Game of Streaks: Stats and Picks June - Oct

@Last2thirst

Looking forward to your thoughts on today’s games. 

Keep up the great work!!

Sunday > take:

-Crochet + Boston runline +80 -1.5 runs x HALF U >> strong wind blowing out...he knows how to manage that/Junk fading as summer wears on

OVER Jays 7.5 x 1U >> Vegas trap here...dome is closed...Jays hit well but ball does not carry well....Eovaldi has been hit for over well over .300 lifetime vs Jays...150 ABs so that is not gonna stop with an overloaded lineup who are all competing for play time for playoffs

-Berrios getting tired it appears and hittable lately so I expect 3 runs from Strangers

UNDER 9 - Clev/Atl x HALF U - tend to fade Fedde but he has good numbers vs Clev lineup and Braves can't hit lefties well

-strong wind from lake to home plate usually helps keep score down so going with that...liked 8.5 so 9 runs is bonus

Lean Houston Under with my boy, Javier.... Kremer can be strong vs good lineups

OVER 12.5 Rockies x HALF U - pinata party!! Nuf said!

UNDER 10 Oakland/LAA x HALF U - two strong late season mound pitchers and Sacramento heat less influential/less carry on ball

DODGERS! ML +74 - Jays lit a fire under them and Glasnow impressed me with stuff and control on corners....Padres hit .128 lifetime.....I lean UNDER 8.5 but leerie of warm wind to dead centre and strong - Darvish with .178 BA vs this lineup over many many ABs

NIGHT GAME >> atypical for me > STRONG LEAN OVER 8.5 but want to see umpy assignment first

-take Mariners +78 ML x HALF U  with Kirby on fire and good lifetime vs Mets (Holmes is fading to pinata status lately)

Made +1.5 yesterday (almost a sweep!) to push my profit acct on season and will continue to bet the +13 U (>$1000) until gone or transferred for soccer/general account

@Last2thirst

Think I have the right play in the Mets game tonight...

-UNDER ump who is 2-2 OVER with 8.5 runs on season

- Could Kirby throw a shuttie? maybe with an assist from the umpy so maybe I just stay with my side for now and bet in game after or during, 1st inning

I rate the OVER 8.5 as medium > fair to strong chance 6.1/10 ....Jays game was a 7.9-82 rating in my thinking it through and what I saw it the stats /watching games 

JAYS 1 Unit win already in my account as BET365 does early settle as soon as number hits..!!

Whats your ytd these days? Best of luck!

You know what, I stopped keeping track after May 1 because I got my second rheumatoid arthritis attack in my ankles(s) to the point I could not walk except in excruciating pain from the bed with crutches to the toilet.....that went on for 2 weeks and about 4 weeks after when able stand. It meant I could not concentrate on everything like even keepiing up with game results but I did catch up eventually there....too much going on...not sure.

My account a month-6 weeks ago showed I was up $280 from a starting balance of $3000 .....so that is 3.6 UNITS and have managed to push it up to 13.6 while I have been very selective. My account going into today had me at $1067 profit 

I figure I am probably something like 126 - 110? ...could be worse but realize, I was also pressing when I lost a bet and then doubled the bet on the next one ...I stopped I think in early July doing that

-so my record is likely around 51-55% but with presses

Record today is 2-3 - 1  with one game hanging.....today had 2 games rollover late to losses....its baseball right 

Working on soccer spreadsheets tonight as NCAAF is almost done and still have a week there....soccer is tracking 11 divisions so lots of input but I like doing this and I find it has helped my bottom line by 10-25% depending on the sport, maybe more....best thing though is I still keep my data  sheets and summarize them so from year to year, I can really find my own patterns and get to know team momentums almost like follow stocks on swingtrades

CHeers

O

IS VEGAS NUTS?? 

Skenes is 7-9 but he ain't no Skubal for that matter.........I'm sorry but this is pure red meat for the Jays who love fastball pitchers who also have a strong out pitch and they sit on it or the fastball in certain situations ....and switch mid sequence

Jays have ripped Fried 2x, Skubal and any pitcher that has been thrown at them....only thing I worry here is Gausman is not super focused because I know he is motivated due to the fact, the Jays have Bieber, Scherzer starting in playoff games ....and likely LAUER ahead of him and Gausman due to lefty and lights out good this year.... but maybe they make him long relief?? Then it comes down to Bassitt or Gausman for the 3rd game in a series and I like either so he will be focus 

Skenes has been hit for 4 HRs vs Jays in 77 ABs but this team is scrappier than ever at the plate ...Skenes suffers brainfarts and this is the worst team in baseball to face at the plate to grind on a pitcher for pitch counts....

Gausman - .170's BA vs him from Pirates over many ABs 

Don't like Jays Under...Take ML +100 and lol x 1U

SEATTLE x 1U  +95....they owe me!!.... check out Gilberts lines vs Phillies lineup ....WOW...and that is for over 50 ABs

Baltimore ML +100 x HALF U ....Rogers is great to have in your corner and May is a pinata in my opinion ....how does Boston have a 3-1 lead with Crochet pitching and cough up to lose 5-3 after 9 innings.....hangover of that loss will hurt with a loosey goosey Orioles team who loves to smack the ball vs good teams....THEY COME VERY MOTIVATED and playing lately

Under KC-Texas 9 ...want to see weather in morning .... KC I would take as a side in a parlay...2 games over .500 and Wacha has controlled this Texas lineup completely when they play

FIREWORKS in BREWERS/CUBS.... 7-8 out of 10 games go OVER when these two play and its warm in Chicago tomorrow!

Great value > SF with Ray who controls Padres in career..... +120 ML vs a pukey Nestor Cortes? Might play tomorrow night 

Good that the Brewers pitching has not changed...still leaning OVER despite hot pitchers

@Last2thirst

GL

Thanks guys ....been in my other threads today....soccer going well now and NCAAF revving

This Jays game is tight....Orioles are proving....KC still going ....WTF is wrong with Seattle and Houston....it helps the Jays from having to play short series if they win division so I don't mind for that reason

Honestly, picks have not been good the past couple....will look for 1-2 plays only now unless I think the  day's card is killer

Maybe tomorrow? 

Astros are a mess right now > Give me DETROIT/SKUBAL to school them -1.5 +135 x HALF U  

(Account down to just over 10 Units profit before this bet)

Jays +115 -1.5 runs x 1U with old man Scherzer who has the juices flowing and lighting up the radar gun at 95-96 right now...beautiful to watch 

@Last2thirst