Posted:
#1
Sure they look great on paper. They're 12.5 games ahead of Boston. They play .617 ball at home. Hughes is 8-3, 3.74 at home, compared to 3-7, 5.31 away. His last 8 starts at home have been quality starts. The Yanks put up 5.34 runs per game at home and have won 7 of their last 10.
Boston comes in with this whole media storm about the players wanting Valentine out. They barely avoided a sweep in Baltimore. They've lost 6 of their last 10. Morales' last start against the Yankees lasted 3 1/3 and saw him allow 6 ER on 8 base runners, 4 HR's!!!!! He's had a WHIP of 1 or higher in his last 6 appearances.
The stats are completely one-sided here. The Yanks are obviously the play, aren't they?
Not so fast. As we always say, the books don't hand out free money. First, ask yourself why the Yankees are only a -135 favorite, when this game has -160 written all over it. Then, ask yourself why 78% of the betting public is on the Yankees and the line hasn't moved?
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