Game of Streaks: Stats and Picks June - Oct

Clawed back a parlay that only put me down 2 U rather than a disastrous 4 Units yesterday....it was one of those days

Today:

Colorado with trouble with lefties.... and Freeland pitching decently in June so I like the UNDER 11 X 1U ... Overs not firing this year in Colorado despite heat 

Staying on JAYS OVER 8.5 x 1 U 

-3 Overs in a row easily and the Jays focus is such that they can get to any pitcher if they choose to and they have a good record vs Schmidt who I suspect will be dialed in but still the Jays should slash their way to 4-5 runs or more

-Yankees bullpen is ranked 15th

-Bassitt having issues in the heat I see and not himself in June so I am of the belief the Yankees will jump on his soft stuff and let him try to beat them with the fastball which means the Yanks will sit on a fastball occasionally and middle of plate is dangerous vs this Yankees lineup

ZONA/SF Over 8.5 x HALFU 

- ZONA on a long mostly Overs and these pitchers have ballooning eras in June

In game exotic play - Houston -3.5 x HALF U +120

UPDATE ON STREAKS FOR SAT/SUN GAMES:

 *** UNDER STREAKS are becoming rare.... TWINS on a 5 gamer going into today to extend to 6?

LEFT HANDED pitching has been fairly dominant in the last while (17 - 12  losers streaks continued)

...... opponents loss streaks lengthening too!

Lose vs Lefty starters  (losing over > 56% of the time)

Colorado   continues a loss streak vs lefties (5 games and counting/ 2 - 25 vs lefty starters)

Boston     continues a loss streak vs lefties (5 games and counting)

Twins       continues a loss streak vs lefties (4 games and counting) 

Texas       continues a loss streak vs lefties (4 games and counting)

Cleveland  continues a loss streak vs lefties (4 games and counting)

Giants      starts loss streak vs lefties (2 losses and counting)

Oakland    starts loss streak vs lefties (2 games and counting)

Tampa     starts loss streak vs lefties (2 losses and counting)

LA Angels  starts loss streak vs lefties (2 losses and counting)

Arizona    starts loss streak vs lefties (2 losses and counting)

UNDER STREAK (wins between 56 %)

TWINS       5 games*** extended  2x 

Pittsburgh   4 games*** extended 

***NEW*** 

OVER STREAKS 

Miami      7 games*** extended  4x

Yankees    5 games*** extended  2x

Arizona     4 games*** extended   

San Fran   4 games*** extended 

WIN STREAKS (winning between 56 %) 

Toronto      6 games*** extended  3x

Ch Cubs    4 games*** extended 

***NEW***  

NY Mets       3 games 

LOSING STREAKS ( now winning over 56%)

Cleveland   8 games*** extended  5x

Yankees      5 games*** extended

St. Louis      4 games*** extended 

***NEW***

Arizona       3 games 

Took a break to enjoy some great weather and good times........hope you can use this for later games and tomorrow 

FADES:

Cleveland on losing streak > taking Detroit +74 x 1U 

Under 9 runs x HALF U

Colorado high with 2 losing and high era pitchers > UNDER 11.5 +95 x HALF U

Giants with their best pitcher but playing poorly lately and on a losing streak vs Lefties ....MEGA CONTRARIAN FADE because I love LOGAN WEBB when his team needs him .... Oakland ML +145 x HALF U

Happy July 4 weekend for my American friends 

STREAK ANALYSIS:

Best Current Categories:

A. LEFTHANDERS defeating a team that has lost 2 or more games to lefties in a row 

Overall  =   105 - 81 > to continue the streak

Warm season (Late  May - early July = 9 weeks) = 56.9%  > 56.1 > 56.5% (going up again)

B. Keeping Losing Streaks going after 2 losses 

Overall  = 356 - 279 > to continue the streak

Warm season has the numbers going down (9 week period) = 57.7% > 56.9 > 56.1% (going down but bettable!)

 ========================================

BE SELECTIVE CATEGORIES!! (falling to 55% level or lower)

C. Keeping Under Streaks going after two losses 

Overall = 372 - 301 

Rate change over 9 weeks > 56.2% > 56.1 > 55.3 (noticeable falloff)

*** will now only record 4 UNDER streaks or more to consider***(I expect numbers to change after mid August)

D. Keeping Over Streaks going after two losses 

Overall = 268 - 229

Rate Change (improving a lot)  > 50.9% > 53.5 > 53.9% 

*** will now only record 4 UNDER streaks or more to consider***(I expect numbers to change after mid August) 

E. Keeping Win Streaks going ( has fallen off the most)

- will only record Win streaks of 4 or more now  > Overall rate change = 57.1% > 54.7% << be cautious

@Last2thirst 

Thank you for all the data, statistics, info, and ALL the time you spent on putting it all together. 

