Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
121 - 102 @ 54% for +7.30 Units
Wed 07/20
#1: Cincinnati Reds -122
The Pirates have taken 2 games so far in this series, by a combined score of 3-0. Can they really shut-down the Reds offense for a 3rd straight game? Hmmm. Karstens is having a very solid year as a starter. He has given up 3 or less ER's in all but 1 of his 16 starts. In that one start where he gave up more, he was facing this same Reds squad. Actually in his career against the Reds he is 0-4 with a 6.47 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. He might be exactly what the Reds need to finally put up some runs in this series. As decent as Karstens has been this year, he has allowed 17 HR's on the season for a 1.44 HR/9 ratio (one of the worst in the league). His 4.68 K/9 is unimpressive and a .235 BABIp with a 44% GB-rate is in indication of a lot of 'luck' working in his favor so far this season. Luck, and not allowing free-passes of course, which has led to minimal damage when he does give up those HR"s. In addition, Karsten's 4.8 tERA (#148) is another indicator of how lucky he has been this year, in comparison to his 2.34 ERA. Cincy is the type of a squad that has a history of success in this matchup, and I like Karsten's 'luck' to run out tonight. Opposite him is Johnny Cueto, who has NOT allowed more than 3 ER's in any of his starts this year (13 starts). That's just as impressive as Karstens. Unlike Karstens though, Cueto has had a lot of success going up against the Pirates with a 9-3 lifetime record and 2.79 ERA / 1.1 WHIP. He has solid advanced stats, which are all better than Karstens, even though the .217 BABIP is a bit of a concern (since his GB% of 55% is so high, his BABIP is expected to be lower than normal, but not this low). I'm not too worried since he'll be going up against a 23rd ranked Pirates offense here. Last time Cincy was swept in a series was in May @ the Indians. I expect that to stay a fact after today's game!
Good luck!
There are a couple more games that I'm looking at closely. Final plays and write-ups will be posted by 5 PM today.
121 - 102 @ 54% for +7.30 Units
Wed 07/20
#1: Cincinnati Reds -122
The Pirates have taken 2 games so far in this series, by a combined score of 3-0. Can they really shut-down the Reds offense for a 3rd straight game? Hmmm. Karstens is having a very solid year as a starter. He has given up 3 or less ER's in all but 1 of his 16 starts. In that one start where he gave up more, he was facing this same Reds squad. Actually in his career against the Reds he is 0-4 with a 6.47 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. He might be exactly what the Reds need to finally put up some runs in this series. As decent as Karstens has been this year, he has allowed 17 HR's on the season for a 1.44 HR/9 ratio (one of the worst in the league). His 4.68 K/9 is unimpressive and a .235 BABIp with a 44% GB-rate is in indication of a lot of 'luck' working in his favor so far this season. Luck, and not allowing free-passes of course, which has led to minimal damage when he does give up those HR"s. In addition, Karsten's 4.8 tERA (#148) is another indicator of how lucky he has been this year, in comparison to his 2.34 ERA. Cincy is the type of a squad that has a history of success in this matchup, and I like Karsten's 'luck' to run out tonight. Opposite him is Johnny Cueto, who has NOT allowed more than 3 ER's in any of his starts this year (13 starts). That's just as impressive as Karstens. Unlike Karstens though, Cueto has had a lot of success going up against the Pirates with a 9-3 lifetime record and 2.79 ERA / 1.1 WHIP. He has solid advanced stats, which are all better than Karstens, even though the .217 BABIP is a bit of a concern (since his GB% of 55% is so high, his BABIP is expected to be lower than normal, but not this low). I'm not too worried since he'll be going up against a 23rd ranked Pirates offense here. Last time Cincy was swept in a series was in May @ the Indians. I expect that to stay a fact after today's game!
Good luck!
There are a couple more games that I'm looking at closely. Final plays and write-ups will be posted by 5 PM today.
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
-----------------------------------
TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
-----------------------------------
TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
0
GL bodio
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