CWS +118 @pinn "value bet" ...coin-flipper, with maybe +0.1 run edge to CWS
NOT EXPECTED TO WIN!
Reminder: My "value bets" are predicated around the sound logic that whenever I handicap games to be a "coin-flipper" 50/50 or very close to it, getting significant PLUS $$$ is the play.....even though I will win only 50% of the time. Don't care. 50% wins at an average +120 or so over the season = profit! But if YOU are looking for a winner, these "value bets" won't help you for that. They are NOT designed to! It's only 50/50! Yet there is "value" in betting them ALL when getting SIGNIFICANT PLUS $$$ on a bonafide 50% shot!
CWS +118 @pinn "value bet" ...coin-flipper, with maybe +0.1 run edge to CWS
NOT EXPECTED TO WIN!
Reminder: My "value bets" are predicated around the sound logic that whenever I handicap games to be a "coin-flipper" 50/50 or very close to it, getting significant PLUS $$$ is the play.....even though I will win only 50% of the time. Don't care. 50% wins at an average +120 or so over the season = profit! But if YOU are looking for a winner, these "value bets" won't help you for that. They are NOT designed to! It's only 50/50! Yet there is "value" in betting them ALL when getting SIGNIFICANT PLUS $$$ on a bonafide 50% shot!
CWS +118 @pinn "value bet" ...coin-flipper, with maybe +0.1 run edge to CWS NOT EXPECTED TO WIN! Reminder: My "value bets" are predicated around the sound logic that whenever I handicap games to be a "coin-flipper" 50/50 or very close to it, getting significant PLUS $$$ is the play.....even though I will win only 50% of the time. Don't care. 50% wins at an average +120 or so over the season = profit! But if YOU are looking for a winner, these "value bets" won't help you for that. They are NOT designed to! It's only 50/50! Yet there is "value" in betting them ALL when getting SIGNIFICANT PLUS $$$ on a bonafide 50% shot!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
CWS +118 @pinn "value bet" ...coin-flipper, with maybe +0.1 run edge to CWS NOT EXPECTED TO WIN! Reminder: My "value bets" are predicated around the sound logic that whenever I handicap games to be a "coin-flipper" 50/50 or very close to it, getting significant PLUS $$$ is the play.....even though I will win only 50% of the time. Don't care. 50% wins at an average +120 or so over the season = profit! But if YOU are looking for a winner, these "value bets" won't help you for that. They are NOT designed to! It's only 50/50! Yet there is "value" in betting them ALL when getting SIGNIFICANT PLUS $$$ on a bonafide 50% shot!
Won't even try to handicap the CUBS ........ damn silly
I'll wait however many games to see when they return to some kind of reasonable predictability. Blowing out one team 23 - 3 then losing AT HOME 1 - 17 and subsequently failing to even score the next is volatility on steroids......and trying to guess is just silly. Sound reasoning - NOT BASED ON A GUESS - or just PASS and look at a different game... Won't lose that way....
Won't even try to handicap the CUBS ........ damn silly
I'll wait however many games to see when they return to some kind of reasonable predictability. Blowing out one team 23 - 3 then losing AT HOME 1 - 17 and subsequently failing to even score the next is volatility on steroids......and trying to guess is just silly. Sound reasoning - NOT BASED ON A GUESS - or just PASS and look at a different game... Won't lose that way....
As I hoped, Cavalli IMPLODED early vs my PIRATES +129 "value" bet, allowing 8 on base in just 2.1 ip. HORRIBLE PITCHING!! They yanked him, leaving 2 on he is responsible for, one out...
As I hoped, Cavalli IMPLODED early vs my PIRATES +129 "value" bet, allowing 8 on base in just 2.1 ip. HORRIBLE PITCHING!! They yanked him, leaving 2 on he is responsible for, one out...
As I hoped, Cavalli IMPLODED early vs my PIRATES +129 "value" bet, allowing 8 on base in just 2.1 ip. HORRIBLE PITCHING!! They yanked him, leaving 2 on he is responsible for, one out...
...that does NOT guarantee a win though!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
As I hoped, Cavalli IMPLODED early vs my PIRATES +129 "value" bet, allowing 8 on base in just 2.1 ip. HORRIBLE PITCHING!! They yanked him, leaving 2 on he is responsible for, one out...
Won't even try to handicap the CUBS ........ damn silly I'll wait however many games to see when they return to some kind of reasonable predictability. Blowing out one team 23 - 3 then losing AT HOME 1 - 17 and subsequently failing to even score the next is volatility on steroids......and trying to guess is just silly. Sound reasoning - NOT BASED ON A GUESS - or just PASS and look at a different game... Won't lose that way....
