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🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

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Posted: #2126

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

LUZARDO (Phillies) got mauled on Saturday!  But prior to that had been on an 11 game consecutive HOT STREAK in which he had not recorded a "BAD outing"..... He is having a very good season notwithstanding that last - inevitable - start.  Happens to all good starters sooner or later! But odds are against a GOOD STARTER running onto 2 consecutive "BAD outings"  So I suspect he pitches very well today!  Although that does not guarantee Phillies prevail, since the Philly bats *MUST* come through with run support. But BlewIT Jays do bat well against lefties...

 

FRIED (NYY) is another example of an EXCELLENT starter who enjoyed a 10 game hot streak with no BAD outings >>> until last game.  Happens to all hot streaks sooner or later!

Typically, VERY GOOD starters like him don't have back to back bad outings so the odds are heavily in favor he avoids one.....but the Yankee bats need to support his performance...

 
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Posted: #2127

. June 05 

an_police an_blowhorn  HOT STREAK WARNING!

 

                            RAY,  Giants

 

             This STARTER is riding a tenuous 8-game  HOT STREAK, 

                    WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!

 

       ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! an_nailbiter an_speechless an_getaway          

 

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  It happens to the best of them.  Just CAN NOT be avoided.

When???  We can't know this for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances. It happens!  But for me, I don't need the stress that his bubble may burst that day.  There's other games to look at.  I can simply skip those "STREAKER" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing, then resume looking at his starts! an_2drinks

 

CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team loses! It just seriously weakens their chances. But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe

 
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Posted: #2128

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: LUZARDO (Phillies) got mauled on Saturday!  But prior to that had been on an 11 game consecutive HOT STREAK in which he had not recorded a "BAD outing"..... He is having a very good season notwithstanding that last - inevitable - start.  Happens to all good starters sooner or later! But odds are against a GOOD STARTER running onto 2 consecutive "BAD outings"  So I suspect he pitches very well today!  Although that does not guarantee Phillies prevail, since the Philly bats *MUST* come through with run support. But BlewIT Jays do bat well against lefties...  

 

FRIED (NYY) is another example of an EXCELLENT starter who enjoyed a 10 game hot streak with no BAD outings >>> until last game.  Happens to all hot streaks sooner or later! Typically, VERY GOOD starters like him don't have back to back bad outings so the odds are heavily in favor he avoids one.....but the Yankee bats need to support his performance...

 

LIBERATORE (St.Louis, game 2)  is another who had great stats for his previous 8 starts until a BAD outing last game...

Usually we would not expect a GOOD starter to suffer 2 consecutive bad outings.  But will he get run support?

 
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Posted: #2129

@fubah2

 Good luck on todays plays buddy an_cheers

 

 
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Posted: #2130

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

LUZARDO (Phillies) got mauled on Saturday!  But prior to that had been on an 11 game consecutive HOT STREAK in which he had not recorded a "BAD outing"..... He is having a very good season notwithstanding that last - inevitable - start.  Happens to all good starters sooner or later! But odds are against a GOOD STARTER running onto 2 consecutive "BAD outings"  So I suspect he pitches very well today!  Although that does not guarantee Phillies prevail, since the Philly bats *MUST* come through with run support. But BlewIT Jays do bat well against lefties...

 

surprised LUZARDO does indeed suffer his 2nd consecutive BAD OUTING ....allowing 5 hits and 4 earned runs in only 2 outings! an_speechless

It happens of course, but it's not usual....

 

 

 
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Posted: #2131

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: LUZARDO (Phillies) got mauled on Saturday!  But prior to that had been on an 11 game consecutive HOT STREAK in which he had not recorded a "BAD outing"..... He is having a very good season notwithstanding that last - inevitable - start.  Happens to all good starters sooner or later! But odds are against a GOOD STARTER running onto 2 consecutive "BAD outings"  So I suspect he pitches very well today!  Although that does not guarantee Phillies prevail, since the Philly bats *MUST* come through with run support. But BlewIT Jays do bat well against lefties...    LUZARDO does indeed suffer his 2nd consecutive BAD OUTING ....allowing 5 hits and 4 earned runs in only 2 outings!  It happens of course, but it's not usual....

im thinking the loss of JT was also a considerable factor.. GL with da Yanks an_cheers

