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All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

Bodio's MLB Thur 04/14

123456 Next Last»
bodio
Orangemen44
kanak_attack
saviola
SharpBettor1
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123456 Next Last»
 
bodio
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 5:10 AM ET #1

2011 MLB Record:
14 - 8 @ 64% for +5.29 Units




Thur, 04/14

#1: Houston Astros -111

I know most people will look at Moseley's numbers and think that he doing well this season (3 ER's in 13 innings), but I still think he's a very marginal pitcher. On the season he only has 3 strike-outs in those 13 innings, and it's not going to get it done tonight. Keep in mind that Moseley pitched 107 innings in his last outing, the most of his career. I'd be curious to see how that effects him tonight. Norris, on the other hand, has allowed 9 ER's in 10 innings this year. He does have 13k's in that time-span. Obviously, Norris is the opposite of Moseley here, as he has a high ERA but a much higher K/9 ratio. Against a weak hitting SD lineup, I expect Norris to have a solid outing in this one. I'll grab the home team at this short price.


#2: St Louis Cardinals +113


Kuroda is coming off a game where he threw 117 pitches in . Thats the most he has thrown in a game in all of 2010 and 2011. Last year, Kuroda had 5 games, following a 110+ pitch performance in a prior one. Here are his results in those:

After throwing 115 pitches: 5.1 inn; 7 hits; 4 ER's
After throwing 110 pitches: 1.2 inn; 8 hits; 6 ER's
After throwing 112 pitches: 6 inn; 4 hits; 3 ER's
After throwing 115 pitches: 7 inn; 7 hits; 4 ER's
After throwing 112 pitches: 6 inn; 4 hits; 1 ER

Only one of those instances, he had a solid outing. The rest, he has allowed 26 hits in 20 innings, and 17 ER's. And with the way Garcia is pitching, even a couple of runs could be enough. Garcia has allowed 1 ER and only 8 hits in 15 innings of work. He has 18 K's to only 3 BB's this season (6 to 1 ratio). Impressive numbers. At the same time, Cards lineup is very hot right now. In 4 games since Holliday came back to the lineup, they're averaging 14.5 hits per game and scoring 9 runs per. I like the Cards to have success against Kuroda in this one.

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400

--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330



"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
2011 MLB Record:
14 - 8 @ 64% for +5.29 Units




Thur, 04/14

#1: Houston Astros -111

I know most people will look at Moseley's numbers and think that he doing well this season (3 ER's in 13 innings), but I still think he's a very marginal pitcher. On the season he only has 3 strike-outs in those 13 innings, and it's not going to get it done tonight. Keep in mind that Moseley pitched 107 innings in his last outing, the most of his career. I'd be curious to see how that effects him tonight. Norris, on the other hand, has allowed 9 ER's in 10 innings this year. He does have 13k's in that time-span. Obviously, Norris is the opposite of Moseley here, as he has a high ERA but a much higher K/9 ratio. Against a weak hitting SD lineup, I expect Norris to have a solid outing in this one. I'll grab the home team at this short price.


#2: St Louis Cardinals +113


Kuroda is coming off a game where he threw 117 pitches in . Thats the most he has thrown in a game in all of 2010 and 2011. Last year, Kuroda had 5 games, following a 110+ pitch performance in a prior one. Here are his results in those:

After throwing 115 pitches: 5.1 inn; 7 hits; 4 ER's
After throwing 110 pitches: 1.2 inn; 8 hits; 6 ER's
After throwing 112 pitches: 6 inn; 4 hits; 3 ER's
After throwing 115 pitches: 7 inn; 7 hits; 4 ER's
After throwing 112 pitches: 6 inn; 4 hits; 1 ER

Only one of those instances, he had a solid outing. The rest, he has allowed 26 hits in 20 innings, and 17 ER's. And with the way Garcia is pitching, even a couple of runs could be enough. Garcia has allowed 1 ER and only 8 hits in 15 innings of work. He has 18 K's to only 3 BB's this season (6 to 1 ratio). Impressive numbers. At the same time, Cards lineup is very hot right now. In 4 games since Holliday came back to the lineup, they're averaging 14.5 hits per game and scoring 9 runs per. I like the Cards to have success against Kuroda in this one.

