Bodio's MLB Wed 08/17

Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

I think irrelevant is a bit much but thanx for the thoughts. It still shows his team can't hit for shit and IMHO I also believe guys will have different approaches when a certain starter is on the hill for their team.

Watching the JAYS for years I saw it with Halladay. The team liked to start swinging out of their shoes when Doc was pitching perhaps thinking he'd keep them in the game until someone went deep rather than just keeping the a.b's coming.

 I even think managers may (whether they would ever admit it or not) call the game differently when they have a junk starter on the hill being less likely to run or bunt and edge out runs and instead play for the big innings knowing their guy is probably going to give up a crooked number himself.

You know far more about bases than me so I can't say your wrong but I do disagree to an extent that run support is irrelevant. Still thanx again for the time and insight

I'd like to see a real analysis on this, but without it we have to assume it's irrelevant.  For the most part, batters have the same approach at the plate, no matter who is pitching for their team.  But then again, maybe the game is managed a bit differently when Doc is on the mound as opposed to Bruce Chen.  At the same time, even if it is managed/played differently, it won't make a significant enough difference to use it for statistical analysis IMO.  That's why it's best to just ignore those 'run support' stats.  The fact that Cain gets low run-support has nothing to do with him, just with the fact that Giants' offense is not very good.  Either way, I don't see any relevance at looking at 'run support' stats when handicapping baseball, and until I see a solid statistical analysis to prove me wrong, I won't pay much attention to those #'s.  Either way, I do like your points, I just don't think they're statistically relevant even if true (I could see how they could be true).

Either way, speaking of Bruce Chen................................................................

Now.

Had strong leans on Padres and Blue Jays but decided to lay-off those 2.  They got too juiced up and all the 'value' was gone.

Plus Padres offense is very weak with the guys they have starting and it doesn't help that they've never seen Gee before.  He's coming off a 74-pitch outing so should be fairly fresh.

As for the Blue Jays, a similar situation.  Morrow is a solid pitcher especially on the road this year, but this is the 2nd time Seattle will be seeing him.  Seattle is swinging the bats a bit right now, so laying over -140 with Morrow is fairly dangerous. 

Good luck tonight fellas!

I have a question for you Bodio...

I have a strong lean on Tex/LAA under 7.5 tonight as well, but the only thing holding me back is Ervin's career #'s vrs texas..He's been the best pitcher in baseball since the all star break, but he has terrible career #'s vrs texas. Do I value his dominant last 10+ game stretch more then I do his career numbers? IMO, his recent starts matter more to me and CJ has great numbers vrs LA , but wanted your opinion.