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Posted: #2132

Quote Originally Posted by JJWoods:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: LUZARDO (Phillies) got mauled on Saturday!  But prior to that had been on an 11 game consecutive HOT STREAK in which he had not recorded a "BAD outing"..... He is having a very good season notwithstanding that last - inevitable - start.  Happens to all good starters sooner or later! But odds are against a GOOD STARTER running onto 2 consecutive "BAD outings"  So I suspect he pitches very well today!  Although that does not guarantee Phillies prevail, since the Philly bats *MUST* come through with run support. But BlewIT Jays do bat well against lefties...    LUZARDO does indeed suffer his 2nd consecutive BAD OUTING ....allowing 5 hits and 4 earned runs in only 2 outings!  It happens of course, but it's not usual.... im thinking the loss of JT was also a considerable factor.. GL with da Yanks

In only 5.2 ip his past 2 games, Luzardo allowed 26 on base and 20 ER! an_speechlessan_getaway

A mean avg of 5 baserunners and 4 runs every inning! surprised

 
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Posted: #2133

BRAVES blow a huge lead late and lose....

The reliever who started the failure?

 

...a reliever aptly named  BLEWETT

 

 
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Posted: #2134

new_laugh_cry

 
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Posted: #2135

@Fuse       TY! peace_5 BoL with your bets! cloveran_2drinks

 

@Zeus4par   TY! peace_5 BoL with your bets! cloveran_2drinks

 

@RayRayK    TY! peace_5 BoL with your bets! cloveran_2drinks

 

@JJWoods   TY! peace_5 BoL with your bets! cloveran_2drinks

 

@TDHCentral    TY! peace_5 BoL with your bets! cloveran_2drinks

 

@Coloneljim   TY! peace_5 BoL with your bets! cloveran_2drinks

 

@Moose6836   TY! peace_5 BoL with your bets! cloveran_2drinks

 

@mandy1    TY so much, as always, bud! peace_5 BoL with your bets! clover

 

@KellyM_1964 TY so much, as always, bud! peace_5 BoL with your bets! clover

 

 
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Posted: #2136

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: LUZARDO (Phillies) got mauled on Saturday!  But prior to that had been on an 11 game consecutive HOT STREAK in which he had not recorded a "BAD outing"..... He is having a very good season notwithstanding that last - inevitable - start.  Happens to all good starters sooner or later! But odds are against a GOOD STARTER running onto 2 consecutive "BAD outings"  So I suspect he pitches very well today!  Although that does not guarantee Phillies prevail, since the Philly bats *MUST* come through with run support. But BlewIT Jays do bat well against lefties...     FRIED (NYY) is another example of an EXCELLENT starter who enjoyed a 10 game hot streak with no BAD outings >>> until last game.  Happens to all hot streaks sooner or later! Typically, VERY GOOD starters like him don't have back to back bad outings so the odds are heavily in favor he avoids one.....but the Yankee bats need to support his performance...  

LIBERATORE (St.Louis, game 2)  is another who had great stats for his previous 8 starts until a BAD outing last game... Usually we would not expect a GOOD starter to suffer 2 consecutive bad outings.  But will he get run support?

And he makes a liar out of me too confused

In only 3 ip he has allowed 6 hits and 5 ER .....4 ER is an automatic "bad outing"

 
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Posted: #2137

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by JJWoods: After 10+ consecutive solid outings, would you consider fading, as certainly the value would be there?  Absolutely I would consider it.   As you noted, the value has risen substantively to fade the dude whose hot streak without a bad outing hangs precariously on the end of a very long thin limb.  BUT, the problem is: *IF* he is otherwise supported by a strong batting lineup capable of scoring a number of runs against that day's opponent...then even if he has a "BAD outing" his team could still win anyway.  To increase our chances with a fade we need an opponent that is generally weak at run-scoring - particularly the past 30 days or so.     As we can see from the stats, the weakest teams for run support (rpg) are Colorado, WhiteSox, Rangers, and Seattle.  Those offenses would likely struggle to score enough to overcome a bad outing by their starter.  Padres and Giants also struggling.  The reverse is true for the top teams and many of the middlin teams, which is why I choose to PASS and skip the stress when their starter is on a hot streak of at least 7 without a bad outing...  

 

That said,

Tuesday, June 3:

Rays -133  @pin    (fading MAHLE and his weak batting Rangers)

WINNER!  