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400

--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330



"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
 
Orangemen44
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 5:11 AM ET #2

BOL
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BOL
 
kanak_attack
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 5:12 AM ET #3

jeeze nice right up. where do you get your information from?
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jeeze nice right up. where do you get your information from?
 
saviola
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 5:19 AM ET #4

Thanks Bodio! GL today!
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Thanks Bodio! GL today!
 
SharpBettor1
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 5:24 AM ET #5

Nice write-ups, but you don't seem to do well when you bet on STL games, maybe today it will be different.
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Nice write-ups, but you don't seem to do well when you bet on STL games, maybe today it will be different.
 
docterd597
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 5:24 AM ET #6

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2112
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 5:45 AM ET #7

Good info. GL Bodio 
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Good info. GL Bodio 
 
NYBartender
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 5:46 AM ET #8

Hey Bodio,

How did you do last MLB season? I see your MLBP record posted but not the regular season. Just curious how it went overall. Keep up the good work!
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Hey Bodio,

How did you do last MLB season? I see your MLBP record posted but not the regular season. Just curious how it went overall. Keep up the good work!
 
cubicman
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 7:50 AM ET #9

Bodio!!
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Bodio!!
 
North_14
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 8:05 AM ET #10

Bodio, Great Work as always, love the Cardinals after wha thier offense was able to accomplish this week in Zona..Your angle on Kuroda is spot on..

SD/Stros..  Bud Norris has been an absolute gas can, i know the padres dont hit it outta the park, but Norris has been dismal.. i know it looks like a square play, but the pitching advantage as to go with SD, and at +105.. there seems like to much value to go against the Pads!

 

As Always, love the write ups.

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Bodio, Great Work as always, love the Cardinals after wha thier offense was able to accomplish this week in Zona..Your angle on Kuroda is spot on..

SD/Stros..  Bud Norris has been an absolute gas can, i know the padres dont hit it outta the park, but Norris has been dismal.. i know it looks like a square play, but the pitching advantage as to go with SD, and at +105.. there seems like to much value to go against the Pads!

 

As Always, love the write ups.

 
ToyPro
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 8:14 AM ET #11

Good Luck Partner!
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Good Luck Partner!
 
RUSSINGER
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 8:18 AM ET #12

good luck bodio!!!
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good luck bodio!!!
 
Louis_IV
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 8:28 AM ET #13

bol

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bol

 
MrSquare
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 8:42 AM ET #14

Nice write ups .Like the Astros over .I do not believe that Norris has any idea how to pitch .He always falls behind in the count ,and has to come in with that straight 95 mph fastball.

Of course , I only see him pitch against the Phils .He may be a fine pitcher one day , but I can't back him until developes another pitch and a clue . Hope you win though .Good luck .

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Nice write ups .Like the Astros over .I do not believe that Norris has any idea how to pitch .He always falls behind in the count ,and has to come in with that straight 95 mph fastball.

Of course , I only see him pitch against the Phils .He may be a fine pitcher one day , but I can't back him until developes another pitch and a clue . Hope you win though .Good luck .

 
Brave3110
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 8:54 AM ET #15

BOL bro, keep the great work!!...any thoughts on the COL/METS game at noon??...im leaning COL...what ya think ?
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BOL bro, keep the great work!!...any thoughts on the COL/METS game at noon??...im leaning COL...what ya think ?
 
