Quote Originally Posted by kidd22: Quote Originally Posted by kidd22: official play tomorrow Dodgers -200 halos +170 6-4 -100 official plays dodgers with the L 6-5 -300 official plays my line last night was -200 I know it went up today so going on my line yanks official play -200 cincy +170 tale or fade Bol everyone baseball has been tuff for me this year
6-6 -500 these plays are fade material this year
there was even my system play yesterday and it lost I didn’t play but drought teams are winning more profit fading
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Quote Originally Posted by kidd22:
Quote Originally Posted by kidd22: Quote Originally Posted by kidd22: official play tomorrow Dodgers -200 halos +170 6-4 -100 official plays dodgers with the L 6-5 -300 official plays my line last night was -200 I know it went up today so going on my line yanks official play -200 cincy +170 tale or fade Bol everyone baseball has been tuff for me this year
6-6 -500 these plays are fade material this year
there was even my system play yesterday and it lost I didn’t play but drought teams are winning more profit fading
More profit fading plays go with the drought teams this. Year overall period my system plays or official plays even just a team on a drought and is even money been seeing them all win more than not just my observation
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@PUSSYGALORE333
More profit fading plays go with the drought teams this. Year overall period my system plays or official plays even just a team on a drought and is even money been seeing them all win more than not just my observation
My drought system plays had 1 yesterday but I didn’t post cause they have not been hitting but yesterday did it was the cubbies if my plays get on s streak I’ll post but if not I’ll keep the looking for official plays
Bol everyone can’t wait for football and college bball
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My drought system plays had 1 yesterday but I didn’t post cause they have not been hitting but yesterday did it was the cubbies if my plays get on s streak I’ll post but if not I’ll keep the looking for official plays
Bol everyone can’t wait for football and college bball
There hasn’t been that many games this year unlike last year I stopped keeping track well I was if I saw a run of wins but there hasn’t been there’s been teams on droughts but juice never high enough this year even for my close plays but I think it’s 8-8 this year with big juice lost
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@smellybunty
There hasn’t been that many games this year unlike last year I stopped keeping track well I was if I saw a run of wins but there hasn’t been there’s been teams on droughts but juice never high enough this year even for my close plays but I think it’s 8-8 this year with big juice lost
Home team just returned from a road trip where they scored =2 runs in each of their last 2 away games.
RESULTS (2026 season):
All qualifying games: 33 games, visitors went 17-16 (51.5%), +6.7% ROI, avg visitor odds +125
When the visitor is a dog: 20 games, visitors went 10-10 (50.0%), +15.2% ROI, avg visitor odds +132
Direction check — backing the home team instead: 33 games, home went 16-17 (48.5%), -7.6% ROI. Confirms the fade is the right side.
WHAT IT MEANS:
A home team coming off a cold road trip wins only 48.5% at home — below the ~54% home teams usually win. The market gives them the standard home-field bump and probably prices in a "bounce-back at home" narrative, but they underperform it.
The sweet spot is when the visitor is a dog (+15.2% ROI): you're getting plus-money (+132 avg) on a team that still wins half the time, because the cold home team is favored despite being cold.
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Fade the home team (bet the visitor)
Home team just returned from a road trip where they scored =2 runs in each of their last 2 away games.
RESULTS (2026 season):
All qualifying games: 33 games, visitors went 17-16 (51.5%), +6.7% ROI, avg visitor odds +125
When the visitor is a dog: 20 games, visitors went 10-10 (50.0%), +15.2% ROI, avg visitor odds +132
Direction check — backing the home team instead: 33 games, home went 16-17 (48.5%), -7.6% ROI. Confirms the fade is the right side.
WHAT IT MEANS:
A home team coming off a cold road trip wins only 48.5% at home — below the ~54% home teams usually win. The market gives them the standard home-field bump and probably prices in a "bounce-back at home" narrative, but they underperform it.
The sweet spot is when the visitor is a dog (+15.2% ROI): you're getting plus-money (+132 avg) on a team that still wins half the time, because the cold home team is favored despite being cold.
The system. Fade the home team (bet the visitor) when the home team is coming off a two-game road trip in which they lost both games and scored two runs or fewer in each, and are now favored by -150 or more. Tested on the 2026 season through July 24, using BetOnline closing moneylines at a flat $100 per game, and broken out by how big a favorite the home team is.
