Posted:
#1101
Redlegs
book itttt.
Anyone Tracking Scoring Drought System?
Posted:
#1102
Posted by kidd22 ........... I believe we got an official play tomorrow and it’s against my halos as of now halos +160 3:45 pacific time Also Houston +120 6:40 pacific time both early lines will be tracking line movement also add… last year when we had 2 plays in one day 1 would always win most of the time that’s happened with my close plays this year just a thought to be continued…
goldfinger 1964
Posted:
#1118
Miami Marlins +173 at Detroit Tigers -194 — Marlins scored 0 runs in each of their last 2 road games. Tigers at -194. That's well past the -150 threshold. S48 fires. Bet Tigers.
Chicago White Sox +154 at Kansas City Royals -184 — White Sox scored 0 and 2 runs in their last 2 road games. Royals at -184. S48 fires. Bet Royals.
The other cold road teams aren't playing away tomorrow:
Royals — they're the HOME team (vs White Sox). S48 only fades the cold ROAD team.
Brewers — they're the HOME team (vs Nationals). Same thing.
Phillies — they're the HOME team (vs Diamondbacks). Same thing.
Mariners — they're the HOME team (vs Astros). Same thing.
All four cold teams happen to be home tomorrow, so S48 can't fire on them. Only the Marlins and White Sox are on the road, and both trigger.
Posted:
#1120
Game 1: Miami Marlins +173 at Detroit Tigers -194
Pythagorean says: Marlins are better. Miami has a .542 expected W% vs Detroit's .530. Marlins have a +0.40 RD/G vs Tigers +0.27. The market is pricing Detroit as a big favorite but Pythagorean thinks they're nearly equal.
Performance Rating says: Marlins clearly. Miami scores 64.2 composite vs Detroit's 32.5. Marlins are better at pitching (51.9 vs 31.2), offense (48.4 vs 38.8), and bullpen (100.0 vs 87.9 — Miami's bullpen is the best in baseball by this metric). Detroit only wins on defense (45.4 vs 20.8).
Market says: Tigers. Detroit's market implied win% is 55.6% vs Miami's 48.0%. The market is pricing Detroit as a solid home favorite. Market Elo has Tigers at 1446 and Marlins at 1495 — which actually favors the Marlins slightly.
Luck says: Tigers are UNLUCKY. Detroit's luck score is -1.96 — they should have more wins than they do (5-9 record vs .530 Pythagorean). Miami is neutral at -0.13.
Batting says: Marlins are better. Miami .725 OPS vs Detroit .676 OPS. Marlins hit .252 vs Tigers .233. Miami has lower K% (19.9% vs 23.7%) and better wOBA (.307 vs .292).
Recent form: Both cold. Tigers WWL last 3. Marlins LLW last 3. Both teams 17-19 RS vs RA over last 5.
S48 trigger: YES. Marlins scored 0 runs in each of their last 2 road games. Tigers -194 exceeds the -150 threshold. S48 fires on Detroit.
Bottom line: This is conflicting. Performance and Pythagorean say the Marlins are the better team being overpriced at +173. But S48 says fade the cold road offense. The market heavily favors Detroit at home. At +173, there's value on Miami if you trust performance ratings. At -194, Detroit is expensive but backed by S48 and home field.
Posted:
#1121
Game 2: Chicago White Sox +154 at Kansas City Royals -184
Pythagorean says: Dead even. Both teams have similar expected W% (Sox aren't in the data range shown but their actual record is 5-9). Royals are 6-8.
Performance Rating says: Royals clearly. KC scores higher across the board. The White Sox are the second-worst team in the performance composite (1.0 out of 100). Their offense is the worst in baseball (.581 OPS, .196 AVG).
Market says: Royals. KC is -184, implying roughly 64% win probability. The market views this as a clear mismatch.
Batting says: Royals significantly better. KC .671 OPS vs Chicago .580 OPS. Royals hit .228 vs Sox .196. White Sox have the highest K% in baseball at 28.6%.
Recent form: Both mixed. Royals WWL last 3. Sox LLW last 3.
S48 trigger: YES. White Sox scored 0 and 2 runs in their last 2 road games. Royals -184 exceeds the -150 threshold. S48 fires on KC.
Bottom line: Every system agrees — Royals. Performance, market, batting stats, and S48 all point the same way. The White Sox are the worst offensive team in baseball on the road after scoring 0 and 2 runs. The only question is whether -184 is too expensive. The Royals yesterday won this same matchup and were -185. This is the strongest conviction game of the two.
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