1 - 0 +1.00

 

YTD:  23 - 18     -0.93    [2 - 2 *BB]

Still scrambling back from 2 "bad outings" last week.

Yankees -275 pending

 
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Posted: #2138

@fubah2

 an_woo

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
 
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Posted: #2139

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Thursday, June 05:

Yankees -275

WINNER!  an_boggienight

 

YTD:  24 - 18  +0.07       [2 - 2 *BB]

 
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Posted: #2140

Friday, JUNE 06: (overnight lines)


Yankees -172
Astros -105
Brewskies -143
Angels +133
A's +100
Balt/A's un 11 -110
SD/Milw un 9 -130

Tailing still NOT recommended...

 

 
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Posted: #2141

@fubah2

 thumbs_up Have a day 

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Posted: #2142

@fubah2   been up all night getting mets now live to close 6 parlays ...  mets live now (-198)  ... senga for mets 40 at bats ONLY 2 hits vs colo history and 15 k's with only 4 walks .... (i know it isn't on your list but if you have any input would be great)... lindor day to day but so is tovar for colo .....    up late rambling on ...  gonna go get  some sleep i hope... thx

 

goldfinger 1964
 
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Posted: #2143

gl

glta
 
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Posted: #2144

I really believe (just my thoughts) that the Phillies will struggle without a major part of the machine JT Realmutto. JT took a Bo Bichette deflection right in the family jewels….good news, actually great news, is that JT’s scrotum remained completely intact! thumbs_up 

He’s the heart and sole of this squad, and with the recent loss of their closer to a performance enhancement suspension….

I see a little Phillies fade this weekend at cross state rival Pittsburgh an_popcorn 

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Posted: #2145
Let’s hope our twins can bounce back after yesterday!!! Hope Pablo’s injury won’t ruin twins season!!!
 
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Posted: #2146

Best of luck on today's plays fubah  peace_5  clover

 
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Posted: #2147

Quote Originally Posted by PUSSYGALORE333:

@fubah2   been up all night getting mets now live to close 6 parlays ...  mets live now (-198)  ... senga for mets 40 at bats ONLY 2 hits vs colo history and 15 k's with only 4 walks .... (i know it isn't on your list but if you have any input would be great)... lindor day to day but so is tovar for colo .....    up late rambling on ...  gonna go get  some sleep i hope... thx

@PUSSYGALORE333

I have METS with a massive 3.3 run edge to defeat Colorado AFTER accounting for the Lindor absentee. The net pitching matchup (starters + BP) are one of the widest disparities this season - favoring METS heavily!   

BUT..... that's what I thought on May 11 when I began my season - with the first place Padres in Colorado having a massive 4.0 run edge over the Rockies......I lost 3 - 9 at -275 odds, sending me back to the drawing board for 10 days....And Rockies riding a bit of a high now coming off a 3 game road sweep of the Marlins.  So personally I am a bit skittish about laying heavy when I can just pass and look elsewhere.  METS should win though, as I am certain you and most others feel as well.  Probability is certainly on METS' side despite Lindor - just due to the "anticipated" pitching edge alone!   I just can't get May 11 out of my head, so I am passing...

clover BoL to you though! an_2drinks

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #2148

Quote Originally Posted by Moose6836:

Let’s hope our twins can bounce back after yesterday!!! Hope Pablo’s injury won’t ruin twins season!!!

UGHH! an_speechless    Twinkies are phuuuuuucked! an_getaway

 
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Posted: #2149

. June 06 

an_police an_blowhorn  HOT STREAK WARNING!

 

                            Littell,  Tampa

 

             This STARTER is riding a tenuous 9-game  HOT STREAK, 

                    WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!

 

       ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! an_nailbiter an_speechless an_getaway          

 

CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team loses! It just seriously weakens their chances. But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe

 
 
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Posted: #2150

. June 06 

an_police an_blowhorn  HOT STREAK WARNING!

 

                            Ober,  Twinkies

 

             This STARTER is riding a tenuous 11-game  HOT STREAK, 

                    WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!

 

       ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! an_nailbiter an_speechless an_getaway          

 

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  It happens to the best of them.  Just CAN NOT be avoided.

When???  We can't know this for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances. It happens!  But for me, I don't need the stress that his bubble may burst that day.  There's other games to look at.  I can simply skip those "STREAKER" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing, then resume looking at his starts! an_2drinks

 

CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team loses! It just seriously weakens their chances. But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe

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