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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    Bob's MLB Monday *** 4.27.15 ***

    12 Next Last»
    BirdsOnBat
    KingScorpio
    martythomas
    VegasVandal
    DarthFader91
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 3863
    Posts: 41
    12 Next Last»
     
    BirdsOnBat
    BirdsOnBat
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    Posted: Apr. 26, 2015 - 11:32 PM ET #1

    MLB 2015 --- Overall
    YTD: 41-47-5 (47%) *** -7.05% Return on Risk ***
    ML: 27-30 (47%)
    F5: 3-4-2 (43%)
    RL: 2-3-2 (40%)
    O/U: 9-8-1 (53%)
    Parlays: 0-2-0 (0%)
    Starting / Current Bankroll: $5,216 / $4,848.87 (-$367.13, -7.05%)

    MLB 2015 --- Picks of the Day
    YTD: 10-13-3 (43%) *** -15.76% Return on Risk ***
    ML: 6-9 (40%)
    F5: 0-1-1 (0%)
    RL: 1-2-2 (33%)
    O/U: 3-1-0 (75%)

    MLB 2014
    Overall: 826-685-112 (55%) *** +4.13% Return on Risk ***
    PODs: 121-72-16 (63%) *** +16.60% Return on Risk ***

    Sunday's Results
    Record: 3-2-0 (60%)
    Risked: 5.50% of Bankroll ($269) --- WA line of -115
    Profit / Return on Risk: +$12.71 / +4.72%
    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102110532&page=2

    Monday's Card

    957 Pittsburgh Pirates (V. Worley) FG, +120 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

    977 Houston (McHugh) / San Diego (Shields) Under 6.5 FG, -105 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    MLB 2015 --- Overall
    YTD: 41-47-5 (47%) *** -7.05% Return on Risk ***
    ML: 27-30 (47%)
    F5: 3-4-2 (43%)
    RL: 2-3-2 (40%)
    O/U: 9-8-1 (53%)
    Parlays: 0-2-0 (0%)
    Starting / Current Bankroll: $5,216 / $4,848.87 (-$367.13, -7.05%)

    MLB 2015 --- Picks of the Day
    YTD: 10-13-3 (43%) *** -15.76% Return on Risk ***
    ML: 6-9 (40%)
    F5: 0-1-1 (0%)
    RL: 1-2-2 (33%)
    O/U: 3-1-0 (75%)

    MLB 2014
    Overall: 826-685-112 (55%) *** +4.13% Return on Risk ***
    PODs: 121-72-16 (63%) *** +16.60% Return on Risk ***

    Sunday's Results
    Record: 3-2-0 (60%)
    Risked: 5.50% of Bankroll ($269) --- WA line of -115
    Profit / Return on Risk: +$12.71 / +4.72%
    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102110532&page=2

    Monday's Card

    957 Pittsburgh Pirates (V. Worley) FG, +120 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

    977 Houston (McHugh) / San Diego (Shields) Under 6.5 FG, -105 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll
     
    KingScorpio
    KingScorpio
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 12:00 AM ET #2

    Pirates just swept a struggling Diamondback team without their best hitter in Lamb.Cubs are putting up runs and Pirates are sending out a pitcher that wouldn't even be in the starting rotation.
    There is no 100% cappers in the world
    Reply
    Pirates just swept a struggling Diamondback team without their best hitter in Lamb.Cubs are putting up runs and Pirates are sending out a pitcher that wouldn't even be in the starting rotation.
     
    martythomas
    martythomas
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 12:27 AM ET #3

    King Scorpio man thank you..I think dudes just say anything on covers..
    Reply
    King Scorpio man thank you..I think dudes just say anything on covers..
     
    VegasVandal
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 12:44 AM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

    Pirates just swept a struggling Diamondback team without their best hitter in Lamb.Cubs are putting up runs and Pirates are sending out a pitcher that wouldn't even be in the starting rotation.

     

    He's been posting every day for baseball and you don't think he knew that? Thanks for the speech of enlightenment you give people who actually do this every day while you stand behind the curtain with a dk up your azz.

    Continue being a worthless troll to the forum or delete your count for good. Nobody gives a flying fk about anything you have to say

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

    Pirates just swept a struggling Diamondback team without their best hitter in Lamb.Cubs are putting up runs and Pirates are sending out a pitcher that wouldn't even be in the starting rotation.

