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Bodio's MLB Wed 08/17

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Posted: #27
GL bodio!
 
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Posted: #28
As always great info, thanks and good luck.
 
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Posted: #29
Hey BOD's BOL on the TB play.I went with the O in all 3 of the early games,hoping I get at least 2.

The reason I came in though is to tell you my p.o.w for CFL is T.O -3. Not much to pick from since it's a bye week with only two games but I still really like this play. I took T.O +7.5 in HAM last week and although they did give up the lead they covered the line and looked much better than in weeks past.

They have their star R.B back and pounding the ball and a new D.Coordinator that has been with the team for years and got some much needed intensity out of his boys last week and I think that will continue in their first home game with these changes.

Also found it kinda funny that MON -6.5 was my p.o.w last week and that game I went 3-2 +1 UNITS whereas the rest of the week I was 8-1 +12.95 UNITS on the last 3 games of the week. Even the wagerline is going well I'm 13-3 for 81.25% in August and now the number 1 team expert for WINNY at 12-1 on their games.

Thanx again for all the hard work and great picks. Hopefully I can actually give you a winner for a change. Take Care Bro-Bodio
 
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Posted: #30
GL Bodio,,,,,,,,,,,
 
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Posted: #31
This is a bet that has to be made IMO.

Price > Lackey

Today's Red Sox Line-up = Today's Rays Line-up

Ignoring home park advantage, this line gives betters an edge over the books. Rays have a better than 53% chance of winning.
 
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Posted: #32

I'll roll with ya. Even if I lose I'll feel much better through the game with the much better pitcher. Backing Lackey

Much appreciated B.

 

 

 
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Posted: #33
GL!
 
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Posted: #34
Good luck Bodio ! 
 
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Posted: #35



Keep it going Bo!!
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by jsaptny:

Glad you dropped your Danny Duffy experiment, I almost bit last night but thought better of it.  Saw you leaned 'stros + over, seems like a decent hedge in case Bud goes Bust.  BOL to you bro!

Yeah, Danny Duffy experiment is OVA'!!!  :)
 
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Posted: #37
GL
 
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Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

Hey BOD's BOL on the TB play.I went with the O in all 3 of the early games,hoping I get at least 2.

The reason I came in though is to tell you my p.o.w for CFL is T.O -3. Not much to pick from since it's a bye week with only two games but I still really like this play. I took T.O +7.5 in HAM last week and although they did give up the lead they covered the line and looked much better than in weeks past.

They have their star R.B back and pounding the ball and a new D.Coordinator that has been with the team for years and got some much needed intensity out of his boys last week and I think that will continue in their first home game with these changes.

Also found it kinda funny that MON -6.5 was my p.o.w last week and that game I went 3-2 +1 UNITS whereas the rest of the week I was 8-1 +12.95 UNITS on the last 3 games of the week. Even the wagerline is going well I'm 13-3 for 81.25% in August and now the number 1 team expert for WINNY at 12-1 on their games.

Thanx again for all the hard work and great picks. Hopefully I can actually give you a winner for a change. Take Care Bro-Bodio


Nice...thanks buddy

Toronto -3 it is!!!

DDH420's POW CFL record:  2-1 for +0.9 Units

Let's go for 3 in a row buddy! 
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

This is a bet that has to be made IMO.

Price > Lackey

Today's Red Sox Line-up = Today's Rays Line-up

Ignoring home park advantage, this line gives betters an edge over the books. Rays have a better than 53% chance of winning.

Agree 100%.  Just no way to pass up on this bet.

 
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Posted: #40

Bodio,

Tough beat on the cubbies for sure!  It's all good took the astros today!  Watching the cubs you gotta expect things like that to happen.  So to be surprised would be stupid of me.  It was the right play even though the right play doesnt always win.  Good luck today!  Ready for NFL!!!

GO BLUE!!!

 
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Posted: #41
GL and thanks again for the great analysis. I tailed with TB as well...was debating the over but laid off
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by mtp104:

Bodio,

Tough beat on the cubbies for sure!  It's all good took the astros today!  Watching the cubs you gotta expect things like that to happen.  So to be surprised would be stupid of me.  It was the right play even though the right play doesnt always win.  Good luck today!  Ready for NFL!!!

GO BLUE!!!


Excellent outlook.  Stay disciplined and composed, and you'll be alright in the long-run.  Go 'Stros! 
 
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Posted: #43
Holy shit I knew Cliff Lee was having a great year but his advanced stats are nuts. 8,3 and 17. Not really sure what they mean but just by comparison it's brilliant.I wimped out on playing MIN and ZONA each S.U yesterday hoping for a split but today I'm not even thinking about Zona with the discrepancy in starters. Thanx for the heads up
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:



Nice...thanks buddy

Toronto -3 it is!!!

DDH420's POW CFL record:  2-1 for +0.9 Units

Let's go for 3 in a row buddy! 
Just checked it now and see it's down to -2.5. Not sure why and it has me a little worried but I'm sticking with it. Hopefully your book has it at -2.5 as well......Either way BOL
 
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Posted: #45
Bodio what you think about Ock vs Baltimore over or under?

cheers
 
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Posted: #46
Hey,

To answer your question from the previous thread,  RS= Runn Support and BIPA= Balls in play average.
 
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Posted: #47
hello Bodio, please tell me what you think about these plays: ATL/SFG under, CIN, TOR, MIN, SDP and LAA/TEX under
what are the best 2 plays ?

thank you and,
best of luck from Romania
 
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Posted: #48
TAMPA BAY  
 
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Posted: #49
I see the line has jumped from -120 when it opened to -135 where it sits now but I still think thats decent value for the CARDS. Paul Maholm had a great start to his season but has since regressed quite a bit. In his L6 he has just a single quality start. In those outings he's lasted just 35.2 innings,given up 51 hits and 24 runs 23 earned. Also Maholm has a 5.80 ERA since the allstar break and has a0-4 record in that stretch. Kyle Loshe goes for the CRADS and he is pitching well and currently in the middle of the best year of his career.

Neither starter has particularly good numbers vs their opposing team but I like the overall hotter pitcher and the Cards bats a bit more in this one. Is the recent H2H numbers for each pitcher against tonights opponent keeping you from a lean either way in this one....Thanx
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by ptl647:

Bodio what you think about Ock vs Baltimore over or under?

cheers

Nothing today.  My model has it at 7.7 for today so about 0.8 runs of 'value' to the under.  I don't usually play those, as I need at least 1 run of 'value' to consider it. 

I looked at the game briefly and would lean to the under as well.  A's have never seen Simon before, and prior to 2 poor outings he's been fairly decent.  McCarthy is a top 25 pitcher according to Adv. Stats.  He did get hit on the knee in his last start, but is supposedly alright.  

GL
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