The Braves and METS are playing a doubleheader tomorrow.
I have talked about how the METS are basically a sub .500 team masquerading as a good team multiple times.
They could easily get swept tomorrow.
Spencer Strider vs Denyi Reyes in game 1.
Reyes is a reliever they are throwing out there to see if something sticks. He has a grand total of 14IPs in the majors in the last 2 years. 2022 was his last year in AAA ball where he had a decent sample size of 54IPs, his ERA was 7.17 and a WHIP of 1.52.
If Reyes has a great outing, I will be very surprised. If he doesn't, you get to the METS BP real fast. The Braves dominate the METS in literally every major pitching statistic.
Mr. Strider, on the other hand, is nearly elite if not elite right now. His last 3 starts he has a 1.42 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP.
In game 2, Charlie Morton is going vs Tylor Megill.
Morton has a sparkling 1.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over his last 3. Megill has a 5.79 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over his last 3. Over his last 2 starts its a 7.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP.
Morton, on the other hand, has improved his metrics game to game over each of his 5 starts with the last 3 starts being high quality.
The Braves dominate the METS in hitting in almost every major metric.
Of course, none of this guarantees the METS get swept tomorrow, but the probability is high.
I don't have any lines for these games yet, but the chances are good that we can put together some wagers that seek to take advantage of a scenario where the Braves win at least one of the two games and we can be profitable on a split.
And if they get swept, then we will be very profitable.
Game 2 of the Braves/METS doubleheader will definitely be a play or two.
My book STILL does not have lines up for either game of the doubleheader.
No excuse for that. I've got to get a new book or two lined up.
Strong leans on Toronto and the Cubs as well.
These are not plays yet, just leans.
Looking at Game 1 Braves/Mets.
Team total lines can give you a lot of good information. Most don't really pay much attention to them but they are critical to capping a game.
The Braves team total is set at 5.5 runs. Over 5.5 is +110. Under 5.5 is -140.
The NATS team total is set at 2.5 runs. Over 2.5 is -148. Under 2.5 is +118.
What do these numbers tell us? First, the books believe that the Braves are going to hit this NATS starter pretty hard. 5.5 as a median point is a pretty high number.
But they do have the UNDER 5.5 juiced pretty high at -140. Seems a bit strange vs this NATS pitcher who has a very small sample size of MLB pitching.
The NATS TT set at 2.5 is pretty low. The books are aware of the METS scoring woes. The over is heavily juiced, perhaps to discourage money coming in as they are uncomfortable with the 2.5 number even though they believe they won't score a lot.
And then, you have the full game total at 8.5. OVER is +100 and UNDER is -120. The books have an overall bias that the game will stay under 9 runs.
9 runs is "generally", in most previous years, considered the "average" total runs scored in MLB. Remains to be seen if this will be higher this year. I believe it will be higher.
Strider is nearing elite status. His last outing he went 8IP giving up 2H and no runs. He could completely blank this METS lineup today. The odds favor a very strong performance by him.
Not so much for Mr. Reyes. These lines reflect these points.
Comparing the game line of -220 to the Braves team total OVER 5.5 -140, we can see that we are getting a significant discount. If we believe that the Braves will hit this reliever and we want to eliminate Strider's performance from the equation, this presents us with some good value. An .80 cent discount.
Comparing the METS line of +187 to the METS team total UNDER 2.5 +118, we can see that we make more money taking the ML. If we believe that the METS will NOT hit Mr. Strider, we can get a .79 cent value by taking the +187 vs the +118.
To dig even deeper, notice the Braves RL -1.5 is set at -145.
This is higher than the Braves TT O5.5 -140.
But the difference between the books TT numbers is 5.5 - 2.5 = 3. Their predicted score of this game is that the Braves win by 3 runs.
So the Braves RL has significant value as a probable +EV wager. A 3 run win by the Braves easily eclipses the -1.5 RL.
This also infers that the Braves TT O5.5 has a high probability of going OVER.
Most outcomes where the Braves win by 3 will have them covering that TT.
Even taking the low side of the Braves TT 5.5 (5) and the high side of the METS TT 2.5 (3) and subtracting (5-3=2) runs, we cover the 1.5 RL.
Scattershooting and thinking out loud about my processes in capping a game.
And this is barely scratching the surface. There are a lot more factors to be reviewed.
I don't expect it to all sink in the first time.
But it's worth reading more than once.
Edit: Finished up writing that and refreshed the screen on the book. The Braves have dropped down to -205 from the -220 they were at just 30 minutes ago. Holy cow!
Interesting.
Even as the game line drops from Braves -267 last night to -220 this morning to -205 now, the Braves TT numbers have not budged on the -220 to -205 move.
But the METS TT numbers DID move.
Braves TT O5.5 +110 and TTU5.5-140 are exactly where they were before the recent line drop.
METS TT O2.5 -155 and TTU 2.5 +125 have moved quite a bit from -148/+118.
The lines are out for the Braves/METS game 2.
Atlanta ML -121, RL -1.5 +140, O9 +100 U9 -120, TTO4.5 -108 U4.5 -122
METS ML +101, RL -160, TTO3.5 -148, TTU3.5 +118
Books expecting a much closer and possibly a 1 run game here. Massive juice on the METS RL at -160 and TTO3.5 at -148.
Edit: This brings up an interesting point. It is a real thing that managers will manage these 2nd games of doubleheaders depending on what the outcome was in the first game. Obviously, everyone including the books sees the Braves winning the first game. The books believe the METS will go harder in the second game to get a split. We will see how that works out.
Well, I say "obviously everyone" thinks the Braves win game 1. Someone with money does not think that way. The line is moving toward the METS hard.
METS playing a bulllpen game in game 1.
Another sign that they don't think they can win game 1.
Thinking they come in with Jimmy Yacabonis and his 13.50 ERA after Danyi Reyes.
Or one of the other scrubs in the BP.
They don't have enough good pitchers in the BP to make this a close game. They just don't.
And the Braves TT numbers did drop now.
I'm pulling the trigggggggggggggggggggggggggggggerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!
Official Play.
Atlanta Braves Game 1 RL -1.5 -120 for 3 units.
Atlanta Braves TT O4.5 -127 for 3 units.
Going against the HUGE line movement. Do what you will with it but I'm LOCKED in baby!
Established in 1995,
, looking forward to your plays for Monday.
Keep rollin bud GL today
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