Last Picks: Brewers ML -245 and Athletics ML -200 cashed. Dodgers ML -152 lost.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-162), 1u to win +0.62u
Model: Brewers show the strongest edge on the card, with a 72.2% win probability vs a 60.5% market price.
Pitching: Milwaukee profiles as the cleaner side again. The model is giving the Brewers a major probability gap, which usually means starter plus bullpen setup is carrying the play.
Market: -162 is still playable compared to the model number. This is the best value gap of the three at +11.7%.
Context: Milwaukee has been the more trustworthy side in this matchup, and the price is much more reasonable than yesterday’s -245.
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants Pick: Chicago Cubs ML (-122), 1u to win +0.82u
Model: Cubs are priced around 51.5% by the market, but the model has them at 64.4%. That is a strong +12.9% edge.
Pitching: The model is clearly separating Chicago from San Francisco here, and at near pick’em pricing, that is the type of spot worth playing.
Market: -122 is reasonable for a side the model grades closer to a mid-60s win probability.
Context: This is the best price-to-edge play on the card.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels Pick: Los Angeles Angels ML (-104), 1u to win +0.96u
Model: This one is much thinner. Angels are sitting right around 49.5%, basically in line with market.
Pitching: No major model edge here, so this is more of a small directional lean than a true value play.
Market: -104 is close to a coin flip price. I would keep this lighter confidence compared to Brewers and Cubs.
Context: Angels are the agent pick, but the edge column is flat, so this is the riskiest of the three.
Plays: Brewers ML -162, Cubs ML -122, Angels ML -104 All 1u
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Record: 8-4 Net Units: +0.80u
Last Picks: Brewers ML -245 and Athletics ML -200 cashed. Dodgers ML -152 lost.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-162), 1u to win +0.62u
Model: Brewers show the strongest edge on the card, with a 72.2% win probability vs a 60.5% market price.
Pitching: Milwaukee profiles as the cleaner side again. The model is giving the Brewers a major probability gap, which usually means starter plus bullpen setup is carrying the play.
Market: -162 is still playable compared to the model number. This is the best value gap of the three at +11.7%.
Context: Milwaukee has been the more trustworthy side in this matchup, and the price is much more reasonable than yesterday’s -245.
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants Pick: Chicago Cubs ML (-122), 1u to win +0.82u
Model: Cubs are priced around 51.5% by the market, but the model has them at 64.4%. That is a strong +12.9% edge.
Pitching: The model is clearly separating Chicago from San Francisco here, and at near pick’em pricing, that is the type of spot worth playing.
Market: -122 is reasonable for a side the model grades closer to a mid-60s win probability.
Context: This is the best price-to-edge play on the card.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels Pick: Los Angeles Angels ML (-104), 1u to win +0.96u
Model: This one is much thinner. Angels are sitting right around 49.5%, basically in line with market.
Pitching: No major model edge here, so this is more of a small directional lean than a true value play.
Market: -104 is close to a coin flip price. I would keep this lighter confidence compared to Brewers and Cubs.
Context: Angels are the agent pick, but the edge column is flat, so this is the riskiest of the three.
Plays: Brewers ML -162, Cubs ML -122, Angels ML -104 All 1u
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