All or none of those things may have an influence, but to a much lesser degree as they are all peripheral in nature and you must have the core basics on your side before even considering those. Some highs and lows are quickly accounted for in the program because as I told Hog_Wild, stats have shelf life, newer stats must carry more weight and eventually the influence of any stat must disappear. Hitting slumps are accounted for very quickly, but streaks are a day-to-day thing.
Thanks for the response, those are just some of my key ingredients no pun intended when capping. Unfortunately there seems to be a lot of people on this forum that don't know what handicapping is all about .
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
All or none of those things may have an influence, but to a much lesser degree as they are all peripheral in nature and you must have the core basics on your side before even considering those. Some highs and lows are quickly accounted for in the program because as I told Hog_Wild, stats have shelf life, newer stats must carry more weight and eventually the influence of any stat must disappear. Hitting slumps are accounted for very quickly, but streaks are a day-to-day thing.
Thanks for the response, those are just some of my key ingredients no pun intended when capping. Unfortunately there seems to be a lot of people on this forum that don't know what handicapping is all about .
My question would be is what site do you use to find advanced statistics like a team versus left hand pitchers in the last 7 days? From looking at espn, yahoo, mlb.com, I can find multiple advanced statistics, but I have not found a site that lets me sort the splits like I want. I was wondering if you have a go-to site that you use.
My question would be is what site do you use to find advanced statistics like a team versus left hand pitchers in the last 7 days? From looking at espn, yahoo, mlb.com, I can find multiple advanced statistics, but I have not found a site that lets me sort the splits like I want. I was wondering if you have a go-to site that you use.
I am wondering how far back you go for stats? I used to mainly look at last few starts, last 10 games, etc. but when looking at sabermetrics if I remember correctly, a longer period of time was much more accurate, not talking years, but at least a few months. Also, do you account for daily lineup changes or injuries? Thanks for sharing, always interesting to see how others look at things, always check your threads.
I am wondering how far back you go for stats? I used to mainly look at last few starts, last 10 games, etc. but when looking at sabermetrics if I remember correctly, a longer period of time was much more accurate, not talking years, but at least a few months. Also, do you account for daily lineup changes or injuries? Thanks for sharing, always interesting to see how others look at things, always check your threads.
I still have to manually input daily, but what I want is available all over and I have set the program up so I can basically copy and paste, then run the computations almost automatically. There is about two hours of boring input, but after that it is only about an hour to decision time. Play, post, wait for the games.
Don't know what program you use, but if its excel, take a look into SMF_Addin. Has made my data pulls a piece of cake. I run my model in 15-20 minutes tops each day.
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
I still have to manually input daily, but what I want is available all over and I have set the program up so I can basically copy and paste, then run the computations almost automatically. There is about two hours of boring input, but after that it is only about an hour to decision time. Play, post, wait for the games.
Don't know what program you use, but if its excel, take a look into SMF_Addin. Has made my data pulls a piece of cake. I run my model in 15-20 minutes tops each day.
I am wondering how far back you go for stats? I used to mainly look at last few starts, last 10 games, etc. but when looking at sabermetrics if I remember correctly, a longer period of time was much more accurate, not talking years, but at least a few months. Also, do you account for daily lineup changes or injuries? Thanks for sharing, always interesting to see how others look at things, always check your threads.
Look into the concept of mean reversion. Majority of MLB insiders rely on long term averages due to the concept of mean reversion. Trailing averages as Key said can work, however, at some point, they will revert.
Quote Originally Posted by vegaspete:
I am wondering how far back you go for stats? I used to mainly look at last few starts, last 10 games, etc. but when looking at sabermetrics if I remember correctly, a longer period of time was much more accurate, not talking years, but at least a few months. Also, do you account for daily lineup changes or injuries? Thanks for sharing, always interesting to see how others look at things, always check your threads.
Look into the concept of mean reversion. Majority of MLB insiders rely on long term averages due to the concept of mean reversion. Trailing averages as Key said can work, however, at some point, they will revert.
Great read....but after doing so it makes me hate my full time blue collar job even more. I cap games on the back of customer invoices while on the job*insert caveman emoticon*
Couldn't agree more about strength of schedule Key, in all sports.
Thanks for sharing.
Great read....but after doing so it makes me hate my full time blue collar job even more. I cap games on the back of customer invoices while on the job*insert caveman emoticon*
Couldn't agree more about strength of schedule Key, in all sports.
*woosh*that's the sound of this going over the heads of everyone here at Covers.
Maybe your head, but I am fine. Try not to judge people you have no clue aboutThanks Key!
You are a little weasel WMI.. For real. Guy just made a statement some might not understand which from what Ive scene at covers is highly likely.. Keep doing what you do...you like to put your input everywhere...
Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:
Quote Originally Posted by MethSynth:
*woosh*that's the sound of this going over the heads of everyone here at Covers.
Maybe your head, but I am fine. Try not to judge people you have no clue aboutThanks Key!
You are a little weasel WMI.. For real. Guy just made a statement some might not understand which from what Ive scene at covers is highly likely.. Keep doing what you do...you like to put your input everywhere...
