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Bodio's MLB Wed 09/14

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Posts: 91

scotty86

Prospect

Joined: Jun, 2010

Posts: 18

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 1:24 PM ET #26

Thanks for the picks Bodio. Are these your picks for the day or just afternoon picks?

0

sawman

Captain

Joined: Jul, 2011

Posts: 5100

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 1:25 PM ET #27

good luck - That NYY bet must be RL, right?

thanks for the info as always, bro!

0

416bet

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2011

Posts: 1581

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 1:25 PM ET #28

good luck today!

0

moemoney

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2005

Posts: 2897

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 1:33 PM ET #29

parlay looks very good bud!

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 1:35 PM ET #30

[Quote: Originally Posted by bodio]

2011 MLB Record:
186 - 145 @ 56% for +22.47 Units

Wed 09/14

#1: Chicago White Sox -112

Yeah I know Detroit is on a huge winning streak, but let's all remember that this is Brad Penny pitching for them on the mound today! Brad "I suck really bad" Penny! I faded him in his last start against the Chi-Sox where he promptly gave up 8 runs (4 ER's), 10 hits, 3 HR's and only 2 K's in 5 innings of work. Unfortunately, the Tigers came back from an 8-0 deficit to win that one. Well, gambling gods owe me one and I expect them to redeem themselves in this one. Axelrod is making his first MLB start ever today. We definitely have the 'unfamiliarity' angle in our favor. He's not an overpowering pitcher (87-89 MPH fastball) but his control is excellent. In his 59 innings in AA this year he had an 8.65 K/9 ratio (excellent) with a 2.12 BB/9 and a 2.36 FIP (3.34 ERA). In 91 innings with AAA he had a 7.39 K/9 with a 2.07 BB/9 and 2.66 FIP (2.27 ERA). The guy is a 'pitcher' and not just a flame-thrower, and I expect him to be fairly successful today. Even if he struggles a bit, White Sox have the superior BP behind him. I expect Detroit's streak to come to an end today.

#2: 2-team PARLAY
Philadelphia Phillies ML / New York Yankees ML: +114 (Combined odds!)

Yeah, I know I haven't had success with parlays this season but I can't help myself here. Doc is on the mound for Philly so no more needs to be said here. Opposite him is Norris, who is a solid young pitcher, except for when he's facing Philadelphia. He is 1-2 against them with a 5.30 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. He's coming off a couple of 'high-pitch' outings and I expect Philly to be successful off him today as they try to avoid a 3-game sweep in Houston.

Yankees are 33-14 (70%) against left-handers this year and 109-62 (63%) over the last couple of seasons. They're facing a Seattle team that scored more than 3 runs only once in the past 9 games. Vargas is 0-3 against the Bombers with a 8.14 ERA and 1.7 WHIP. His xFIP of 5.17 in August with a 1.09 K/BB ratio is the worst of this MLB season. He's clearly slowing down here in the stretch run. Nova comes into this one having faced Seattle only once in his career, which happened earlier this season. He got hit hard allowing 4 ER's on 5 hits in 3.7 innings of work. Well, there are a number of new bats in the Mariners lineup today that haven't seen Nova yet. More importantly that last outing was in May, when he had a 4.63 xFIP and 1.15 K/BB ratio. Since then Nova has been pitching much better. He finished August with a 3.19 xFIP and a 3.43 K/BB ratio. He's allowed 3 ER's or less in 8 of his last 9 starts, and I expect Yankees to provide plenty of run-support for him in this one.

I expect comfortable wins for both Phillies and New York tonight, so will play them in a parlay to reduce the juice.

Good luck!

