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Bodio's MLB Wed 09/14

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


NO.  You're going against Hudson who is a stud in his own right this year.  Zona offense + Hudson = Dodgers offense + Kershaw

Not worth the play at all, especially having to lay 30 cents of juice...I think the 'value' is on 'Zona here now, so I would probably change my lean now...GL

Ok ,i took  Dodgers  last night,i guess its too late now.

Thanks ! 
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by Ktrain:

I'm also kinda curious as to what you think about hedging the Yankees game later tonight with the Mariners RL? It's sitting at plus money the last time I checked. It's an opportunity to guarantee some money for the parlay and an opportunity to hit both. I guess something like 30% of all MLB league games are 1 run games.

Any thoughts? Thanks for everything you do.


1 runs games actually happen 28% of  the time.
That means 72% of the time you will give up a potential winner. 
Yankees at -200 odds are around 67% to win.  So you're going to give up a winner at 67% and decrease your long term profitability in the process.  

Let's see:  
28% * 2.04 Units = +0.57 Units long-term profit
67% * 1.14 Unit = +0.76 Units long-term profit

This is a big difference and I hope you see why bookies love when people hedge a potential strong winner.
 
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Posted: #78
Someone asked about Tampa and Mets.

Tampa has Wade Davis on the mound.  I think he's a terrible pitcher as his advanced stats indicate and I look to fade him not to back him.  I'd advise to stay away.

Mets are going up against a pitcher they've never seen before.  Pelfrey is below average who walks a lot of batters.  Just not worth it at those odds.
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

2011 MLB Record:
186 - 145 @ 56% for +22.47 Units




Wed 09/14

#1: Chicago White Sox -112 

Well, gambling gods owe me one and I expect them to redeem themselves in this one. 

Well, the gambling gods did it again!  That's twice that I've faded Penny against the ChiSox and twice Detroit comes back to tie it and win in the late innings.  WOW!
8-0 lead in the first one and a 5-2 lead in the 2nd one, in the 9th inning.  Hopefully the Bombers come through
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


1 runs games actually happen 28% of  the time.
That means 72% of the time you will give up a potential winner. 
Yankees at -200 odds are around 67% to win.  So you're going to give up a winner at 67% and decrease your long term profitability in the process.  

Let's see:  
28% * 2.04 Units = +0.57 Units long-term profit
67% * 1.14 Unit = +0.76 Units long-term profit

This is a big difference and I hope you see why bookies love when people hedge a potential strong winner.

I don't think I got my point across to you.

I did the Phillies/Yankees ML parlay you put out earlier for 1 unit.

I can get the Mariners RL(+1 1/2 runs) at +105 right now.

My question is should I throw a half unit on the Mariners RL with the opportunity to win a half unit regardless and the potential to win both if the Yankees win by 1 run?

I apologize if I am not reading your response correctly.

 

 
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Posted: #81

only reason didnt tail today was that chisox line was so fishy with penny you figure they would be at least -130 fave.

I'm 100% confident you will redeem yourself 2mrw.

 
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Posted: #82
bodio respect your input was waiting for better value on arizona since last night thanks and gl
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by MILFHUNTER74:

only reason didnt tail today was that chisox line was so fishy with penny you figure they would be at least -130 fave.

I'm 100% confident you will redeem yourself 2mrw.



redeem himself?? he was on the right side. sometimes you bet the right side and lose. that's like telling someone who gets it allin preflop with aces vs kings and loses that hopefully you can redeem yourself next time.
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by Ktrain:

I don't think I got my point across to you.

I did the Phillies/Yankees ML parlay you put out earlier for 1 unit.

I can get the Mariners RL(+1 1/2 runs) at +105 right now.

My question is should I throw a half unit on the Mariners RL with the opportunity to win a half unit regardless and the potential to win both if the Yankees win by 1 run?

I apologize if I am not reading your response correctly.

 


I wouldn't.  Unless you were planning on doing this prior to making the parlay wager.  Was this your plan all along?
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by MILFHUNTER74:

only reason didnt tail today was that chisox line was so fishy with penny you figure they would be at least -130 fave.

I'm 100% confident you will redeem yourself 2mrw.


No idea what you mean.  What does the line being 'fishy' have to do with anything?  The line was accurate! 
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Well, the gambling gods did it again!  That's twice that I've faded Penny against the ChiSox and twice Detroit comes back to tie it and win in the late innings.  WOW!
8-0 lead in the first one and a 5-2 lead in the 2nd one, in the 9th inning.  Hopefully the Bombers come through
Can't beat Penny!  No matter how bad he is (and he probably won't be on playoff roster), Tigers win!    Amazing!  I finally gave up.
 
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Posted: #87
Nova should stifle M's bats. Sea hitters undisciplined other than Ichiro.
 