Speaking of variable factors, how do you account for:
streaks/momentum? Or is that even quantifiable? I know you can't measure something that doesn't have a number, but, I have to ask if there is even the smallest kernel..............
Whether..................the weather?
Lineups/injuries? Do you project the lineups before they are even posted, or have to wait like the rest of us?
Key,
Fabulous reading! Obviously, well thought out.
Speaking of variable factors, how do you account for:
streaks/momentum? Or is that even quantifiable? I know you can't measure something that doesn't have a number, but, I have to ask if there is even the smallest kernel..............
Whether..................the weather?
Lineups/injuries? Do you project the lineups before they are even posted, or have to wait like the rest of us?
..... but most folks are willing to accept overall win percentage as the quality of the team...
.... That type of power rating is absolutely useless on a daily basis...
..... my power ratings say Chris Sale is the best pitcher in MLB ...
.... So, what relationship does their overall win percentage or composite “power rating” have to do with today’s game?.. “absolutely nothing”
KE, thank you for your time explaining the reasoning behind your selection process, which seems to be producing very good results.
If I may, I'd like to add a few comments on the statements above.
The subject of what constitutes the best set of predictive stats is the holy grail of most human endeavors, handicapping is but small example.
Power rankings presented by the vast majority of news outlets are not very useful for identifying a prioryprobabilities of a baseball game on any given day, since they are compiled based on averaging of previous events.
They do, however, influence the line that market makers present to the public.
Most people who do sports trading (I mean putting their own money on the line, not touts) have their own systems for calculating probabilities, but knowing public ratings and their influence on the market makers lines is also important.
Speaking of systems (sets of stats and such).. Since everyone uses his own subsets of available stats and there is an underlying assumption that players perform at full capacity (unless one trades on "situation plays" or inside info), all probabilities could only be classified as subjective.
Again, thank you and good luck.
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
..... but most folks are willing to accept overall win percentage as the quality of the team...
.... That type of power rating is absolutely useless on a daily basis...
..... my power ratings say Chris Sale is the best pitcher in MLB ...
.... So, what relationship does their overall win percentage or composite “power rating” have to do with today’s game?.. “absolutely nothing”
KE, thank you for your time explaining the reasoning behind your selection process, which seems to be producing very good results.
If I may, I'd like to add a few comments on the statements above.
The subject of what constitutes the best set of predictive stats is the holy grail of most human endeavors, handicapping is but small example.
Power rankings presented by the vast majority of news outlets are not very useful for identifying a prioryprobabilities of a baseball game on any given day, since they are compiled based on averaging of previous events.
They do, however, influence the line that market makers present to the public.
Most people who do sports trading (I mean putting their own money on the line, not touts) have their own systems for calculating probabilities, but knowing public ratings and their influence on the market makers lines is also important.
Speaking of systems (sets of stats and such).. Since everyone uses his own subsets of available stats and there is an underlying assumption that players perform at full capacity (unless one trades on "situation plays" or inside info), all probabilities could only be classified as subjective.
The only thing you might want to add or subtract is momentum-teams winning or losing between 3 and 6 games are a factor and can lead to over or underachieving..sports is 80-90% mental-The Angels are playing great right now and even the Padres were and with this, stats can be over come or it can even make a better case...
Prime example of mental influence-Dustin Johnson in the 3rd round of the British Open shot 75 with tons of bogeys but on paper he is the best player in the world. Almost every other player shot tons of birdies that day. Mentally, he's the worst...
Thanks for all you do!
The only thing you might want to add or subtract is momentum-teams winning or losing between 3 and 6 games are a factor and can lead to over or underachieving..sports is 80-90% mental-The Angels are playing great right now and even the Padres were and with this, stats can be over come or it can even make a better case...
Prime example of mental influence-Dustin Johnson in the 3rd round of the British Open shot 75 with tons of bogeys but on paper he is the best player in the world. Almost every other player shot tons of birdies that day. Mentally, he's the worst...
Got a NEW stat for you.."ROGK" (Return On Good Karma)...yours is gonna be through the ROOF for not just all the hard work & time you put into sharing your knowledge & plays? But more, for doing so despite all the BULLS%*T that goes on here. But I guess that's what makes all this FUN!!!...ROCK ON BROTHA!!!
Got a NEW stat for you.."ROGK" (Return On Good Karma)...yours is gonna be through the ROOF for not just all the hard work & time you put into sharing your knowledge & plays? But more, for doing so despite all the BULLS%*T that goes on here. But I guess that's what makes all this FUN!!!...ROCK ON BROTHA!!!
Besides, I'd rather deal with the BULLS%*T here than the AZZ CLOWN touts that wanna charge you 30% for a coin toss & claim their in VEGAS gambling, when they're really in they're mom's garage trying to find a flat surface for the coin to land on..LMFAO!!
Besides, I'd rather deal with the BULLS%*T here than the AZZ CLOWN touts that wanna charge you 30% for a coin toss & claim their in VEGAS gambling, when they're really in they're mom's garage trying to find a flat surface for the coin to land on..LMFAO!!
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