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

-----------------------------------
TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580

0

[Quote: Originally Posted by bodio]

2011 MLB Record:
186 - 145 @ 56% for +22.47 Units

Wed 09/14

#1: Chicago White Sox -112

Yeah I know Detroit is on a huge winning streak, but let's all remember that this is Brad Penny pitching for them on the mound today! Brad "I suck really bad" Penny! I faded him in his last start against the Chi-Sox where he promptly gave up 8 runs (4 ER's), 10 hits, 3 HR's and only 2 K's in 5 innings of work. Unfortunately, the Tigers came back from an 8-0 deficit to win that one. Well, gambling gods owe me one and I expect them to redeem themselves in this one. Axelrod is making his first MLB start ever today. We definitely have the 'unfamiliarity' angle in our favor. He's not an overpowering pitcher (87-89 MPH fastball) but his control is excellent. In his 59 innings in AA this year he had an 8.65 K/9 ratio (excellent) with a 2.12 BB/9 and a 2.36 FIP (3.34 ERA). In 91 innings with AAA he had a 7.39 K/9 with a 2.07 BB/9 and 2.66 FIP (2.27 ERA). The guy is a 'pitcher' and not just a flame-thrower, and I expect him to be fairly successful today. Even if he struggles a bit, White Sox have the superior BP behind him. I expect Detroit's streak to come to an end today.

#2: 2-team PARLAY
Philadelphia Phillies ML / New York Yankees ML: +114 (Combined odds!)

Yeah, I know I haven't had success with parlays this season but I can't help myself here. Doc is on the mound for Philly so no more needs to be said here. Opposite him is Norris, who is a solid young pitcher, except for when he's facing Philadelphia. He is 1-2 against them with a 5.30 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. He's coming off a couple of 'high-pitch' outings and I expect Philly to be successful off him today as they try to avoid a 3-game sweep in Houston.

Yankees are 33-14 (70%) against left-handers this year and 109-62 (63%) over the last couple of seasons. They're facing a Seattle team that scored more than 3 runs only once in the past 9 games. Vargas is 0-3 against the Bombers with a 8.14 ERA and 1.7 WHIP. His xFIP of 5.17 in August with a 1.09 K/BB ratio is the worst of this MLB season. He's clearly slowing down here in the stretch run. Nova comes into this one having faced Seattle only once in his career, which happened earlier this season. He got hit hard allowing 4 ER's on 5 hits in 3.7 innings of work. Well, there are a number of new bats in the Mariners lineup today that haven't seen Nova yet. More importantly that last outing was in May, when he had a 4.63 xFIP and 1.15 K/BB ratio. Since then Nova has been pitching much better. He finished August with a 3.19 xFIP and a 3.43 K/BB ratio. He's allowed 3 ER's or less in 8 of his last 9 starts, and I expect Yankees to provide plenty of run-support for him in this one.

I expect comfortable wins for both Phillies and New York tonight, so will play them in a parlay to reduce the juice.

Good luck!

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

-----------------------------------
TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580

DDH420

MVP

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 15506

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 1:35 PM ET #31

Well I didn't have the nards (or more likely brains

) to go against DET but I day actually lay off if you can believe it. Also glad you like the YANKS and PHILS. I mixed them in my card as well. Also I tailed all 3 last night and it helped me to a 4-2 MLB card so thanx.

For today I went with:

UEFA C.L (1)MAN U -0.5 +105

MIXED(1)MAN CITY to REAL MADRID to PHILLIES +130 X 1.5 UNITS

MLB(1)TO/BOS O 10.5 -115 (2)MIL-1.5 to NYY-1.5 +310

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 1:35 PM ET #32

Quote Originally Posted by scotty86:

Thanks for the picks Bodio. Are these your picks for the day or just afternoon picks?

Final picks for today (I tried to type that under the plays above but for some reason it didn't come up)

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 1:36 PM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by sawman:

good luck - That NYY bet must be RL, right?

thanks for the info as always, bro!

NO! 2-team parlay! The odds are combined odds for the parlay! :)

0

Cao75

Rookie

Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 910

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 1:40 PM ET #34

Oh mine !!! mine book is rippin me off at

New York Yankees ML -220 . i guess no play . BOL bodio !!

0

bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 1:46 PM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

Well I didn't have the nards (or more likely brains

) to go against DET but I day actually lay off if you can believe it. Also glad you like the YANKS and PHILS. I mixed them in my card as well. Also I tailed all 3 last night and it helped me to a 4-2 MLB card so thanx.

