - 2
-219 Milw LOSE!! 6 - 8
-240 LAD 8 - 7 .............but RL loser!
-207 Milw LOSE!! 3 - 7
-200 NYY LOSE!! 0 - 1
-200 NYY LOSE!! 2 - 3
-260 NYY 5 - 3
------------------ Easter
-310 NYY LOSE!!! 6 - 7  (SP Max Fried, Home vs Marlins)
-314 LAD 10 - 5           (SP Glasnow, road @Nationals)
-200 Toro LOSE!! 4 - 5
-280 LAD 13 - 6
-300 LAD LOSE!!! 1 - 4  (SP Yamamoto, Home vs Cleveland)
-275 Toro  LOSE!! 1 - 2
-280 PHL 6 - 5  ...........but RL loser!
-230 ATL 5 - 1

March:
-280 LAD 4 - 1
-260 Toro 5 - 1
-290 Toro LOSE!! 5 - 14
-255 Cubs LOSE!! 3 - 6
-250 LAD 3 - 2  ...........but RL loser!
-200 Milw 6 - 1
-250 Cubs10 - 2
-240 LAD 5 - 4 ............but RL loser!
-280 LAD 8 - 2

Friday night the DODGERS are very heavy favs once again... 

This sport blows

Just do not lay the grease if you are a dollar player, just lay a dollar  You will very lose more than a buck that way 

Why do you say Vegas? Vegas doesn’t set the lines. These lines are initially started offshore in other places outside of the United States

If your gonna lay heave faves use them in a parlay.  I rarely bet heavy faves but I do have the dodgers tonight I parlayed it with alternative total of over 6.5 Phil's/Braves that hit.  I think tonight the odds on Dodgers are warranted 

100% this.  Never lay straight plays on heavy faves unless you're playing with house money and don't mind risking a chunk.  The risk vs reward just isn't there unless you're putting them with another play - possibly teasing points on another game to get closer to even money

That or wait and see if they fall behind to start and then get them at a better price to come back and/or win

UPDATE:

YTD HEAVY favs:
17 - 13  with staggering -3264 moneyline lossers! 
12 - 18  if betting all on -1.5 RL

-207 LAD LOSE!! 6 - 9    >>>>>   LAD = 5 - 7 on Fav RL [ -1.5 -150 avg ]
-293 LAD LOSE!! 3 - 4
-328 LAD 7 - 1

NYY as a HEAVY FAV:

-308 NYY LOSE!! 4 - 11 ...ML or RL loss!
-200 NYY LOSE!! 0 - 1 ....ML or RL loss!
-200 NYY LOSE!! 2 - 3 ....ML or RL loss!
-260 NYY 5 - 3
-310 NYY LOSE!! 6 - 7 ....ML or RL loss!

-173 NYY LOSE!! 4 - 5 ....ML or RL loss!
-187 NYY 11 - 10 ...su win but RL loser!
-183 NYY LOSE!! 1 - 7 ....ML or RL loss!
-194 NYY 5 - 4 ......su win but RL loser!
-180 NYY 4 - 2

 Betting -1.5 RL  =  2 - 8   

@luckyhands

 Interesting. Didn't that Jim Feist guy use to provide all the books with the lines? Thanks for the post, cause I've wondering how it's changed over the years.

You cannot win betting only big favorites or big dogs all season. The reason is that for these plays you are not betting into a dime line. Some of these games you are betting into a 40 cent line. The juice spread is to wide and will eat up a bankroll very fast. That is not to say a person cannot win if they are selective in the plays. We all go on runs that can make or lose some money. It can be done with big favorites or big dogs or a combination of both. Although it will not work betting it the entire season every game because as stated the juice is your enemy. 

no, Dodgers lost 2 to Rockies

Amazing but true.   ML dawgs is the way 

 Hmmmm..... "not so fast my friend"

Sportsbooks adjust to trends as well!

Visitor favs: -115 to -139
thru April 12 = 20 - 21  ............since: 10 - 5 

Visitor favs: -140 to -169
thru April 12 =  9 - 12  ..............since: 5 - 3 

Visitor favs: -170 to -199
thru April 12 =  2 - 7   ...............since:  none

HOME FAVS: -115 to -139
thru April 12 = 30 - 19  .............since: 11 - 11 

HOME FAVS: -140 to -169
thru April 12 = 25 - 22  ........since: 12 - 12 

HOME FAVS: -170 to -199
thru April 12 = 22 - 14  ...........since: 9 - 5  

The favs of -200 and higher are still losing more than winning but I expect this trend to slowly reverse itself.

 May 05 UPDATE:

2026 HEAVY favs -200 and up (YTD results)

25 - 19   ...with those 19 losers totaling a staggering -4728  
17 - 27    if opting for -1.5 RL (all with negative juice!)  

Most recent since post #10 update:

-220 Cubs 5 - 4  .........but RL loser! 
-230 NYY 12 - 1
-300 NYY 11 - 3
-219 ATL 9 - 1
-232 Pitts LOSE! 5 - 10
-267 LAD LOSE!! 2 - 3
-280 LAD LOSE!! 1 - 2
-293 LAD 5 - 4    .........but RL loser! 
-271 NYM LOSE!! 1 - 3
-219 ATL 6 - 2
-207 NYM LOSE!! 3 - 4
-233 DET 5 - 4   ..........but RL loser! 
-207 LAD LOSE!! 0 - 3
-200 LAD 12 - 3