A big thanks for caring and sharing. We appreciate it very much. 

UPDATE ON STREAKS FOR SAT/SUN GAMES:

 LEFT HANDED pitching has been fairly dominant in the last while (17 - 12  losers streaks continued)

...... opponents loss streaks lengthening too!

Lose vs Lefty starters  (losing over > 56% of the time)

Colorado   continues a loss streak vs lefties (5 games and counting/ 2 - 25 vs lefty starters)

Boston     continues a loss streak vs lefties (5 games and counting)

Twins       continues a loss streak vs lefties (4 games and counting) 

Texas       continues a loss streak vs lefties (4 games and counting)

Cleveland  continues a loss streak vs lefties (4 games and counting)

Giants      starts loss streak vs lefties (2 losses and counting)

Oakland    starts loss streak vs lefties (2 games and counting)

Tampa     starts loss streak vs lefties (2 losses and counting)

LA Angels  starts loss streak vs lefties (2 losses and counting)

Arizona    starts loss streak vs lefties (2 losses and counting)

San Diego starts loss streak vs lefties (2 losses and counting)

UNDER STREAK (wins between 56 %)

Pittsburgh   5 games*** extended 

OVER STREAKS 

Nationals    8 games*** extended  4x

Yankees    6 games*** extended  3x 

San Fran   4 games

WIN STREAKS (winning between 56 %) 

Toronto      7 games*** extended  3x

NY Mets     4 games 

LOSING STREAKS ( now winning over 56%)

Cleveland   9 games*** extended  5x

Yankees      6 games*** extended  2x

Ya, no problem. I appreciate the acknowledgement 

Up next.....MY POWER RANKINGS - teams best set up statistically and makeup/rankings in the main categories to make them a Contender. I got my research done, and I will post results tomorrow after I do a point system and final scoring for each team.

Here are the 7 x-factors that make a Playoff Success Winner Now (from years of watching):

 MY POWER RANKINGS: - My World Series Keys/Qualities Teams Need

(15 POINT RATING)

1. Clutch Hitting  +3 pt weighting  (High RISP rank)

2. Great Bullpen  +3   (Bullpen team ratings)

3. Tough #1 Starter/Love Big Games  +3  (This year + playoff past)

4. No Defensive Holes  +2   (Defensive rating list)

5. Win From Behind  +2  (found a rating)

6. Can Hold a Lead or Overpower vs other Good Teams   +1  (use RPI Index)

7. Manufacturing Runs (Great Base running/bunting etc) +1
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MY POWER RANKING TOP 10 CONTENDERS: (not in order)

Tampa

Yankees

Toronto

Houston

Detroit

Dodgers

Phillies

Padres 

Cubs 

NY Mets

Minor Contenders: 3 - 4 of these teams will end up in Top 10 *- 3 there now

NY Mets

Padres

Milwaukee

Seattle

Tampa

SF

St.Louis

Cincy

Texas 

Boston

Arizona

Rankings of TOP 10 Power Teams and data (ESPN skews data in my opinion!!) next.....

Weighting of Power Teams (Research Data): Max 15 pts 

CATEGORY #1 - Timely/Clutch Hitting (RISP factor: Weighting 3 /15 pts) 

Note: HR + RBIs are 2 main factors 

Dodgers 3.0     (391)

Cubs      2.8    (368)

Tampa   2.6     (334)

Tigers    2.6     (330)

Phillies   2.5     (322)

Bl.Jays   2.4     (316)

Milw.     2.4     (316)

NYY      2.3     (308)

           2.0    (*280-295)  Mets, SF, Houston, Seattle

Padres  1.6     (240- 250)     

Category #2 - Bullpen rankings (Holding leads/allowing team to come back)

Weighting: 3 / 15 pts 

1. SF            2.9   (2.97 era)

2. Houston   2.7    (3.25 era)

3. Cubs        2.6    (3.30 era)

4. Padres     2.6    (3.33 era)

5. Toronto    2.3    (3.66 era)

6. Detroit     2.2    (3.75 era)

7. NY Mets   2.2    (3.75 era)

8. Tampa     2.1    (3.88 era)

9. Yankees   1.9    (4.05 era)

10. Milw       1.8    (4.12 era)

                  1.6   Phillies, Dodgers 

Category #3 - Tough #1/2 Starters/Can Handle Big Games

Weighting:  3 / 15 pts

3.0 - Phillies

Wheeler Z.    8 - 3  (0.91 WHIP) > 4- 3 record (2.18 era) playoffs

Note: Phillies also have Ranger Suarez 3 - 1 (1.43 era) playoffs

2.8 Houston

Framber V.  10 - 4  (1.15 WHIP) > 7 - 6 record (4.34 era) playoffs 

Note: Houston also have  Hunter Brown with < 1.00 era over 16 innings in playoffs