What it produced. The full trigger fired on just 15 games all season where the home team was any kind of favorite. Fading across all of them went 8-7 for the visitor — a 53.3% hit rate that, because the visitors averaged +133, returned +$370, or +24.7% ROI.
Splitting by favorite price is where the eye-catching number lives. In the mild-favorite range of -100 to -149 (9 games), the fade actually lost: visitors went 4-5, a 44.4% clip, for -6.3% ROI. But in the -150 to -199 bucket — the exact "favored by -150" spot — the visitors went 4-2, a 66.7% hit rate at an average of +158, producing +$427 and a +71.2% ROI. There were zero qualifying games at -200 or shorter, so the -150-to--199 bucket and the "all -150 or bigger" cut are the same six games.
Why the +71% isn't real. That headline number rests on six games. At +158, a visitor only needs to win about 38.8% of the time to break even, and these won 66.7% — but across six games that gap is indistinguishable from luck. A fairly priced +158 dog goes 4-2 or better by pure chance roughly 16% of the time, about one in six. The confidence interval around a 4-2 record runs from roughly a 22% to a 96% win rate, which is another way of saying the sample tells you almost nothing. The nine-game mild-favorite bucket sitting at -6.3% is the tell: the same underlying idea, priced slightly differently, produced a loss.
The bottom line. The trigger stacks so many conditions — two road games, both losses, both with two runs or fewer, and a -150 home price — that only 15 games in an entire season survive it, and once you bucket by price you're down to six. Every time we tightened the filter tonight the ROI looked better and the sample got smaller, which is precisely how a backtest manufactures an edge that isn't there. On a single season this can't be separated from noise, and there's no statistical fix short of pooling multiple years of data. Treat it as an untested hunch, not a system.
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What The Data Says:
Fade the Cold, Returning-Home Favorite
The system. Fade the home team (bet the visitor) when the home team is coming off a two-game road trip in which they lost both games and scored two runs or fewer in each, and are now favored by -150 or more. Tested on the 2026 season through July 24, using BetOnline closing moneylines at a flat $100 per game, and broken out by how big a favorite the home team is.
What it produced. The full trigger fired on just 15 games all season where the home team was any kind of favorite. Fading across all of them went 8-7 for the visitor — a 53.3% hit rate that, because the visitors averaged +133, returned +$370, or +24.7% ROI.
Splitting by favorite price is where the eye-catching number lives. In the mild-favorite range of -100 to -149 (9 games), the fade actually lost: visitors went 4-5, a 44.4% clip, for -6.3% ROI. But in the -150 to -199 bucket — the exact "favored by -150" spot — the visitors went 4-2, a 66.7% hit rate at an average of +158, producing +$427 and a +71.2% ROI. There were zero qualifying games at -200 or shorter, so the -150-to--199 bucket and the "all -150 or bigger" cut are the same six games.
Why the +71% isn't real. That headline number rests on six games. At +158, a visitor only needs to win about 38.8% of the time to break even, and these won 66.7% — but across six games that gap is indistinguishable from luck. A fairly priced +158 dog goes 4-2 or better by pure chance roughly 16% of the time, about one in six. The confidence interval around a 4-2 record runs from roughly a 22% to a 96% win rate, which is another way of saying the sample tells you almost nothing. The nine-game mild-favorite bucket sitting at -6.3% is the tell: the same underlying idea, priced slightly differently, produced a loss.
The bottom line. The trigger stacks so many conditions — two road games, both losses, both with two runs or fewer, and a -150 home price — that only 15 games in an entire season survive it, and once you bucket by price you're down to six. Every time we tightened the filter tonight the ROI looked better and the sample got smaller, which is precisely how a backtest manufactures an edge that isn't there. On a single season this can't be separated from noise, and there's no statistical fix short of pooling multiple years of data. Treat it as an untested hunch, not a system.
i dont think there is enough data but it is something. i should have it flaged on the system now as a watch. if y'all have any other strategies let me know i am always willing to test things out
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i dont think there is enough data but it is something. i should have it flaged on the system now as a watch. if y'all have any other strategies let me know i am always willing to test things out
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