Posted:
#8551
Saturday, Aug 22:
W Toronto -102 @pinn
W Brewskies -159 @pinn
2 - 0 +2.00u 
I broke the Saturday jinx!
🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵
Posted:
#8552
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
More LEANS I'm not betting but "woulda"
if I wasn't so damn skittish about regression, which is compounded on me by being a Saturday.
...in the Tampa/ORIOLES game I make the hometown O's for a decent +0.5 run edge and about a 54% odds to win, while getting PLUS $$$
...Cubs/SEA game I have estimated for 8.2+ runs so an over 7 should have a decent shot....10 runs were scored in 9 innings last night facing BETTER pitching than they do tonight...
Posted:
#8553
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Saturday, Aug 22: W Toronto -102 @pinn W Brewskies -159 @pinn 2 - 0 +2.00u I broke the Saturday jinx!
King Fubah... Brew was my play and I had a hard lean on BooJays who are on my do not bet list.. between my strong confidence in D$ Cease & your lean.. You help secure one of my 3 wins today... FuuuuuuuuBaaahhhh! I hope youre feeling great today... You are Gold!!
Posted:
#8557
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Angels/TEXAS is underway and I have TEXAS figured for only +0.5 run edge Had I been in a mood for betting I woulda taken a +1.5 on Anaheim for a "value bet"
Angels/TEXAS is underway and I have TEXAS figured for only +0.5 run edge Had I been in a mood for betting I woulda taken a +1.5 on Anaheim for a "value bet"
And right after I finished typing that, I looked up and Angels are already on the board with another runner in scoring position...
Posted:
#8563
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
This is not a bet or recommended pick: for me it's a "woulda, but didn't"
LEAN only to the over 8 alt-line on cards/PHIL ....I estimate 10.1 runs, give or take 2 runs either way.
...and after 6 innings, 12 runs are in . . . 
.. wtf i slept in LOL
Posted:
#8566
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Looking at the Reds/DBacks matchup, on paper this looks like a sure-thing/LOCK for DBacks Better offense, better starter, better bullpen. Logical play.
Looking at the Reds/DBacks matchup, on paper this looks like a sure-thing/LOCK for DBacks Better offense, better starter, better bullpen. Logical play.
Yep. LOGICAL. Maybe even "too good to be true" 
And my logical plays very often elude me. It's frustrating.
But when it seems "too good to be true" I prefer to PASS and look at other games...I don't need the stress. I risk nothing by passing, and I'm fine even if it eventually wins....
Posted:
#8568
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Looking at the Reds/DBacks matchup, on paper this looks like a sure-thing/LOCK for DBacks Better offense, better starter, better bullpen. Logical play.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Looking at the Reds/DBacks matchup, on paper this looks like a sure-thing/LOCK for DBacks Better offense, better starter, better bullpen. Logical play.
Yep. LOGICAL. Maybe even >>>> "too good to be true"
And my logical plays very often elude me. It's frustrating.
But when it seems "too good to be true" I prefer to PASS and look at other games...I don't need the stress. I risk nothing by passing, and I'm fine even if it eventually wins....
GOOD starter for DBacks (Soroka) getting a beatdown by the weak/struggling REDS offense. Allowed 10 to reach, 6 earnies, and is mercifully yanked after only 3.1 ip, trailing 6 to zip...Lowder pitching very well, though he's been better than average the past month
Posted:
#8569
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
More LEANS I'm not betting but "woulda" if I wasn't so damn skittish about regression, which is compounded on me by being a Saturday.
...in the Tampa/ORIOLES game I make the hometown O's for a decent +0.5 run edge and about a 54% odds to win, while getting PLUS $$$
O's win 3 - 2 
Posted:
#8571
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: More LEANS I'm not betting but "woulda" if I wasn't so damn skittish about regression, which is compounded on me by being a Saturday. ...in the Tampa/ORIOLES game I make the hometown O's for a decent +0.5 run edge and about a 54% odds to win, while getting PLUS $$$
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: More LEANS I'm not betting but "woulda" if I wasn't so damn skittish about regression, which is compounded on me by being a Saturday. ...in the Tampa/ORIOLES game I make the hometown O's for a decent +0.5 run edge and about a 54% odds to win, while getting PLUS $$$
...Cubs/SEA game I have estimated for 8.2+ runs so an over 7 should have a decent shot....10 runs were scored in 9 innings last night facing BETTER pitching than they do tonight...
Game just went final: 5 - 4 over!! 
Posted:
#8574
In my capping notes early in the day, I had the Marlins listed for a +1.5 run edge **IF** ABRAMS was held out for Washington. At the time it was uncertain so I set it aside waiting for the lineups.......then forgot about it in the excitement of following my 2 winners in their still tight later innings.
ABRAMS (ankle injury) - a HUGE KEY batter for the NATS, esp. with their TOP bat vs righties, James Wood, already OUT 
- was indeed held out and had I been paying attention I believe I "woulda" bet the -1 RL on Miami.
They won by 2.
Posted:
#8575
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
I have CLEVELAND with a decent +0.8 run edge over the Rockies! - who are without a decent batter (Goodman) and lost 1 - 9 last night when Cleveland bats were facing a mediocre righty starter (Gordon)......tonight Rockies send up roughly the same.....
I have CLEVELAND with a decent +0.8 run edge over the Rockies! - who are without a decent batter (Goodman) and lost 1 - 9 last night when Cleveland bats were facing a mediocre righty starter (Gordon)......tonight Rockies send up roughly the same.....
Cleveland wins 4 - 3 
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