Bodio's MLB Thur 04/14

Bodio (a thank you, an observation, and a question for you):

First of all, thanks again for the forthright and thoughtful write-ups in both baskets and bases. They're must-read for anyone hoping to "cap the cappers".. you may not always be right, but you're always thoughful and thorough.. thanks again and again..

The depth of the capping coverage in these two games is as good as it gets. Loved the detail and insight in both. Bet both, won both, and parlayed them with other picks and won those as well.

But it seems to me that the books are setting total numbers based on the net effect of 16 dimensions across 8 factors including SP, Off. RP, & Def, maybe in that order.. and even if you're right on 4 or 5 of those, if you're way off on 1 or 2 of the others, all that good capping work can be for naught..

So, here's the question.. wouldn't it make some sense to isolate in on 2-3 factors instead of 8? In certain cases, why wouldn't we focus in on the individual team o/u plays when we like the match-ups of primarily starting pitching and opposing batting..

Your STL/LAD matchup is a perfect example. Card bats (sans Pujols) are alive and getting warmer. Kuroda tends not to be strong in this situation per your capping observation. The Card o/u number for 9 innings is 3.. Exsqueeze me? 3? ayfkm? They had 3 in the 2nd inning..

Similarly, the COL individual o/u numbers were 3.5 and 4..

Mets games have tended toward O anyway lately, so both of those looked like good bets along with the COL side on both as well..

But to me, the individual total number play, a derivative function of about 8 factors can be isolated and exploited in certain situations..

I still want to read as much as possible about the matchups, but as often as not, that's how I'm going to play it..

On the other side of the equation, why wouldn't we take the individual number Under for teams facing Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay, and Cliff Lee? Those guys tend to go the distance anyway or near there which tends to minimize the RP effect..

Thanks and kutgw..