Posted:
#1126
@Betlogs12
Detroit and KC
Anyone Tracking Scoring Drought System?
Posted:
#1129
@kidd22
I am only following because i found the system. i am tracking any system i can find. The one witht he most succes right now is :
The idea: When a team keeps getting runners on base but can't drive them in (8+ runners stranded per game over the last week), that's bad luck, not bad hitting. They're making contact, they're getting on base — the hits just aren't falling with runners in scoring position. That luck runs out. When it does, the runs come in bunches.
Bet the unlucky team when they're the underdog.
Record: 37W-32L (53.6%) · P&L: +$1,310 · ROI: +19.0% · Avg odds: +94
The edge is almost entirely on the away underdog side — 22W-14L, +$1,197. Home picks are basically break-even. This strategy finds road dogs that the market has underpriced because their recent run production looks worse than their underlying hitting quality.
The idea: Similar to S32 but measures it differently. Strand rate is the percentage of baserunners a team leaves on base. The league average is around 72%. When a team's strand rate spikes above 78-80% over a week, their offense looks dead — but the batters are actually performing fine. They're just unlucky with sequencing. A single with nobody on is a wasted hit. The same single with a runner on second is an RBI. When the sequencing normalizes, the offense explodes.
Bet the team with the abnormally high strand rate as an underdog.
Record: 20W-16L (55.6%) · P&L: +$815 · ROI: +22.6% · Avg odds: +114
Same pattern — the money is on away underdogs: 12W-5L, +$845. The best ROI of any strategy in the system at 22.6%.
S32 and S62 overlap on 35 games. Both strategies are measuring the same thing from different angles — an offense that's performing better than its results show. When both flag the same team, the regression signal is strong. Backtested at 55.6% win rate, +$812.
Bottom line: these two strategies find teams whose offense looks worse than it actually is. The market prices them based on recent results. The strategies price them based on underlying quality. The gap between the two is where the money is — and it's almost always on the dog side.
I am sure they will both even out as the year goes on.
Posted:
#1131
Quote Originally Posted by kidd22:
First official play of the season 0-1 -180 my system play seatle winner 3-2 +5 units
First official play of the season 0-1 -180 my system play seatle winner 3-2 +5 units
Quote Originally Posted by kidd22:
Will have 2nd official play of the year tomorrow Miamia +170 right now Detroit Skubal -200 as of right now and waiting on white Sox line
2 official plays yesterday with a split 1-1 overall 1-2 official plays -240
Will have 2nd official play of the year tomorrow Miamia +170 right now Detroit Skubal -200 as of right now and waiting on white Sox line
my system plays so far 3-2 +5
today Miami +130 qualifies for my system play
so I’m on Atlanta -150 today
Bol everyone
Posted:
#1139
@kidd22
The system fires: NYM lost their last 2 games scoring 0 and 0 runs. LAD is the home favorite at -207. All three conditions met.
Here's the full picture before you decide:
The case FOR (system logic): NYM has been shut out twice in a row — 0 runs in 2 straight games. That's an extreme offensive drought. Offenses this cold tend to break out. At +169 you're getting nearly 2:1 on a team that statistically is due. The system is specifically designed for this setup.
The case AGAINST (red flags):
NYM is on a 5-game losing streak — the drought didn't start 2 games ago, it's been building for a week. Their starter today (ERA 2.70, WHIP 0.84, K9 10.8, FRONTRUNNER) is actually the best argument for them — genuinely good pitcher. But their last 5 starters gave up 4, 1, 7, 1, 2 ER — the pitching isn't the problem, the offense is completely dead.
LAD's starter has ERA 2.50, WHIP 0.89 — a real pitcher going against an offense that hasn't scored in 48 innings. LAD's power rating is 2.438, the best on today's board. NYM's is -0.412.
The series context works against NYM too — LAD won game 1 and NYM is now in a must-win spot in game 2, which creates desperation but also pressure.
Bottom line: The system fires, the logic is sound — droughts break. But this is the weakest version of the trigger because the drought is this deep. At +169 the value is real. If you play it, treat it as a half unit sprinkle, not a full bet. The system was designed for 2-game droughts, not 5-game collapses.
Posted:
#1140
Quote Originally Posted by crshrsh:
@kidd22 The system fires: NYM lost their last 2 games scoring 0 and 0 runs. LAD is the home favorite at -207. All three conditions met. Here's the full picture before you decide: The case FOR (system logic): NYM has been shut out twice in a row — 0 runs in 2 straight games. That's an extreme offensive drought. Offenses this cold tend to break out. At +169 you're getting nearly 2:1 on a team that statistically is due. The system is specifically designed for this setup. The case AGAINST (red flags): NYM is on a 5-game losing streak — the drought didn't start 2 games ago, it's been building for a week. Their starter today (ERA 2.70, WHIP 0.84, K9 10.8, FRONTRUNNER) is actually the best argument for them — genuinely good pitcher. But their last 5 starters gave up 4, 1, 7, 1, 2 ER — the pitching isn't the problem, the offense is completely dead. LAD's starter has ERA 2.50, WHIP 0.89 — a real pitcher going against an offense that hasn't scored in 48 innings. LAD's power rating is 2.438, the best on today's board. NYM's is -0.412. The series context works against NYM too — LAD won game 1 and NYM is now in a must-win spot in game 2, which creates desperation but also pressure. Bottom line: The system fires, the logic is sound — droughts break. But this is the weakest version of the trigger because the drought is this deep. At +169 the value is real. If you play it, treat it as a half unit sprinkle, not a full bet. The system was designed for 2-game droughts, not 5-game collapses.
@kidd22 The system fires: NYM lost their last 2 games scoring 0 and 0 runs. LAD is the home favorite at -207. All three conditions met. Here's the full picture before you decide: The case FOR (system logic): NYM has been shut out twice in a row — 0 runs in 2 straight games. That's an extreme offensive drought. Offenses this cold tend to break out. At +169 you're getting nearly 2:1 on a team that statistically is due. The system is specifically designed for this setup. The case AGAINST (red flags): NYM is on a 5-game losing streak — the drought didn't start 2 games ago, it's been building for a week. Their starter today (ERA 2.70, WHIP 0.84, K9 10.8, FRONTRUNNER) is actually the best argument for them — genuinely good pitcher. But their last 5 starters gave up 4, 1, 7, 1, 2 ER — the pitching isn't the problem, the offense is completely dead. LAD's starter has ERA 2.50, WHIP 0.89 — a real pitcher going against an offense that hasn't scored in 48 innings. LAD's power rating is 2.438, the best on today's board. NYM's is -0.412. The series context works against NYM too — LAD won game 1 and NYM is now in a must-win spot in game 2, which creates desperation but also pressure. Bottom line: The system fires, the logic is sound — droughts break. But this is the weakest version of the trigger because the drought is this deep. At +169 the value is real. If you play it, treat it as a half unit sprinkle, not a full bet. The system was designed for 2-game droughts, not 5-game collapses.
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