Not a play I love, but it’s a solid, playable favorite at a fair number. I’m seeing a small edge on Atlanta, with my numbers having them slightly higher than the current line suggests. That said, I fully understand the concerns around starter volatility in this matchup.
Both pens top arms are expected to be available, but the difference for me comes down to the bullpen edge, I trust Atlanta’s pen significantly more than Cincinnati’s in a game that could be decided late.
Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been overly explosive recently, but they still carry a strong season-long profile 117 wRC+, and are more than capable of producing when needed.
Overall, this is a spot where I lean Atlanta to do enough across pitching depth and late game stability to come out ahead, even if the bats aren’t at their peak.
(May Add More Later)
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Lean: Atlanta Braves FG ML (0.5U)
Not a play I love, but it’s a solid, playable favorite at a fair number. I’m seeing a small edge on Atlanta, with my numbers having them slightly higher than the current line suggests. That said, I fully understand the concerns around starter volatility in this matchup.
Both pens top arms are expected to be available, but the difference for me comes down to the bullpen edge, I trust Atlanta’s pen significantly more than Cincinnati’s in a game that could be decided late.
Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been overly explosive recently, but they still carry a strong season-long profile 117 wRC+, and are more than capable of producing when needed.
Overall, this is a spot where I lean Atlanta to do enough across pitching depth and late game stability to come out ahead, even if the bats aren’t at their peak.
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