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2014 Spring Training

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Captain
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Posted: #151
Broker No problem bro, all's good, we all see things differently and i've won a lot of money doing what i do

I does not matter if anyone follows or not as that is not my real reason to post as i want to follow teams plays as see where they go compared to last year and when i see the right time i will lay 5 and 10 units on a play but for the first week its more of a wait and see situation for me
 I do like to post my plays so i can look back from prior years as i did with last year and print info i built over those years and apply them to current year

I can guarantee there will be a few teams that go 10-15 wins in a row and i will be ready for them just as Royals with their 10 and 8 game win streak in 2013 and even more so with Toronto and their 18 game win streak in 2012 all in Spring training
 
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Posted: #152
You keep preaching about the Royals and Jays streaks. How are you going to predict which team will streak? Just curious as to what determines you to run with a team?
 
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Posted: #153
Coatsy, he plans to follow a team, I believe, when they get to 5 wins in a row
 
Captain
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Posted: #154
If you review past win/loss streaks over the years you find more advantages as streaks build and that is when i will wager 5 and 10 units on a game along with Runs for vs Runs allowed that i also post as season goes forward

For example if you review Nationals 2013 they scored 124 runs in 2013 and allowed 138 = just a difference of 14 runs not a large % to wager on that team,so i would had avoided wagering on them

Take Pirates right now on a 2 game win streak with 14 runs scored in just 2 games and only allowing 7 total = +7 run advantage in favor of them and as games progress the variation will increase

Just opposite Cinn has gone 1-1 already scoring 11 runs and allowing 14 in 2 games = -3

to me if pirates were playing Cinn today i would play Pirates with a distinct run advantage of 10 runs when compare both clubs along with a 2 game W Streak vs a team at 1-1 for 5 units
 These plays will show up and i will be ready to wager on them

in a week all hell will break out and i will be there waiting for the ADVANTAGES with my 10 unit wager
 
Captain
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Posted: #155
Teams that score the most runs normally will win a game as we all know and as ST season continues so will the #'s and the disadvantages when two teams meet to play ,i apply both run advantages with win streaks vs poor run support and loss streaks together

The plays will show up as they have done in past and i will be ready

I still need another week for all to come together and poss sooner if pirates continue along with any others as i review finals in days to come, but they will come and i will be ready
 
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Posted: #156
thinggs that jump out just looking at what i have posted over the last 3 years 
Cubs have not won their 1st game in St in last 3 years
Not a big thing but is interesting
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Rockies have won their 1st ST game in each of the last 3 years 
Marlins Ditto
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 here's one
Brewers had won its 1st ST game in the last 3 years and also won yesterday, so had you followed that trend you would had won with them but that is just a small item as ariz had lost is last 3 and yet the won yesterday so does not always work out but thhats gambling
 
Captain
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Posted: #157
NL
 Today we have 2 teams 1st game so whats the play

cards have not won a 1st game in St in last 3 years
Marlins have not lost a 1st game in ST in last 3 years

 Marlins for me in a parlay with others to come for small $$

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 Nyy on a 2 game loss streak and has a 7-14= -7 run disadvantage
Detroit is on a 1 game win with 9-2 = +2 Run Advantage
For me detroit is the play with a  1 game win streak and more so has a + 9 Run Win advantage But Can't play game  due to split squad today playing Phillies too

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Pirates play Toronto today
 Pirates 2 game win streak and run 14-7= +7
jays 2 game win streak and runs 11-8 = +3
 edge to pirates +4
 not  a strong play due to records so will put on parlay
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i do not expect Cubs to win today due to past 1st games record at 0-3 so will parlay Laa with parlay have running
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Cinn plays Cleve
Cinn 1-1 and run record is 11-15 = -4
Clev 1-1 and run rec is 15-11 = +4
adding to parlay Cleve wins + 8 edge
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Seattle 1-0 and 7-1 run rec = +6
Padres 0-1 and run rec is 1-7= -6
 passing this play
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Royals 0-1 and run rec is 7-11 = -4
Texas 1-0 and run rec is 11-7 = +4
pass
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Parlay for small $$$
Marlins
Pirates
Laa
Cleve
 
Veteran
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Posted: #158
Good Luck boss....$5 ML Parlay kc/sea for me....GL all...
 
