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Ask yourself why the Yankees are only -135

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Legend
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Posted: #26
what kind of gifts are the books giving?
 
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Posted: #27
JRock-I have to judge him on his entire body of work.  Not just his home starts.  I understand for capping purposes you're looking at his home stats.  Lots of people do that.  I just don't take home/away, day/night stuff into account.  That's just me.  Not saying I'm right or wrong.  He got tagged for 5 in 5 in his other start against the Sox this season at Fenway.  He has also allowed 9 homers in his last 6 starts. Best of luck.  Home the Yanks win 10-0 and we both win
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by glenndef62:

Franklin Morales pitching well on rd. Might be why the line is small.......

I agree, over the course of the season he's been excellent on the road. His last start in Cleveland was not too good.  108 pitches and 4 walks in 5 1/3. Hoping he has his good stuff tonight.
 
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Posted: #29

Franklin's last 2 on rd...

10 1/3 inns

4 hits !!

3 runs

7 bbs

11 Ks

 
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Posted: #30
Locks - I hear ya man.  Everybody has their own style of capping.  I don't blame ya one bit for taking his full slate into account. Doing that then hell yeah, he's a mess.  Adding in his road numbers dude's a gas can.  I'm sticking with the Sox ML tonight, but I wish ya the best of luck on the over.  Personally I stay away from totals until I know who's umping behind the plate.  Once MLB announces the crew, I go back and cap totals more in depth.  Good luck to ya!

 
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Posted: #31
how about the fact that boston plays well in NY and took the series last go around?  I agree i think the line is beggin yankees money and i think boston is the play, i agree with your original analysis
 
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Posted: #32
Those are his last 2 starts.  But if you add in the time he was coming out of the pen, then you add the 2 scoreless innings at the Yanks, but also the 2 innings he got roughed up in Texas.

And the first of those 2 road starts came back on July 13th against a Tampa team that barely hits over .200 at home against lefties, so I don't know how much stock I can put into that when capping tonight's game


 
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Posted: #33
Cano in. Tex out.  Jeter DH. Nicks at short.  Swisher at 1st.
 
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Posted: #34
also this matchup seams to be one of which the away team wins mostly... it works out like that with certain scenarios i've noticed, the away team tends to win alot in this matchup
 
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Posted: #35
fresh 
 
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KktdocT - I was saying the books don't ever give gifts.  And I truly believe that.  If this line is accurate so be it, then I capped this one completely wrong.  I just believe that the Yanks should have opened in the -150 to -160 area tonight.  So I'm putting my money on the Sox. 

Some dude earlier was saying the books do give gifts and I must be new for not knowing that.  All I know is I've been gambling for well over 9 years and I'm yet to receive a "gift"

 
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Posted: #37

interesting discussion jrock, just looked for the ump and I see Paul Emmel is behind the vest tonight, and looking further, I was stunned to see he is 21-1, yes, that's correct, 21-1 to the over this season.

He averages 11.59 runs per game, last year his O/U when behind the plate was 10-14, maybe his eyes got bad and his strike zone is now the size of a pea.

Anyhow, good luck on your plays.

 

 
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Posted: #38

Update...this just in.....

Franklin's last 4 rd stats:

22 1/3 inns

11 hits

5 runs !!

9 bbs

27 Ks !!!

I think I know why the line is low.   GL, my man !!!.........

 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by boombaladi:

interesting discussion jrock, just looked for the ump and I see Paul Emmel is behind the vest tonight, and looking further, I was stunned to see he is 21-1, yes, that's correct, 21-1 to the over this season.

He averages 11.59 runs per game, last year his O/U when behind the plate was 10-14, maybe his eyes got bad and his strike zone is now the size of a pea.

Anyhow, good luck on your plays.

 


Holy shit!!!!  21-1 for the over!  Unreal!!!!!!!! Thanks for the update man.  

Over/Under on time of game:

Over 5 hours (-675)

Under 5 hours (+615)

 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by jrock88:

KktdocT - I was saying the books don't ever give gifts.  And I truly believe that.  If this line is accurate so be it, then I capped this one completely wrong.  I just believe that the Yanks should have opened in the -150 to -160 area tonight.  So I'm putting my money on the Sox. 

Some dude earlier was saying the books do give gifts and I must be new for not knowing that.  All I know is I've been gambling for well over 9 years and I'm yet to receive a "gift"



You don't have to use the word gift, but there are games every day vegas expects to pay the public on.  It's like blackjack...the player will win 49% of the hands.  The casino expects to pay the player on those hands.  You don't say it's a gift I guess.