Thats perfect thinking. All of us gamblers make the same mistake all the time, thinking we need to find a bet in every game, no matter what the sport is.
Nope, pick are best spots and if they dont happen today, they will be playing the National Anthem again tomorrow in all the ball parks across the country.
We all have those same inner thoughts, are we gonna miss a winner if we dont make a bet. Maybe, but its not the last bet in the world.
playing the cubs right now will do this to your mind
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Won't even try to handicap the CUBS ........ damn silly I'll wait however many games to see when they return to some kind of reasonable predictability. Blowing out one team 23 - 3 then losing AT HOME 1 - 17 and subsequently failing to even score the next is volatility on steroids......and trying to guess is just silly. Sound reasoning - NOT BASED ON A GUESS - or just PASS and look at a different game... Won't lose that way....
Thats perfect thinking. All of us gamblers make the same mistake all the time, thinking we need to find a bet in every game, no matter what the sport is.
Nope, pick are best spots and if they dont happen today, they will be playing the National Anthem again tomorrow in all the ball parks across the country.
We all have those same inner thoughts, are we gonna miss a winner if we dont make a bet. Maybe, but its not the last bet in the world.
playing the cubs right now will do this to your mind
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Won't even try to handicap the CUBS ........ damn silly I'll wait however many games to see when they return to some kind of reasonable predictability. Blowing out one team 23 - 3 then losing AT HOME 1 - 17 and subsequently failing to even score the next is volatility on steroids......and trying to guess is just silly. Sound reasoning - NOT BASED ON A GUESS - or just PASS and look at a different game... Won't lose that way....
Thats perfect thinking. All of us gamblers make the same mistake all the time, thinking we need to find a bet in every game, no matter what the sport is.
Nope, pick are best spots and if they dont happen today, they will be playing the National Anthem again tomorrow in all the ball parks across the country. We all have those same inner thoughts, are we gonna miss a winner if we dont make a bet. Maybe, but its not the last bet in the world.
playing the cubs right now will do this to your mind
@cd329
TY and BoL with your bets today!
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Won't even try to handicap the CUBS ........ damn silly I'll wait however many games to see when they return to some kind of reasonable predictability. Blowing out one team 23 - 3 then losing AT HOME 1 - 17 and subsequently failing to even score the next is volatility on steroids......and trying to guess is just silly. Sound reasoning - NOT BASED ON A GUESS - or just PASS and look at a different game... Won't lose that way....
Thats perfect thinking. All of us gamblers make the same mistake all the time, thinking we need to find a bet in every game, no matter what the sport is.
Nope, pick are best spots and if they dont happen today, they will be playing the National Anthem again tomorrow in all the ball parks across the country. We all have those same inner thoughts, are we gonna miss a winner if we dont make a bet. Maybe, but its not the last bet in the world.
playing the cubs right now will do this to your mind
Yes....no bets or actual picks though; just what my capping sheet indicates as unders for the following games: Atlanta Cinci, Cleveland, KC, Houston, Colorado, Arizona.....so far......No way I'm picking them though
Quote Originally Posted by mlesnet:
Any under leans? Bol!
Yes....no bets or actual picks though; just what my capping sheet indicates as unders for the following games: Atlanta Cinci, Cleveland, KC, Houston, Colorado, Arizona.....so far......No way I'm picking them though
The mighty YANKEES have just lost their 5th in 6 home games. They've allowed 41 runs in those 6 games ....almost 7 rpg against ....and their slump continues....
Their slide and the Braves is to such depths it's shocking.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
The mighty YANKEES have just lost their 5th in 6 home games. They've allowed 41 runs in those 6 games ....almost 7 rpg against ....and their slump continues....
Their slide and the Braves is to such depths it's shocking.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: The mighty YANKEES have just lost their 5th in 6 home games. They've allowed 41 runs in those 6 games ....almost 7 rpg against ....and their slump continues.... Their slide and the Braves is to such depths it's shocking.
Marlins!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: The mighty YANKEES have just lost their 5th in 6 home games. They've allowed 41 runs in those 6 games ....almost 7 rpg against ....and their slump continues.... Their slide and the Braves is to such depths it's shocking.
Reminder: My "value bets" are predicated around the sound logic that whenever I handicap games to be a "coin-flipper" 50/50 or very close to it, getting significant PLUS $$$ is the play.....even though I will win only 50% of the time. Don't care. 50% wins at an average +120 or so over the season = profit!
But if YOU are looking for a winner, these "value bets" won't help you for that.
HORRIBLE PITCHING!! They yanked him, leaving 2 on he is responsible for, one out...
on your plays @fubah2 
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