Captain
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Posted: #159
boy did i post this wrong

 Nyy on a 2 game loss streak and has a 7-14= -7 run disadvantage
Detroit is on a 1 game win with 9-2 = +2 Run Advantage
For me detroit is the play with a  1 game win streak and more so has a + 9 Run Win advantage But Can't play game  due to split squad today playing Phillies too
________________________________________________________

 Nyy on a 2 game loss streak and has a 7-14= -7 run disadvantage
Detroit is on a 1 game win with 9-2 = +7 Run Advantage
For me detroit is the play with a  1 game win streak and more so has a + 14 Run Win advantage But Can't play game  due to split squad today playing Phillies too
______________________________________________________

Played parlay for 20 bucks as need to see more games played b4 i wager 5 units but its coming
 
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Posted: #160
On board with Miami, man i love baseball 
 
Captain
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Posted: #161
NL
 Today we have 2 teams 1st game so whats the play

cards have not won a 1st game in St in last 3 years
Marlins have not lost a 1st game in ST in last 3 years

 Marlins for me in a parlay with others to come for small $$
HAVE NOT LOST THEIR FIRST  GAME NOW IN 4 YEARS
_____________________________________________________
 Nyy on a 2 game loss streak and has a 7-14= -7 run disadvantage
Detroit is on a 1 game win with 9-2 = +2 Run Advantage
For me detroit is the play with a  1 game win streak and more so has a + 9 Run Win advantage But Can't play game  due to split squad today playing Phillies too

_____________________________________________________
Pirates play Toronto today
 Pirates 2 game win streak and run 14-7= +7
jays 2 game win streak and runs 11-8 = +3
 edge to pirates +4
 not  a strong play due to records so will put on parlay
__________________________________________________
i do not expect Cubs to win today due to past 1st games record at 0-3 so will parlay Laa with parlay have running
 cubs now 0-4 in last 4 years
__________________________________________________
Cinn plays Cleve
Cinn 1-1 and run record is 11-15 = -4
Clev 1-1 and run rec is 15-11 = +4
adding to parlay Cleve wins + 8 edge


 
Captain
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Posted: #162

Seattle 1-0 and 7-1 run rec = +6
Padres 0-1 and run rec is 1-7= -6
 passing this play

Seattle now has scored 19 runs and only allowed 2 runs in 2 gamesif play tomorrow i will be on them
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Royals 0-1 and run rec is 7-11 = -4
Texas 1-0 and run rec is 11-7 = +4
pass
_____________________________________
Parlay for small $$$
Marlins
Pirates
Laa
Cleve
 
Captain
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Posted: #163
2nd thoughts now on Seattle as they are playing Laa who just spanked Cubbies 15-3 although i do not see them doing the same to Angels but may need to rethink that match up although can they score 15 runs again
 
Captain
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Posted: #164
jays on a 3 gm win streak already,may need to play them for 1 unit on Saturday vs Orioles
 
Captain
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Posted: #165
jays     on a 3-0 gm win streak
Cleve   on a 2-0 gm win streak 
Seattle on a 2-0 gm win streak
________________________
Padres on a 0-2 loss streak
Phillies on a 0-2 loss streak
Cinn     on a 0-2 loss streak
doesn't take long
__________________________

 
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Posted: #166
Thanks for your explanation.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #167
finally got some winners yesterday w/ KC/sea single and ML parlay..

saturday: det ML..sea ML..kc ML...also parlaying....GL to all
 
Captain
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Posted: #168
Morn guys just missed that small parlay due to Pirates can't get that W,Played small so did not lose much as still very early but nice to see things coming along as expected
What looks good today
By applying runs scored vs runs allowed in just 2 days along with current win/loss streaks this is what i have come up with for a round robin parlay today
Jays as they are 3-0 already and i like what they are doing this early already not to mention 2 years ago they did go on an 18-0 win streak in ST yeaaaa i know another year and other group but they are on my watch list
_______________________________________________
On Pirates again today and only team that screwed me yesterday and if they lose today i'm off them for a while
_______________________________________________
Rockies impressed me with their 11-0 win and Cinn (11-19) --8 looks weak in run reduction so i'll chance Colorado to win
___________________________________________________
Cleve 19-11= +8 in runs vs Chw 0-5 in just one game but no runs intrigues me Cleve and that 2-0 win streak i like
__________________________________________________
Royals look as the team to play today vs Padres with  a 2-19 = -17 run dis advantage
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 like 2 plays in Ncaab too so will parlay all together 
4-0 Miss St and more so their opposition at 0-3 and that record to cover is not good of late at 21-58,,also 4-0 are 21-23 showing a strong 50% cover vs 0-3.s at 27% cover rate
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5-0 Towson  at 14-8 cover record of late and for season at record 39-26= a 60 % cover rate not great but not bad but with 14-8 adds merit at 64% ,shows Consistency to Cover over the season
___________________________________________________
After today we should start to see some glimmer of hope who in MLB is to watch and start wagering large on
 