     

    He's been posting every day for baseball and you don't think he knew that? Thanks for the speech of enlightenment you give people who actually do this every day while you stand behind the curtain with a dk up your azz.

    Continue being a worthless troll to the forum or delete your count for good. Nobody gives a flying fk about anything you have to say

     
    DarthFader91
    DarthFader91
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 1:20 AM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:

     

    He's been posting every day for baseball and you don't think he knew that? Thanks for the speech of enlightenment you give people who actually do this every day while you stand behind the curtain with a dk up your azz.

    Continue being a worthless troll to the forum or delete your count for good. Nobody gives a flying fk about anything you have to say


    Well said. I agree, BOB knows his stuff I always read what he has to say. Very knowledgable imo.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:

     

    He's been posting every day for baseball and you don't think he knew that? Thanks for the speech of enlightenment you give people who actually do this every day while you stand behind the curtain with a dk up your azz.

    Continue being a worthless troll to the forum or delete your count for good. Nobody gives a flying fk about anything you have to say


    Well said. I agree, BOB knows his stuff I always read what he has to say. Very knowledgable imo.
     
    PicKnRole
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 1:22 AM ET #6

    Reply
     
    borje21
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 1:32 AM ET #7

     VegasVandal
    Reply
     VegasVandal
     
    cjm2008
    cjm2008
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 1:58 AM ET #8

    With you on the Pirates 
    Reply
    With you on the Pirates 
     
    MOCKY444
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 4:38 AM ET #9

    Couldn't agree more Vegas 
    Reply
    Couldn't agree more Vegas 
     
    LittleMacc79
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 5:58 AM ET #10

     bOl sir
    Reply
     bOl sir
     
    pappadoc
    pappadoc
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 7:31 AM ET #11

    Reply
     
    Learnersrealm
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 8:40 AM ET #12

    On the other side. GL tonight 
    Reply
    On the other side. GL tonight 
     
    BirdsOnBat
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 9:28 AM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

    Pirates just swept a struggling Diamondback team without their best hitter in Lamb.Cubs are putting up runs and Pirates are sending out a pitcher that wouldn't even be in the starting rotation.


    Jake Lamb is the best hitter on the Diamondbacks? Goldschmidt is and it's not even close. The diamondbacks aren't necessarily a struggling team... they just aren't a very good team. They will most likely win between 68 and 76 games.

    Both teams (Cubs and Pirates) are putting up runs. Pirates have scored 50 runs over their last 10 games (5/game), while the Cubs have scored 51 (5.1/game).

    If Worley isnt even a starter, then what does that say about the Cubs' offense? Worley held them to 1 unearned run over 5.2 innings less than a week ago. Hammel hasnt exactly looked great.

    This game is about a coin flip, so why lay juice? Take the better team at plus money.

    Good luck fellas!
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

    Pirates just swept a struggling Diamondback team without their best hitter in Lamb.Cubs are putting up runs and Pirates are sending out a pitcher that wouldn't even be in the starting rotation.


    Jake Lamb is the best hitter on the Diamondbacks? Goldschmidt is and it's not even close. The diamondbacks aren't necessarily a struggling team... they just aren't a very good team. They will most likely win between 68 and 76 games.

    Both teams (Cubs and Pirates) are putting up runs. Pirates have scored 50 runs over their last 10 games (5/game), while the Cubs have scored 51 (5.1/game).

    If Worley isnt even a starter, then what does that say about the Cubs' offense? Worley held them to 1 unearned run over 5.2 innings less than a week ago. Hammel hasnt exactly looked great.

    This game is about a coin flip, so why lay juice? Take the better team at plus money.

    Good luck fellas!
     
    BirdsOnBat
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 10:48 AM ET #14

    I will finalized my card here this afternoon, but I am going to bite on the Nationals line.

    Stults is very hittable and doesn't miss many bats. He also has a hard time keeping the ball down. This Nationals' offense has been sputtering (they really need Rendon back), but I dont think they need to plate 5 runs to take this game.

    The Braves can be pitched to and Fister is a guy who can do it. While his control has been spotty so far this year, he keeps the ball down and induces a good ratio of G/FB. The Braves are off to a good start, but this match-up clearly favors the Nationals. Today, the Nationals turn it around.

    The under was tempting at first, but I cant play the under in a game where Stults is pitching. Any pitcher can pitch a gem when they take the ball, but he could give up 5 runs himself. Throw in a young and inexperienced Braves' bullpen and this game could see a lot of runs if things go wrong (from the Braves' side).

