This STARTER is riding a tenuous 8-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end anytime!
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" it doesn't guarantee his team loses! Just seriously weakens their chances! His team's bats could come thru with runs to save the day....... maybe
Burnes pitched very well again, allowing only 5 on thru 4.2 ip helping DBACKS to a 3 - 1 win, although he was yanked due to an apparent injury.
His streak continues to 9 consecutive starts without a BAD outing. However, not only is his streak due for a "bad outing" sooner rather than later, but his next start will be following an injury -- and that is typically a good reason to PASS anyway!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
.
HOT STREAK WARNING!!!
Burnes, Arizona
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 8-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end anytime!
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" it doesn't guarantee his team loses! Just seriously weakens their chances! His team's bats could come thru with runs to save the day....... maybe
Burnes pitched very well again, allowing only 5 on thru 4.2 ip helping DBACKS to a 3 - 1 win, although he was yanked due to an apparent injury.
His streak continues to 9 consecutive starts without a BAD outing. However, not only is his streak due for a "bad outing" sooner rather than later, but his next start will be following an injury -- and that is typically a good reason to PASS anyway!
Quote Originally Posted by mandy1: The people that have followed you over the years know how good you are, a couple of bad days do not make a season. you are one of the best on covers and I wish you luck today. @mandy1 THANK YOU, my friend! Wishing you BoL with your bets this coming week! I managed to end my 2 day losing streak and even-up my *Best Bets at 2!
@fubah2
Trending back in the right direction
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by mandy1: The people that have followed you over the years know how good you are, a couple of bad days do not make a season. you are one of the best on covers and I wish you luck today. @mandy1 THANK YOU, my friend! Wishing you BoL with your bets this coming week! I managed to end my 2 day losing streak and even-up my *Best Bets at 2!
Gone for a couple days on a business trip but wanted to alert you...
. Tuesday, June 03
HOT STREAK WARNING!!!
Mahle, Rangers
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 11-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end anytime!
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify, are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says " pitching streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will - sooner or later - have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" it doesn't guarantee his team loses! Just seriously weakens their chances! His team's bats could come thru with runs to save the day....... maybe
Gone for a couple days on a business trip but wanted to alert you...
. Tuesday, June 03
HOT STREAK WARNING!!!
Mahle, Rangers
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 11-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end anytime!
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify, are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says " pitching streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will - sooner or later - have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" it doesn't guarantee his team loses! Just seriously weakens their chances! His team's bats could come thru with runs to save the day....... maybe
After 10+ consecutive solid outings, would you consider fading, as certainly the value would be there?
Absolutely I would consider it. As you noted, the value has risen substantively to fade the dude whose hot streak without a bad outing hangs precariously on the end of a very long thin limb.
BUT, the problem is: *IF* he is otherwise supported by a strong batting lineup capable of scoring a number of runs against that day's opponent...then even if he has a "BAD outing" his team could still win anyway. To increase our chances with a fade we need an opponent that is generally weak at run-scoring - particularly the past 30 days or so.
As we can see from the stats, the weakest teams for run support (rpg) are Colorado, WhiteSox, Rangers, and Seattle. Those offenses would likely struggle to score enough to overcome a bad outing by their starter. Padres and Giants also struggling.
The reverse is true for the top teams and many of the middlin teams, which is why I choose to PASS and skip the stress when their starter is on a hot streak of at least 7 without a bad outing...
That said,
Tuesday, June 3:
Rays -133 @pin(fading MAHLE and his weak batting Rangers)
Quote Originally Posted by JJWoods:
After 10+ consecutive solid outings, would you consider fading, as certainly the value would be there?
Absolutely I would consider it. As you noted, the value has risen substantively to fade the dude whose hot streak without a bad outing hangs precariously on the end of a very long thin limb.
BUT, the problem is: *IF* he is otherwise supported by a strong batting lineup capable of scoring a number of runs against that day's opponent...then even if he has a "BAD outing" his team could still win anyway. To increase our chances with a fade we need an opponent that is generally weak at run-scoring - particularly the past 30 days or so.
As we can see from the stats, the weakest teams for run support (rpg) are Colorado, WhiteSox, Rangers, and Seattle. Those offenses would likely struggle to score enough to overcome a bad outing by their starter. Padres and Giants also struggling.
The reverse is true for the top teams and many of the middlin teams, which is why I choose to PASS and skip the stress when their starter is on a hot streak of at least 7 without a bad outing...
That said,
Tuesday, June 3:
Rays -133 @pin(fading MAHLE and his weak batting Rangers)
Quote Originally Posted by JJWoods: After 10+ consecutive solid outings, would you consider fading, as certainly the value would be there? Absolutely I would consider it. As you noted, the value has risen substantively to fade the dude whose hot streak without a bad outing hangs precariously on the end of a very long thin limb. BUT, the problem is: *IF* he is otherwise supported by a strong batting lineup capable of scoring a number of runs against that day's opponent...then even if he has a "BAD outing" his team could still win anyway. To increase our chances with a fade we need an opponent that is generally weak at run-scoring - particularly the past 30 days or so. As we can see from the stats, the weakest teams for run support (rpg) are Colorado, WhiteSox, Rangers, and Seattle. Those offenses would likely struggle to score enough to overcome a bad outing by their starter. Padres and Giants also struggling. The reverse is true for the top teams and many of the middlin teams, which is why I choose to PASS and skip the stress when their starter is on a hot streak of at least 7 without a bad outing... That said, Tuesday, June 3: Rays -133 @pin (fading MAHLE and his weak batting Rangers)
great call fubs !