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Posted: #169
I like the Yanks today, three pitchers going that really need to show up this season.
 
Captain
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Posted: #170
Matchup #1

Balt
2011,,,W,W,L,W,L,L,W,L,W,W,L,L,W,L,L,W.W.L,W,L,W,W,L       (12-11-0) 133-122 
2012...L,W,W,P,W,L,L,P,L,L,L,L,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,L,L                  (8-11-1)   89/118
2013,,,W,W,L,L,P,W,W,W,L,W,L,W,W,W,P,L,W,W,L,L,P              (11-7-3) 119/117
2014,,,W
___________________________________________________
JAYS
2911,,,L,L,L,W,L,W,L,W,W,L,W,W,W,P,W,L,L,L,W,L,W,L,                         (10-11-1)
2012,,,W,W,L,L,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,W     (21-4-0)
2013,,,W,L,L,W,W,P,L,L,W.L,L,L,W,L,L,L,W,L,W,W,L,W,W,W,L,W,            (12-13-1)
2014,,,W,W,W


 
Captain
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Posted: #171
For me NYY is at 0-2 and not looking good to put money on just yet and i do not like their RF/Ra ratio over their 2 games with totals at    7-14= -7
 to me , a  negative so i'll pass their game although there playing Phillies who are just as bad at 8-11 = -3 I'll wait for brighter days
 
Captain
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Posted: #172
If Cards lose today that will be the 2nd loss in 1st two ST games in last 2 years,,,
 
Captain
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Posted: #173
Jays as they are 3-0 already and i like what they are doing this early already not to mention 2 years ago they did go on an 18-0 win streak in ST yeaaaa i know another year and other group but they are on my watch list,,,Jays up 6-2
_______________________________________________
On Pirates again today and only team that screwed me yesterday and if they lose today i'm off them for a while
Pirates up 2-1,,,
__________________
Rockies impressed me with their 11-0 win and Cinn (11-19) --8 looks weak in run reduction so i'll chance Colorado to win

 Jumped on Detroit but failed to post
____________________________________
 late gms Rockies
Seattle
Cleve
Royals

 
Captain
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Posts: 6398
Posted: #174
cancel that cards post as they are in a Split squad game today so that game does not count in wager record book and not offered anyway
 
 
Captain
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Posts: 6398
Posted: #175
Balt
2011,,,W,W,L,W,L,L,W,L,W,W,L,L,W,L,L,W.W.L,W,L,W,W,L       (12-11-0) 133-122 
2012...L,W,W,P,W,L,L,P,L,L,L,L,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,L,L                  (8-11-1)   89/118
2013,,,W,W,L,L,P,W,W,W,L,W,L,W,W,W,P,L,W,W,L,L,P              (11-7-3) 119/117
2014,,,

Bost
2011,,,L,W,W,L,L,W,L,W,L,W,W,L,W,L,L,W,L,L,L,L,W.P,W           (10-12-1)
2012,,,W,W,L,L,W,W,W,W,L,W,L,L,L,P,L,L,W,W,L,P,W,W,W         (12-9-2) 118-96
2013,,,W,L,W,W,L,W,L,L,L,W,L,W,W,W,W,L,L,L,W,L,L,W,L,L,W,L (12-14-0) 123-121     
2014,,,L

Chw
2011,,,L,L,L,W,L,L,L,L,L,L,L,L,W,L,L,W,L,L,L,L,W,L,L,                 ( 4-19-0) 
2012,,,L,L,L,W,L,L,L,W,L,L,W,L,W,W,W,L,W,W,L,L,W,L,W,P       (10-13-1)
2013,,,W,P,W,W,L,L,W,L,W,W,L,W,L,L,L,L,L,W,P,L,L,L,W,W       (10-12-2)
2014,,,L




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