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Posted: #88
Bodio -- I don't understand why you don't occasionally recommend 1st-5 bets, or I may have missed some of your 1st-5 recommendations. Forgive me if I've missed any.

I've done many 1st-5 bets and most of them have won, so I'm up plus money with my 1st-5 bets.

I took CWS 1st 5 today and won, as I had a feeling that the Tigers would come back and win the game. I had the thought to also do a Tigers ML and the Over bet, but did not pull the trigger on that one. The Tigers are amazing.

I like 1st-5 bets when my main bet is primarily based on the starting pitching and when there are gas-can bullpens lurking in the backgrounds of the respective teams.

Like tonight. My main bet is Yankees RL, but I'm going to do a hedge bet of Yankees ML 1st-5, as the Yanks frequently get some very quick runs right off the bat, so to speak, so my 1st-5 bet is structured to cover the RL bet loss, should that happen.

But I expect that both bets would win.

I'm bummed to miss out on the Ranger's game today, as I had the strong urge to bet Rangers ML 1st-5, plus Rangers RL, but did not pull the trigger.
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by Mozart:

Bodio -- I don't understand why you don't occasionally recommend 1st-5 bets, or I may have missed some of your 1st-5 recommendations. Forgive me if I've missed any.

I've done many 1st-5 bets and most of them have won, so I'm up plus money with my 1st-5 bets.

I took CWS 1st 5 today and won, as I had a feeling that the Tigers would come back and win the game. I had the thought to also do a Tigers ML and the Over bet, but did not pull the trigger on that one. The Tigers are amazing.

I like 1st-5 bets when my main bet is primarily based on the starting pitching and when there are gas-can bullpens lurking in the backgrounds of the respective teams.

Like tonight. My main bet is Yankees RL, but I'm going to do a hedge bet of Yankees ML 1st-5, as the Yanks frequently get some very quick runs right off the bat, so to speak, so my 1st-5 bet is structured to cover the RL bet loss, should that happen.

But I expect that both bets would win.

I'm bummed to miss out on the Ranger's game today, as I had the strong urge to bet Rangers ML 1st-5, plus Rangers RL, but did not pull the trigger.
  Stick to composing.  Sorry, just kiddin'.  Too easy.
 
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Posted: #90

Quote Originally Posted by Mozart:

Bodio -- I don't understand why you don't occasionally recommend 1st-5 bets, or I may have missed some of your 1st-5 recommendations. Forgive me if I've missed any.

I've done many 1st-5 bets and most of them have won, so I'm up plus money with my 1st-5 bets.

I took CWS 1st 5 today and won, as I had a feeling that the Tigers would come back and win the game. I had the thought to also do a Tigers ML and the Over bet, but did not pull the trigger on that one. The Tigers are amazing.

I like 1st-5 bets when my main bet is primarily based on the starting pitching and when there are gas-can bullpens lurking in the backgrounds of the respective teams.

Like tonight. My main bet is Yankees RL, but I'm going to do a hedge bet of Yankees ML 1st-5, as the Yanks frequently get some very quick runs right off the bat, so to speak, so my 1st-5 bet is structured to cover the RL bet loss, should that happen.

But I expect that both bets would win.

I'm bummed to miss out on the Ranger's game today, as I had the strong urge to bet Rangers ML 1st-5, plus Rangers RL, but did not pull the trigger.

i disagree with you on the NYY logic. The NYY have one of the best BP's in the league and should, therefore, give you better odds as the game progresses.

also, the NYY have one of the most disciplined hitters i have ever seen. they grind and grind and grind and evetually eat into your BP by the fifth or sixth innning.

and then they explode for multiple runs.

couldnt pull the trigger on holland, either. hes great on the road and not so great at home.

i tailed bodio tonight as well on the parlay.

my book closed phil at -280. way too much juice.

 
 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by Mozart:

Bodio -- I don't understand why you don't occasionally recommend 1st-5 bets, or I may have missed some of your 1st-5 recommendations. Forgive me if I've missed any.

I've done many 1st-5 bets and most of them have won, so I'm up plus money with my 1st-5 bets.

I took CWS 1st 5 today and won, as I had a feeling that the Tigers would come back and win the game. I had the thought to also do a Tigers ML and the Over bet, but did not pull the trigger on that one. The Tigers are amazing.

I like 1st-5 bets when my main bet is primarily based on the starting pitching and when there are gas-can bullpens lurking in the backgrounds of the respective teams.

Like tonight. My main bet is Yankees RL, but I'm going to do a hedge bet of Yankees ML 1st-5, as the Yanks frequently get some very quick runs right off the bat, so to speak, so my 1st-5 bet is structured to cover the RL bet loss, should that happen.

But I expect that both bets would win.

I'm bummed to miss out on the Ranger's game today, as I had the strong urge to bet Rangers ML 1st-5, plus Rangers RL, but did not pull the trigger.


everything in here is extremely, extremely inaccurate.
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