2.6 Detroit

Skubal   T.   10 - 2  (0.83 WHIP) > 1 - 1 record (2.34 era) playoffs

2.5 SF 

Webb L.     8 - 6  (1.16 WHIP) > 1 - 0 record (under 1.00 era) playoffs 

Note: Also have Robbie Ray - tough lefthander!      

2.3 NY Mets

Holmes C.   8 - 4  (1.24 WHIP) > 3 - 1 record (1.35 era) playoffs

Note: Have David Peterson as well

2.2 Dodgers

Kershaw C. 4 - 0 (1.25 WHIP) > 13 - 13 record (4.00+ era) playoffs 

2.1 Cubs 

Matt Boyd   8 - 3  (1.08 WHIP) > 0 - 0 record (0.75 era over 12 innings) playoffs

Note: Have Shota Imanga as well

2.1 Padres 

Pivetta N.      9 - 2  (1.04 WHIP) > 1 - 0 record  (2.63 era) playoffs

Note: Also have Mike King with good playoff record 

1.9 Toronto 

Bassitt C.      8 - 4  (1.36 WHIP) > 1 - 1 record  (4.10 era) playoffs

Note: Have Scherzer and Berrios but should go after Adrian Houser of CWS

1.9 Yankees

Max Fried    10 - 2  (0.91 WHIP)  > 2 - 5 record (5.10 era) playoffs

1.8 Tampa 

Tampa Bay - weakest 

Other Top 14-15 Contenders = 1.7 rating

Category #4 - Team Fielding Ability overall 

Weighting:  2 / 15 pts 

STANDARD TEAM = Texas  938/1000  

Contenders Comparative:

1. Phillies     1.9      921  (34 errors)

2. Cubs        1.7      910  (39 errors)

3. Hou         1.65    907   (40 errors)

4. LAD        1.6      903    (41 errors)

5. Det         1.55    903   (42 errors)

6. Tor          1.55    902  (42 errors)

7. Mets        1.5     901   (43 errors)

8. TB           1.5     901   (43 errors)

9. SD           1.45   900   (43 errors)

10. NYY        1.35   898   (44 errors)

Milw             1.3     896   (45)

SF                1.0     882   (51)   

Category #5 - Comeback Wins! 

 Weighting:  2 / 15 pts

1. Dodgers     2.0    34x

2. Toronto      1.75   25x

3. Astros        1.65   24x

4. CUBS         1.6    23x

5. SF             1.6     23x

6. Padres       1.4     21x

7. Phillies       1.4     21x

8. NYM          1.3     20x

8. Tampa       1.2     19x

9. Detroit       1.1    18x

10. Milw         0.95  16x

Yankees         0.95   16x

Cubs              0.8      ?

Category #6 - Intangibles: Relative Power vs Opponents (RPI) + Manufacturing Runs (Baserunning/Sacrifice Hitting)

Weighting:  2 / 15

1. Tor       1.9 

2. Milw.    1.9 

3. SD       1.6

4. SF        1.5

5. Cubs     1.5

6. TB         1.4

7. Philly     1.4

8. Hou      1.2

9. Det       1.1

10. NYY/LAD    1.0

NYM = 0.8

MY POWER RATINGS - heading to All Star Break after next weekend

MAIN WORLD SERIES CONTENDERS - if were to start play now

1. CUBS        12.3 /15

2. ASTROS    12.0/15

3. PHILLY      11.8/15  *** better pitching than Toronto

4. TOR          11.8/15

----------------------------------

5. SF            11.5/15

6. LAD          11.4/15

7. TIGERS     11.2/15

STRONG CONTENDERS

8. PADRES    10.8/15

9. TAMPA      10.6/15

10. NYM        10.1/15

11. MILW       9.9/15

12. NYY         9.4/15 

IF.....Playoffs were now:

AL

1. TIGERS

2. HOUSTON

3. TORONTO vs Seattle

4. vs 5.  NYY vs TB 

Can see TIGERS beating NYY but there is room for an upset

Can see HOUSTON/TORONTO Coinflip but lean Houston (winner of this series likely in World Series)

