Posted:
#26
Long story short? Too much time typing. BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
(59-51) -4.31 units in 14 days
Posted:
#27
@Cmlee123
Thanks for letting me know.
My ripoff book still has my METS totals and TT wagers up like they won't be voided.
Obviously they are trying to hope I won't notice the pitching change.
Just be aware that RL, Totals and Team Totals on MOST books are considered a "listed pitchers" wager and are VOIDED once the pitchers change and you must put the wager back in.
The only book I am aware of right now that considers them "action pitchers" by default is Bookmaker.
If you know of others, please let me know.
"What is grief? If not love perservering?."
Posted:
#28
METS at the Cincinnati Reds. PITCHING CHANGE ALERT!!
David Peterson was called up from AAA and will be starting for Max Scherzer.
With Max Scherzer (neck) being scratched from his start Tuesday, Peterson will return to the big-league mound.
Peterson has struggled to a 7.34 ERA and 1.57 WHIP with 36 strikeouts over 30.2 innings in six starts with New York this season.
His last 2 starts in April he had a 9.90/1.40 ERA/WHIP.
Certainly not an upgrade over Scherzer.
I am going to put my wagers back in on the game. Of course, the lines have changed.
Official Plays
METS/REDS OVER 11 +100 3 units
METS TT OVER 5.5 -115 3 units
Cincinnati TT OVER 4 -120 3 units
"What is grief? If not love perservering?."
Posted:
#31
LA Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers. N. Syndergaard vs E. Lauer.
Mr. Syndergaard will step back in as the Dodgers' No. 5 starter this week. Gavin Stone got sent back to AAA after a bad MLB debut.
He likely doesn't have significant job security after posting a 6.32 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 12.3 K/BB% through his first six starts.
All of those metrics are the worst or second-worst marks of his career.
His last 3 starts he was 7.03/1.57 ERA/WHIP. Home 3.47/1.16 and away 14.63/2.13. Wow! Only 2 road starts but still 
.
Lefties hitting .321 while righties .288.
His last 2 starts were 9.64/1.82 ERA/WHIP.
Spin rate is 1983rpms. He had Tommy John surgery in 2020 and has not been the same.
FIP at 4.74 and BABIP at .333 seem to indicate he has been somewhat unlucky or behind some bad defensive plays. He could improves off these numbers.
Mr. Lauer has a 3.52/1 50 ERA/WHIP over his last 3 starts and a 4.70/2.35 over his last 2 starts.
Those numbers reflect some very bad defensive plays that cost him some runs recently.
Lefties hitting him at .111 and righties at .307. Home 12.86/2.86 and away 1.90/1.14. When you see disparities this big, you need to check FIP/BABIP.
FIP is 5.36 and BABIP is .318. Still not great but better than those away numbers. Everything points a lot to him being unlucky and having very bad defense behind him.
But it's definitely not all good for his pitching. His ground ball rate is only 27.5% this year which is way below league average and explains some of the big numbers.
The line on the game is LA Dodgers -125 and the Brewers +105. With these pitchers, the side is a coin flip. What we are interested in is the OVERs.
Interestingly, we have what appears to be a value heavy OVER 9.5 at -110. Dodgers TT OVER 4.5 -135 and Brewers OVER 4.5 -110 also have value.
Official Plays
Dodgers/Brewers OVER 9.5 -110 for 3 units
Dodgers OVER 4.5 -135 for 3 units.
Brewers OVER 4.5 -110 for 3 units.
I would lean to the value being with the Brewers here at the +105 just because Syndergaard has been SO BAD.
"What is grief? If not love perservering?."
Hot Forum Topics
