Bob's MLB Tuesday *** 5.31.16 ***

MLB 2016 --- Overall
YTD:101-75-12 (57%) *** +11.39% Return on Risk ***
ML: 54-42 (56%)
F5: 2-4-2 (33%)
RL: 11-6-2 (65%)
O/U: 34-23-8 (60%)
Starting / Current Bankroll: $9,391 / $11,638.92 (+$2,247.92, +23.94%)

MLB 2016 --- Picks of the Day
YTD: 29-20-4 (59%) *** +15.36% Return on Risk ***
ML: 14-10 (58%)
F5: 0-0-0 (0%)
RL: 3-2-0 (60%)
O/U: 12-8-4 (60%)

MLB 2015
Overall: 298-267-32 (53%) *** +6.46% Return on Risk ***
PODs: 108-87-12 (55%) *** +14.17% Return on Risk ***

MLB 2014
Overall: 826-685-112 (55%) *** +4.13% Return on Risk ***
PODs: 121-72-16 (63%) *** +16.60% Return on Risk ***

Season Win Totals (Pending)
Arizona Diamondbacks Over 81.5 (-130), Risk $100
Baltimore Orioles Over 79.5 (+150), Risk $100
Kansas City Royals Over 84.5 (+100), Risk $100

Monday
3-2-1, +$49.73
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102282354

Tuesday's Card

Boston Red Sox FG +109, Rodriguez/Gausman

St. Louis Cardinals FG -150, Leake/Peralta

Houston/Arizona Over 9 FG +100, McCuller/Corbin

Curious to get feedback on a potential new format. I would remove most of the record detail (e.g., splitting out by wager type).

Bankroll
Beginning / Current: $9,391.00 / $11,638.92
Profit: +$2,247.92 (+23.94%)
Average Line / Wager Size: -108 / $104.95

Overall Record
2016: 101-75-12 (57%), +11.39% Return on Risk
2015: 298-267-32 (53%), +6.46% Return on Risk ***
2014: 826-685-112 (55%), +4.13% Return on Risk ***

Picks of the Day Record
2016: 29-20-4 (59%), +15.36% Return on Risk ***
2015: 108-87-12 (55%), +14.17% Return on Risk ***
2014: 121-72-16 (63%), +16.60% Return on Risk ***

Do what makes YOU comfortable 

Much better! Get rid of previous years as well - you have enough sample size from this year for it to hold up now!

Actually keep the splits as they help show your relative strengths. But get rid of previous years

And keep posting winners....!

Keep the previous years records. It shows consistency over time. 

Hey Birds,

gl tonight BoB...we are both on a very similar run, i was getting worried there for a while

i think its good to see the breakdown..even for your sake to see what type of bets have the best return

what do you think about Houston vs Arizona ML...I know McCullers is coming off a decent start so i feel he is due for a stinker as he is still trying to round out into season shape...Not to mention Arizona has lost been around .500 the last 10 games and i think Corbin is a better pitcher at the moment...

Why play Cardinals moneyline instead of runline?

keyword they "should win" by that much, peralta can't keep sucking forever, i think St. Louis wins outright but not more then -1.5...

also milwaukee's home park is #9 in the league for most favorable for hitters with a huge edge of homerun hitting teams - STL's biggest strength is the homerun ball. The more you look at this, the more you really love it 

On the Red Sox also

well the play the game today, so we will see...i think Leake gets hammered and they pull one out Late in the 8th for a win. But just by 1 :)

I think I'm playing cards team total over 5 too you guys. I just don't see any way they don't explode in this game. I follow the cards pretty closely being a cubs fan and they really clobber bad pitching...Peralta is awful

Tuesday's Card *** Updated ***

St. Louis Cardinals FG -150, Leake/Peralta

Houston/Arizona Over 9 FG +100, McCuller/Corbin

Boston Red Sox FG +109, Rodriguez/Gausman

Minnesota/Oakland Over 4 F5 -135, Duffey/Surkamp

I think you have had enough external advce, so............

Your stats indicate your PODs are hitting at a higher rate - consistently. I don't know how you handicap games, but wouldn't it be wiser to not bet on your regular plays but increase the wager amount on your PODs?

I cap my daily amount of risk taken at 7.5% of bankroll.

Some days I scale my PODs are 1.50% of bankroll if I don't plan to have more than 3-4 plays. Otherwise, all bets are flat 1% of bankroll (~$115 right now). Although, i scaled PODs at 1.50% on Sat/Sun. I mainly started tracking them (and highlighting) since other people asked me to do it a few years back.

As far as relative returns go... my overall record is more significant statistically, since only about 25-30% of my picks are PODs. Back of the envelope math tells me I am returning about 10% on risk for regular plays (so about 5% points lower than PODs). I have become more selective over time - as evidenced by the number of plays decreasing each year - and the differential in return between regular and PODs have been converging as a result (each year). Very few people are going to be able to scale bets effectively. My preference would be to just change my selection criteria altogether.

It's possible that I transition to only wagering on what I would - today - consider PODs and increasing my wager size to 2% of bankroll. Before I made a drastic change, I wanted to track it (need evidence to support a change). In the meantime, I continue to learn from both my mistakes and successes so there is value (for me, at least) in experimenting.

Lastly, a 10% return on risk is VERY good, which is about what I've returned on regular plays. Not playing games that produce 10% RoR would be blasphemy!

A few years back, people used to sweat feartheweb. he was a talented capper with a high $ P/L (north of $20K at times), but his return on risk was much lower (< 4%) than most would assume. There were far better cappers to follow.

My goal going into the season is to return 5%+

Great record birdsonbat.