But believe me vegas knows they're paying the public on some games tonight and they know they're raking from the public on others.  And they have a better idea of which games those are then we do.
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by glenndef62:

Update...this just in.....

Franklin's last 4 rd stats:

22 1/3 inns

11 hits

5 runs !!

9 bbs

27 Ks !!!

I think I know why the line is low.   GL, my man !!!.........


I like it. Lets hope he keeps it up tonight.  I know he has a 1.80 ERA away from Fenway this year.  He's been very good, he just wasn't great his last time out.   108 pitches in just over 5 innings......and if he's wild again tonight, with an ump that has called the game for the over 95% of the time, it's gonna be a bullpen type of night.  I hope the Sox get it done.  Thanks buddy!

 
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Posted: #42
Morales is certainly not terrible.  Hughes can be as volatile as anyone. And I don't care if it's home or road, he's been lousy his last two.  It's Boston/NY. If they had NYY at -160, I'd hammer the Red Sox (and I'm not betting baseball this year).  

I kind of like the over a bit.  
 
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Posted: #43
Over/Under on time of game:

Over 5 hours (-675)

Under 5 hours (+615)
 
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:



You don't have to use the word gift, but there are games every day vegas expects to pay the public on.  It's like blackjack...the player will win 49% of the hands.  The casino expects to pay the player on those hands.  You don't say it's a gift I guess.

But believe me vegas knows they're paying the public on some games tonight and they know they're raking from the public on others.  And they have a better idea of which games those are then we do.

I completely agree with you.  However, wouldn't you say that on the games Vegas expects to pay the public, the lines reflect that? Meaning, Verlander is laying -275 against the team currently in the lead for the AL Wild Card.  Miley and a .500 Arizona team is laying -183 on the road.  A mediocre Bronson Arroyo is laying -194. These are games where Vegas clearly expects to pay the public, as the line suggests, but when is the last time the Yankees laid -135 or less at home against a sub .500 team when the opposing pitcher was not named Felix Hernandez?

 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:

Morales is certainly not terrible.  Hughes can be as volatile as anyone. And I don't care if it's home or road, he's been lousy his last two.  It's Boston/NY. If they had NYY at -160, I'd hammer the Red Sox (and I'm not betting baseball this year).  

I kind of like the over a bit.  

Yeah I'm starting to agree that's the right play here, especially with Emmel  behind the dish.

Thanks man

 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by jrock88:


I completely agree with you.  However, wouldn't you say that on the games Vegas expects to pay the public, the lines reflect that? Meaning, Verlander is laying -275 against the team currently in the lead for the AL Wild Card.  Miley and a .500 Arizona team is laying -183 on the road.  A mediocre Bronson Arroyo is laying -194. These are games where Vegas clearly expects to pay the public, as the line suggests, but when is the last time the Yankees laid -135 or less at home against a sub .500 team when the opposing pitcher was not named Felix Hernandez?



I think the line makers are sophisticated and know gambler psychology very very well.  Sometimes they know the only defense they have to minimize payouts are to put up huge lines and hope for the best.  I think they know they're hosed on the Arizona and Detroit games tonight, and the white flag is apparent with the huge juice. 

I think other times they'll make the line low on purpose to give the illusion of equality between two teams.  A lot of us are thinking, "if vegas doesn't think the Yankees should be a huge favorite, should WE?"  Value shoppers are probably pounding the Yankees while the rest of us are nervous as to why the line is low.

Other times I think they put a -200 line on a team to make us believe they're that much better only to end up raping the people that bet on that team.  They play mind tricks on the public.  It's all part of the game
 
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Posted: #47
Or maybe I'm over thinking it and the Red Sox actually have a shot at this game?  I don't think so but I'm wrong plenty
 
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Posted: #48
Interesting.  Good food for thought.  Appreciate it man

 
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Posted: #49
Meaning, Verlander is laying -275 against the team currently in the lead for the AL Wild Card.  
___________

Against a guy that hasn't won in a month.  Detroit very good at home. Verlander v. Hughes isn't even funny.  Not to mention the rivalry with Boston NY has.  Zoolander also neutered the Rangers last time out.  

You have to pay for elite, elite pitchers because the books know they are going to win a lot of the time.  Simple math.  Phil Hughes is a .500 pitcher.  
 
 
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Posted: #50
Other times I think they put a -200 line on a team to make us believe they're that much better only to end up raping the people that bet on that team. 
__________

If you let them MAKE you think that way, then you're too weak-minded.


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