    Washington Nationals (Fister) FG, -128 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll
    (5dimes)
    Reply
    I will finalized my card here this afternoon, but I am going to bite on the Nationals line.

    Stults is very hittable and doesn't miss many bats. He also has a hard time keeping the ball down. This Nationals' offense has been sputtering (they really need Rendon back), but I dont think they need to plate 5 runs to take this game.

    The Braves can be pitched to and Fister is a guy who can do it. While his control has been spotty so far this year, he keeps the ball down and induces a good ratio of G/FB. The Braves are off to a good start, but this match-up clearly favors the Nationals. Today, the Nationals turn it around.

    The under was tempting at first, but I cant play the under in a game where Stults is pitching. Any pitcher can pitch a gem when they take the ball, but he could give up 5 runs himself. Throw in a young and inexperienced Braves' bullpen and this game could see a lot of runs if things go wrong (from the Braves' side).

    Washington Nationals (Fister) FG, -128 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll
    (5dimes)
     
    BirdsOnBat
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 12:24 PM ET #15

    Monday's Card *** Updated ***

    953 Washington Nationals (Fister) FG, -128 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

    957 Pittsburgh Pirates (V. Worley) FG, +120 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

    *973 Detroit Tigers (D. Price) FG, -152 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

    977 Houston (McHugh) / San Diego (Shields) Under 6.5 FG, -105 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

    *
    After getting blow out his last start, I am not overly surprised the price on Price came in a bit. However, this is a different day against a different team (he dominated once already) w/ out the inclement weather. I arrived at a line of about -175, after taking into account home field advantage, for Price and the Tigers in this match-up. This suggests ~4 percentage points of line value (in terms of probability).

    I have stayed away from juice this season for the most part, but that wasn't necessarily by design.
    I have no qualms laying this kind of juice on a road team w/ this pitching and team match-up. My weighted average line (on wagers) was about -114 last season. This season I have been closer to even (i.e., far fewer juicy lines so far).
    Reply
    Monday's Card *** Updated ***

    953 Washington Nationals (Fister) FG, -128 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

    957 Pittsburgh Pirates (V. Worley) FG, +120 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

    *973 Detroit Tigers (D. Price) FG, -152 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

    977 Houston (McHugh) / San Diego (Shields) Under 6.5 FG, -105 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

    *
    After getting blow out his last start, I am not overly surprised the price on Price came in a bit. However, this is a different day against a different team (he dominated once already) w/ out the inclement weather. I arrived at a line of about -175, after taking into account home field advantage, for Price and the Tigers in this match-up. This suggests ~4 percentage points of line value (in terms of probability).

    I have stayed away from juice this season for the most part, but that wasn't necessarily by design.
    I have no qualms laying this kind of juice on a road team w/ this pitching and team match-up. My weighted average line (on wagers) was about -114 last season. This season I have been closer to even (i.e., far fewer juicy lines so far).
     
    KingScorpio
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 12:45 PM ET #16

    Taking the biggest road fav everyday 16-7
    8-2 last 10 days
    There is no 100% cappers in the world
    Reply
    Taking the biggest road fav everyday 16-7
    8-2 last 10 days
     
    KingScorpio
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 12:49 PM ET #17

    Sorry that should read 14-7 everyday
    There is no 100% cappers in the world
    Reply
    Sorry that should read 14-7 everyday
     
    KingScorpio
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 12:52 PM ET #18

    Taking the biggest road fav everyday 14-7 +5.06 Units
    There is no 100% cappers in the world
    Reply
    Taking the biggest road fav everyday 14-7 +5.06 Units
     
    KingScorpio
    KingScorpio
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 12:54 PM ET #19

    Fuc i'm a loser
    Taking the biggest road fav everyday 14-7 +4.06 Units
    There is no 100% cappers in the world
    Reply
    Fuc i'm a loser
    Taking the biggest road fav everyday 14-7 +4.06 Units
     
    BirdsOnBat
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 1:10 PM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

    Fuc i'm a loser
    Taking the biggest road fav everyday 14-7 +4.06 Units




    yep - nothing wrong w/ taking road favorites (even at steep prices). There's a reason why teams are favored often times.

    good luck tonight
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

    Fuc i'm a loser
    Taking the biggest road fav everyday 14-7 +4.06 Units




    yep - nothing wrong w/ taking road favorites (even at steep prices). There's a reason why teams are favored often times.