NL

1. LAD 

2. CUBS

3. PHILLIES vs SD, ST.L or SF

4. vs 5.   NYM vs MILW

Can see LAD beating NYM or MILW

Coin flip Phillies /Cubs (lean Phillies)

Coin flip LAD /Phillies or Cubs in WORLD SERIES

Sunday Plays:

#1 - Cubs  -1.5 +100 x 1.5U / HALF U Under 7.5 (not a parlay)

-Cards are night and day hitting road vs home....they got shutout in one series over 3 games recently 

-Boyd is a legit ace who is improving as the year goes on in era which is rare to find in MLB in the heat 

-Cards hit .116 vs Boyd over 40 ABs

-Fedde is a pinata in the heat and vs Cubs 

#2 Skenes x HALF U +100 ...yes Kirby was a hotshot but will have to prove it vs a much improved Pirate hitting team in June and July

Strong Lean > A's only because Lopez is comfortable at home/ SF has issues hitting away and vs lefties with two losses in a row vs them

Monday Plays:  SHOOT....forgot to send this around 3 pm ....but you can see what I played...doesn't help you though

Toronto ML parlay +60 with Texas  ML +70 and Jays parlay with Philliers +74

Toronto Under 8.5 +90 x 1U

-Toronto's Berrios with a great June and locked and loaded vs White Sox who do not hit him well

- Jays play low scoring tighter games vs weaker opponents I find so I like the UNDER more and with wind blowing in from leftfield, that's a bonus as most of Jays HRs in the last month go to centre or left center

Colorado-Boston - OVER 10x HALF U

-Rockies have been scoring runs these past 5 weeks and they face a pinata pitcher with strong warm wind blowing to green monster

-Gomber should be good for some runs too....

I cannot believe the line I am seeing.......major press for me

NY Mets +80 x 4U

- Clay Holmes is a quality pitcher and I feel like the Mets are in a turnaround after a funk, and the Subway Series got them there.... along with Brandon Nimmo heroics

- Brandon Young is such a pinata, dollar stores in Mexico and Baltimore have his picture on a hanging pinata in their stores....

-1.98 WHIP and over 7.00 era??? 

-this game may start late due to a weather system having to clear out but when it does, I expect the Mets to pummel Young to get to a terrible bullpen with a lead vs the 25th worst bullpen

I see some more hanging meat plays to grab and proudly take home on your shoulder (used to see this when I lived in the south of Spain) as you head home from the day's mlb betting market .......... 

@Last2thirst

Excuse me for asking, but what does METS+80 X 4Units mean? I get the 4Units, but don't understand the METS+80 part.

Where I see value elsewhere:

-Seattle has been strong on the road and scoring runs... Logan Gilbert has impressed me in June/July through this heat

-rain delay likely

-Warren is a good pitcher but watched him carefully when he played our local Blue Jays and he could not hit his spots with the catcher and the Jays lit him up ....Seattle is ALWAYS  a great middle of the season to finishing team ...ALWAYS

+115 with Seattle looks 

KC Under 7.5 is something I am eyeing for a 1 Unit play.... but  I like/taking KC x HALF U +75 with Lugo having a < 1.5 era during the warmest months 

Strong lean to the CUBS ....if Baltimore game was not such a big play for me, I would be attacking with the CUBS for 1 Unit

Laying off the Jays....bubble burst type of game....or OVER 9 is how I would go... Bassitt with over a 6 era recently and is not fooling anyone recently although he has a very strong inning here and there....Civale has been hit by the Jays so I can see 5-4 game AT LEAST .... you won't slow this Jays hitting lineup...they are full of competition and focus and hitters have patience with good swing selections

-my one caution on this game is, the Jays bullpen is now very rested for their best players as they were worked hard during the Yankees and Angels sweeps but the last 2 nights, Jays manager has used minor league and fringe relievers and the main players in the BP will be eager and sharp when they come in tonight

I also think, Chris Bassitt and Scherzer are chatting up a lot of time together and their is a little bit of healthy I can show you what I can do mentality when each gets to the mound....it started with Scherzer and I think after 2-3 average outings, Bassitt might snap into a killer game here and then hand it to the pen'

Texas ML +83 x 1U

-Eovaldi complete owns the Angels hitters with 0 HRs and low era in over 70 ABs

-Soriano been hit hard by the Rangers and a bit of  a pinata at home

 It means that if I win, I get back my investment +.80 cents on the dollar invested (I use BET365 and tend to look at moneyline numbers and quote them)

Ask away anytime buddy... and good luck on your bets 

Thanks for the response. I certainly will be rooting for you.