For today I went with:

UEFA C.L (1)MAN U -0.5 +105

MIXED(1)MAN CITY to REAL MADRID to PHILLIES +130 X 1.5 UNITS

MLB(1)TO/BOS O 10.5 -115 (2)MIL-1.5 to NYY-1.5 +310

Really like Real Madrid today in your parlays. Zagreb has a number of players out with injuries and suspensions and I expect Real to field a very strong team.

0

JMAG

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 1839

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 1:50 PM ET #36

GL Bodio! On both of these with you!

0

bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 1:51 PM ET #37

Quote Originally Posted by Cao75:

Oh mine !!! mine book is rippin me off at

New York Yankees ML -220 . i guess no play . BOL bodio !!

Big time rip-off!

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Ktrain

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 6580

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 2:03 PM ET #38

I love fading Brad Penny. Any thoughts about maybe using a 5 inning line? Last time Penny faced the Sox he left the game down 8-1 and the Tigers rallied to win 9-8.

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luiko1

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2011

Posts: 334

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 2:03 PM ET #39

best of luck today bro,,,

love your lean on Marlins,,i also like the under but only hit marlins +150 1st 5 jeje,,,

love your white soxs play, penny really sucks and i expect soxs win first time this season vs penny,,should be on the over also,,,

what you thin about weaver and under? i think theres a nice value

and i see you lean on cueto and kershaw,,what youprefer? i think kershaw gets the money tonight

thanks alot!

0

jellsbury

Prospect

Joined: Jul, 2011

Posts: 48

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 2:29 PM ET #40

Bodio, great picks again last night. Tailed again today so BOL! Thoughts on Angels ml, Reds ml, Dodgers ml please? I'm heavily leaning dodgers and angels. Reds too juiced up in my opinion but maybe a parlay with Real Madrid?

0

sabia

All-Star

Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 10444

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 2:41 PM ET #41

0

bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 2:51 PM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by luiko1:

best of luck today bro,,,

love your lean on Marlins,,i also like the under but only hit marlins +150 1st 5 jeje,,,

love your white soxs play, penny really sucks and i expect soxs win first time this season vs penny,,should be on the over also,,,

what you thin about weaver and under? i think theres a nice value

and i see you lean on cueto and kershaw,,what youprefer? i think kershaw gets the money tonight

thanks alot!

+

After fully capping these games you mentioned I don't like any of them. Kershaw at home is not worth it against Hudson who can pitch a shut-out any time on the mound. Weaver doesn't provide any 'value' IMO as Harden is pitching really well. GL

0

bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 2:56 PM ET #43

Quote Originally Posted by jellsbury:

Bodio, great picks again last night. Tailed again today so BOL! Thoughts on Angels ml, Reds ml, Dodgers ml please? I'm heavily leaning dodgers and angels. Reds too juiced up in my opinion but maybe a parlay with Real Madrid?

Don't like either Angels or Dodgers today. They're both facing very solid pitchers..Not worth the juice at all!

Reds ML with Real is OK but I think it's too late. Cueto is too juiced up and I think Real Madrid already started.

0

BeatThaBooks416

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 2540

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 2:59 PM ET #44

on both Good Luck

0

Reno0254

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 131

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 3:04 PM ET #45

GL Buddy

0

DJM5226

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 1254

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 3:04 PM ET #46

GL Bodio! Any thoughts an A's/Angels O/U?

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LuckyNumber9

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 331

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 3:06 PM ET #47

What about Texas today?

0

Fortmax

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 757

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 3:12 PM ET #48

Bodio,

Will you take the Dodgers - 130 ? , i took it because of Kershaw.

Halos must win again to keep its hopes alive.

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 3:13 PM ET #49

Quote Originally Posted by DJM5226:

GL Bodio! Any thoughts an A's/Angels O/U?

Got this one at 7.1 total runs. Total seems to be very accurate

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Sep. 14, 2011 - 3:14 PM ET #50

Quote Originally Posted by LuckyNumber9:

What about Texas today?

Way too juiced up

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Bodio's MLB Wed 09/14

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