"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by JJWoods: After 10+ consecutive solid outings, would you consider fading, as certainly the value would be there? Absolutely I would consider it. As you noted, the value has risen substantively to fade the dude whose hot streak without a bad outing hangs precariously on the end of a very long thin limb. BUT, the problem is: *IF* he is otherwise supported by a strong batting lineup capable of scoring a number of runs against that day's opponent...then even if he has a "BAD outing" his team could still win anyway. To increase our chances with a fade we need an opponent that is generally weak at run-scoring - particularly the past 30 days or so. As we can see from the stats, the weakest teams for run support (rpg) are Colorado, WhiteSox, Rangers, and Seattle. Those offenses would likely struggle to score enough to overcome a bad outing by their starter. Padres and Giants also struggling. The reverse is true for the top teams and many of the middlin teams, which is why I choose to PASS and skip the stress when their starter is on a hot streak of at least 7 without a bad outing... That said, Tuesday, June 3: Rays -133 @pin (fading MAHLE and his weak batting Rangers)
Quote Originally Posted by JJWoods: After 10+ consecutive solid outings, would you consider fading, as certainly the value would be there? Absolutely I would consider it. As you noted, the value has risen substantively to fade the dude whose hot streak without a bad outing hangs precariously on the end of a very long thin limb. BUT, the problem is: *IF* he is otherwise supported by a strong batting lineup capable of scoring a number of runs against that day's opponent...then even if he has a "BAD outing" his team could still win anyway. To increase our chances with a fade we need an opponent that is generally weak at run-scoring - particularly the past 30 days or so. As we can see from the stats, the weakest teams for run support (rpg) are Colorado, WhiteSox, Rangers, and Seattle. Those offenses would likely struggle to score enough to overcome a bad outing by their starter. Padres and Giants also struggling. The reverse is true for the top teams and many of the middlin teams, which is why I choose to PASS and skip the stress when their starter is on a hot streak of at least 7 without a bad outing... That said, Tuesday, June 3: Rays -133 @pin (fading MAHLE and his weak batting Rangers)
MAHLE (Texas) did indeed experience a "BAD outing" Tuesday - yielding 4 ER - in a loss to my RAYS, and that stops his consecutive streak at 11 without a bad outing.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by JJWoods: After 10+ consecutive solid outings, would you consider fading, as certainly the value would be there? Absolutely I would consider it. As you noted, the value has risen substantively to fade the dude whose hot streak without a bad outing hangs precariously on the end of a very long thin limb. BUT, the problem is: *IF* he is otherwise supported by a strong batting lineup capable of scoring a number of runs against that day's opponent...then even if he has a "BAD outing" his team could still win anyway. To increase our chances with a fade we need an opponent that is generally weak at run-scoring - particularly the past 30 days or so. As we can see from the stats, the weakest teams for run support (rpg) are Colorado, WhiteSox, Rangers, and Seattle. Those offenses would likely struggle to score enough to overcome a bad outing by their starter. Padres and Giants also struggling. The reverse is true for the top teams and many of the middlin teams, which is why I choose to PASS and skip the stress when their starter is on a hot streak of at least 7 without a bad outing... That said, Tuesday, June 3: Rays -133 @pin (fading MAHLE and his weak batting Rangers)
MAHLE (Texas) did indeed experience a "BAD outing" Tuesday - yielding 4 ER - in a loss to my RAYS, and that stops his consecutive streak at 11 without a bad outing.
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 8-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
When??? We can't know this for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7)consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances. It happens! But for me, I don't need the stress that his bubble may burst that day. There's other games to look at. I can simply skip those "STREAKER" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing, then resume looking at his starts!
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team loses! It just seriously weakens their chances. But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe
. June 05
HOT STREAK WARNING!
Pepiot, Tampa
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 8-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
When??? We can't know this for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7)consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances. It happens! But for me, I don't need the stress that his bubble may burst that day. There's other games to look at. I can simply skip those "STREAKER" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing, then resume looking at his starts!
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team loses! It just seriously weakens their chances. But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe
LUZARDO (Phillies) got mauled on Saturday! But prior to that had been on an 11 game consecutive HOT STREAK in which he had not recorded a "BAD outing"..... He is having a very good season notwithstanding that last - inevitable - start. Happens to all good starters sooner or later!
But odds are against a GOOD STARTER running onto 2 consecutive "BAD outings"
So I suspect he pitches very well today! Although that does not guarantee Phillies prevail, since the Philly bats *MUST* come through with run support.
But BlewIT Jays do bat well against lefties...
LUZARDO (Phillies) got mauled on Saturday! But prior to that had been on an 11 game consecutive HOT STREAK in which he had not recorded a "BAD outing"..... He is having a very good season notwithstanding that last - inevitable - start. Happens to all good starters sooner or later!
But odds are against a GOOD STARTER running onto 2 consecutive "BAD outings"
So I suspect he pitches very well today! Although that does not guarantee Phillies prevail, since the Philly bats *MUST* come through with run support.
HOT STREAK WARNING!!!
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" it doesn't guarantee his team loses! Just seriously weakens their chances! His team's bats could come thru with runs to save the day....... maybe
YTD: 22 - 18 -1.93 [2 - 2 *BB]
To increase our chances with a fade we need an opponent that is generally weak at run-scoring - particularly the past 30 days or so.
I had Rays myself. good job!
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