    good luck tonight
     
    Jose_Reyes
    Jose_Reyes
    Hall of Fame
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2010
    Posts: 20468
    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 1:17 PM ET #21

    Good luck BOB
    Reply
    Good luck BOB
     
    lockpicksMLB
    lockpicksMLB
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Apr, 2015
    Posts: 1
    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 1:33 PM ET #22

    Sup BoB, long time follower. Like the plays today brother
    I see potential value in the following:

    TOR +133
    NYY -133
    MIA -121
    MIL +105
    HOU +111

    any thoughts/insights you can provide would be much appreciated.
    BOL TODAY!
    Reply
    Sup BoB, long time follower. Like the plays today brother
    I see potential value in the following:

    TOR +133
    NYY -133
    MIA -121
    MIL +105
    HOU +111

    any thoughts/insights you can provide would be much appreciated.
    BOL TODAY!
     
    laggman1
    laggman1
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2015
    Posts: 647
    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 2:26 PM ET #23

    Love Pitt and Tigers today GL
    Reply
    Love Pitt and Tigers today GL
     
    BirdsOnBat
    BirdsOnBat
    Captain
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    Joined: Apr, 2014
    Posts: 6446
    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 2:27 PM ET #24

    Quote Originally Posted by lockpicksMLB:

    Sup BoB, long time follower. Like the plays today brother
    I see potential value in the following:

    TOR +133
    NYY -133
    MIA -121
    MIL +105
    HOU +111

    any thoughts/insights you can provide would be much appreciated.
    BOL TODAY!


    Toronto: they are not playing good baseball right now. Not sure if Bautista will be back, so I would prob layoff. If they win this game, they will probably need to score 4+ runs (Boston offense has been good). If you feel that is likely, then I would take the TT over on 4 runs (-105).

    Yankees: I actually like Tampa in this game. Feels like a tossup game to me. Tampa is playing good baseball and Karnes kept it close vs. NYY last time they faced off.

    Miami: I considered playing this game. I think the line is about where it should be. Could be worth a shot at that price, but I would like it better inside of -115.

    Milwaukee: Marquis is a fade pitcher for me. Nice burst of offense from the Brewers yesterday (to blow my under by 1 run GRRR), but I am still concerned about their ability to score runs consistently. I would be reluctant to wager on them for a full game. I would be partial to F5. No way in heck I would take Cincy today.

    Houston: I like dogs with low run totals. Though I took the under, I strongly considered taking Houston when the line opened at +123. McHugh is a stud. This line is probably close to where it needs to be as well. Padres bullpen>houston bullpen, IMO... so I would prefer F5 w/ McHugh over full game. I like this one the most of what you posted.


    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by lockpicksMLB:

    Sup BoB, long time follower. Like the plays today brother
    I see potential value in the following:

    TOR +133
    NYY -133
    MIA -121
    MIL +105
    HOU +111

    any thoughts/insights you can provide would be much appreciated.
    BOL TODAY!


    Toronto: they are not playing good baseball right now. Not sure if Bautista will be back, so I would prob layoff. If they win this game, they will probably need to score 4+ runs (Boston offense has been good). If you feel that is likely, then I would take the TT over on 4 runs (-105).

    Yankees: I actually like Tampa in this game. Feels like a tossup game to me. Tampa is playing good baseball and Karnes kept it close vs. NYY last time they faced off.

    Miami: I considered playing this game. I think the line is about where it should be. Could be worth a shot at that price, but I would like it better inside of -115.

    Milwaukee: Marquis is a fade pitcher for me. Nice burst of offense from the Brewers yesterday (to blow my under by 1 run GRRR), but I am still concerned about their ability to score runs consistently. I would be reluctant to wager on them for a full game. I would be partial to F5. No way in heck I would take Cincy today.

    Houston: I like dogs with low run totals. Though I took the under, I strongly considered taking Houston when the line opened at +123. McHugh is a stud. This line is probably close to where it needs to be as well. Padres bullpen>houston bullpen, IMO... so I would prefer F5 w/ McHugh over full game. I like this one the most of what you posted.


     
     
    tinfoils
    tinfoils
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jun, 2002
    Posts: 66016
    Posted: Apr. 27, 2015 - 2:45 PM ET #25

    Good luck BOB!
    Reply
    Good luck BOB!
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