Anyone Tracking Scoring Drought System?

june 20 checking in...   

there was even my system play yesterday and it lost I didn’t play but drought teams are winning more profit fading 

@PUSSYGALORE333

 More profit fading plays go with the drought teams this. Year overall period my system plays or official plays even just a team on a drought and is even money been seeing them all win more than not just my observation 

Anyone who has not seen in soccer forum 

LAgameofinches is tearing it up in fifa go take a look win some money,baseball is tuff for me im mostly tailing hot cappers 

Bol everyone 

Ok we got 1 

Tampa -195 Arizona +165 I like Tampa here 

also got another on a drought royals +115 not a play tho but stil on a drought not touching that one although wsox playing well  

so tail or fade 

Bol everyone 

7-6 -400 official plays 

My drought system plays had 1 yesterday but I didn’t post cause they have not been hitting but yesterday did it was the cubbies if my plays get on s streak I’ll post but if not I’ll keep the looking for official plays 

Bol everyone can’t wait for football and college bball 

Brew crew should be an official play tomorrow Mis on the mound for brewers 

7-7 -600 official plays 

fade plays now lol 

Ill still post if I see a play 

Havent bet this system in forever. Too much juice

@smellybunty

 There hasn’t been that many games this year unlike last year I stopped keeping track well I was if I saw a run of wins but there hasn’t been there’s been teams on droughts  but juice never high enough this year even for my close plays but I think it’s 8-8 this year with big juice lost 

@kidd22

 Reds is close play...

i have seen serval different systems on this can someone tell me exactly what it is and i will run the test and setup fires for future picks

Fade the home team (bet the visitor)

Home team just returned from a road trip where they scored =2 runs in each of their last 2 away games.

Fade the home team (bet the visitor)

Home team just returned from a road trip where they scored =2 runs in each of their last 2 away games.

RESULTS (2026 season):

All qualifying games: 33 games, visitors went 17-16 (51.5%), +6.7% ROI, avg visitor odds +125

When the visitor is a dog: 20 games, visitors went 10-10 (50.0%), +15.2% ROI, avg visitor odds +132

Direction check — backing the home team instead: 33 games, home went 16-17 (48.5%), -7.6% ROI. Confirms the fade is the right side.

WHAT IT MEANS:

A home team coming off a cold road trip wins only 48.5% at home — below the ~54% home teams usually win. The market gives them the standard home-field bump and probably prices in a "bounce-back at home" narrative, but they underperform it.

The sweet spot is when the visitor is a dog (+15.2% ROI): you're getting plus-money (+132 avg) on a team that still wins half the time, because the cold home team is favored despite being cold.

@crshrsh

 The 2 games lost by the drought team  of 2 runs or less can be at home as well 

is it loss by 2 runs or less or only scored 2 runs or less. sorry for the confusion but it matter. 

@crshrsh

 From page 1:

Fade teams on the road off back to back losses scoring 2 or less with a line over -150 for the home team

It's a close play tonight fading Cleveland with Reds ML

Not only that the drought team must be a dog of at or higher than +150 and must be on the road 

@crshrsh

 Read page 1 it explains it better 

What The Data Says: 

Fade the Cold, Returning-Home Favorite

The system. Fade the home team (bet the visitor) when the home team is coming off a two-game road trip in which they
lost both games and scored two runs or fewer in each, and are now favored by -150 or more. Tested on the 2026 season
through July 24, using BetOnline closing moneylines at a flat $100 per game, and broken out by how big a favorite the
home team is.

What it produced. The full trigger fired on just 15 games all season where the home team was any kind of favorite.
Fading across all of them went 8-7 for the visitor — a 53.3% hit rate that, because the visitors averaged +133,
returned +$370, or +24.7% ROI.

Splitting by favorite price is where the eye-catching number lives. In the mild-favorite range of -100 to -149 (9
games), the fade actually lost: visitors went 4-5, a 44.4% clip, for -6.3% ROI. But in the -150 to -199 bucket — the
exact "favored by -150" spot — the visitors went 4-2, a 66.7% hit rate at an average of +158, producing +$427 and a
+71.2% ROI. There were zero qualifying games at -200 or shorter, so the -150-to--199 bucket and the "all -150 or
bigger" cut are the same six games.

Why the +71% isn't real. That headline number rests on six games. At +158, a visitor only needs to win about 38.8% of
the time to break even, and these won 66.7% — but across six games that gap is indistinguishable from luck. A fairly
priced +158 dog goes 4-2 or better by pure chance roughly 16% of the time, about one in six. The confidence interval
around a 4-2 record runs from roughly a 22% to a 96% win rate, which is another way of saying the sample tells you
almost nothing. The nine-game mild-favorite bucket sitting at -6.3% is the tell: the same underlying idea, priced
slightly differently, produced a loss.

The bottom line. The trigger stacks so many conditions — two road games, both losses, both with two runs or fewer, and
a -150 home price — that only 15 games in an entire season survive it, and once you bucket by price you're down to
six. Every time we tightened the filter tonight the ROI looked better and the sample got smaller, which is precisely
how a backtest manufactures an edge that isn't there. On a single season this can't be separated from noise, and
there's no statistical fix short of pooling multiple years of data. Treat it as an untested hunch, not a system.

WOW THANKS GUYS           

i dont think there is enough data but it is something. i should have it flaged on the system now as a watch. if y'all have any other strategies let me know i am always willing to test things out