Giants are 5-22 (18.5%) returning home to West Coast (all home, except one to Dodgers) from an East Coast team in the last 10 years (not 2020).
Fading:
Total: 22-5 (81.5%)
Next day: 15-5 (75.0%)
2 or more days: 7-0 (100.0%)
Returning specifically from Miami = 1-5 (16.7%). Fading = 5–1 (83.3%).
Play: Diamondbacks ML
Good luck!
LV, you are correct, and here is additional info:
Logan Webb has a 4-3 record with an ERA of 2.80 and 51 strikeouts in 10 appearances against the Diamondbacks in his career.
Ironically, the Giants are 12-11-4 (52.2%) 1st 5 ML returning from East Coast in the last 10 years.
Although this could be the rare time to take Giants 1st 5 ML and D-Backs FG, I’m just going to take the D-Backs FG ML at +130.
@Sladerunningfox
Fading any team one day after a road trip is something I always look for. Excellent data!
It is tough to fade the 2023 Cy Young runner up at home. But, the D-backs as a team have had 125 ABs against him and they're hitting just under .300. In fact, the only one that doesn't see him well is Ketel Marte with a .158 avg. Everyone else for whatever reason has impressive numbers.
The Giants have far less experience with Nelson, only a total of 35 ABs. Although those that have seen him, have hit him. They're batting .323 in those 35 ABs. I wish Nelson didn't scare the shit out of me. He's given me nightmares in the past. Otherwise, I would definitely be on this with you. It's Dbacks or pass in my opinion.
I'm gonna pass, but I really like your analysis and wish you the best of luck 
Obviously, the Giant's offense looks sluggish. It's gonna be a tight game. But regardless of career numbers, Webb does look like the Cy Young runner up. I think Dback backers are gonna need the Giants pen to give this lead back. The bad news is Webb's pitch count looks like he's good for at least 1 or 2 more innings
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