Barbosa212
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 9:25 AM ET #16

[Quote: Originally Posted by bodio]

#2: St Louis Cardinals +113

Kuroda is coming off a game where he threw 117 pitches in . Thats the most he has thrown in a game in all of 2010 and 2011. Last year, Kuroda had 5 games, following a 110+ pitch performance in a prior one. Here are his results in those:

After throwing 115 pitches: 5.1 inn; 7 hits; 4 ER's
After throwing 110 pitches: 1.2 inn; 8 hits; 6 ER's
After throwing 112 pitches: 6 inn; 4 hits; 3 ER's
After throwing 115 pitches: 7 inn; 7 hits; 4 ER's
After throwing 112 pitches: 6 inn; 4 hits; 1 ER

Only one of those instances, he had a solid outing. The rest, he has allowed 26 hits in 20 innings, and 17 ER's. And with the way Garcia is pitching, even a couple of runs could be enough. Garcia has allowed 1 ER and only 8 hits in 15 innings of work. He has 18 K's to only 3 BB's this season (6 to 1 ratio). Impressive numbers. At the same time, Cards lineup is very hot right now. In 4 games since Holliday came back to the lineup, they're averaging 14.5 hits per game and scoring 9 runs per. I like the Cards to have success against Kuroda in this one.

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400

--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330



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[Quote: Originally Posted by bodio]

#2: St Louis Cardinals +113

Kuroda is coming off a game where he threw 117 pitches in . Thats the most he has thrown in a game in all of 2010 and 2011. Last year, Kuroda had 5 games, following a 110+ pitch performance in a prior one. Here are his results in those:

After throwing 115 pitches: 5.1 inn; 7 hits; 4 ER's
After throwing 110 pitches: 1.2 inn; 8 hits; 6 ER's
After throwing 112 pitches: 6 inn; 4 hits; 3 ER's
After throwing 115 pitches: 7 inn; 7 hits; 4 ER's
After throwing 112 pitches: 6 inn; 4 hits; 1 ER

Only one of those instances, he had a solid outing. The rest, he has allowed 26 hits in 20 innings, and 17 ER's. And with the way Garcia is pitching, even a couple of runs could be enough. Garcia has allowed 1 ER and only 8 hits in 15 innings of work. He has 18 K's to only 3 BB's this season (6 to 1 ratio). Impressive numbers. At the same time, Cards lineup is very hot right now. In 4 games since Holliday came back to the lineup, they're averaging 14.5 hits per game and scoring 9 runs per. I like the Cards to have success against Kuroda in this one.

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400

--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330



 
Barbosa212
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 9:37 AM ET #17

Whoops....my post got erased and only left me with your quote....

I wanted to know if you were worried about the Cards playing their 3night in a row in 2 different cities away from home b2b.  The Cards bats have been really hot, and maybe time for them to cool down.  Do you worry about NBA "like" factors in baseball, with a very long grinding season on the road...Statistically STL is the play, but wonder if they are tired.  What I just mentioned may be built into the line however.  Do you have any thoughts on the MLB season, and the grind being factored into your plays??
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Whoops....my post got erased and only left me with your quote....

I wanted to know if you were worried about the Cards playing their 3night in a row in 2 different cities away from home b2b.  The Cards bats have been really hot, and maybe time for them to cool down.  Do you worry about NBA "like" factors in baseball, with a very long grinding season on the road...Statistically STL is the play, but wonder if they are tired.  What I just mentioned may be built into the line however.  Do you have any thoughts on the MLB season, and the grind being factored into your plays??
 
JD232
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 9:38 AM ET #18

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LVTruck
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 9:46 AM ET #19

Thanks
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Thanks
 
spixelpew
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 9:48 AM ET #20

Best of luck to everyone, and thank you, Bodio!
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Best of luck to everyone, and thank you, Bodio!
 
5t4r5align
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 9:50 AM ET #21

Thanks Bodio!  Great write ups as always
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Thanks Bodio!  Great write ups as always
 
xxMARTINIxx
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 10:00 AM ET #22

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Blackhawk4
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 10:10 AM ET #23

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archtown
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 10:11 AM ET #24

great writeup....
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great writeup....
 
 
2440
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Posted: Apr. 14, 2011 - 10:12 AM ET #25

thanks bodi
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thanks bodi
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