BIG FAT LOSER.
That does it for me as far as betting UNDER go.....significant losing record.
And now, thanks to Ramirez being unable to throw a pitch anywhere near a strike zone, my Dodgers bet is in BIG jeopardy after blowing a 2 run lead.... 
This is another BIG FAT LOSER on what could be a big losing day for me.....sigh....
But in this game, I believe I actually made the right call with the large edge the Dodgers have over the anemic REDS offense....In fact they out hit the REDS 11 - 6 
but somehow the Reds manufactured 9 runs off only 6 hits.....a whole lotta luck went into that!
I haven't looked at tomorrow's matchup yet but I am not downgrading the DODGERS chances based on that one-off
My "value bets" in baseball.
I use this term "value bets" to apply to games where I can't make a reasonably strong case one way or the other for either team to prevail, but one side is getting significant PLUS MONEY, on what I expect is essentially a 50/50 toss-up (ie, coin-flipper) 
It's like betting on an actual flip of a coin (50/50 chance either way) where say a bet on HEADS wins or loses you $10.....but a bet on TAILS could cost you $10, but a win would gain $15.
Obviously the bet should be on TAILS, time after time, because it represents solid "value" when the odds are expected to be more or less right around 50/50! But keep in mind that due to the effect of random chance, HEADS could turn up several more times than TAILS in the short term...As long as we are prepared for that reality, we take our chances playing the odds on a 50/50 shot getting plus money...
I have 3 today that I have bet (@Pinnacle):
Pirates +154
Nats +134
Giants +127
I actually show both Nats and Giants with a slight advantage...but again NO GUARANTEES!
All 3 "value bets" won! 
While the ANGELS aren't setting the world on fire in terms of winning games, their offense is at least giving them a chance to win.
Their season avg is 4.38 rpg and that ranks them 15th out of 30.
Their HOMEPARK avg is 4.36 rpg which ranks them 13th. Not bad!
But recently they've picked it up, at least at the plate:
49 runs in the 9 games v. St.Louis, Texas, Houston, for a RECENT avg of 5.4 rpg
For today (and probably tomorrow as well) I am splitting the difference and estimating them for 4.8 runs - BEFORE accounting for the Cleveland pitching to tweak that estimate up or down.
Meanwhile, CLEVELAND has a season rpg of 4.88, which ranks them 5th highest in MLB! On the road they avg a solid 4.77 rpg.
Now we all watched in disbelief as they slumped BADLY losing their first three games at the lowly WhiteSox 12 days ago! BUT over the recent 10 games since that debacle: 56 runs scored, for an avg of 5.6 rpg!!!
Now look at the Allen/Sandoval lefty/lefty matchup. Neither is impressive! Mediocre is my assessment going in, suggesting the plate rpg averages are more likely to hold true...
• then look again at the estimated rpg for each offense,
• consider that Cleveland has the 5th highest OPS v lefties!!
• consider that ANGELS have the 6th highest OPS v lefties!!
• *and* there is a breeze blowing OUT to center!
...what do you think are the chances for an OVER 7.5?
Personally I am shocked this total isn't 9 or 9.5! Even if we dismiss each team's recent improved play at the plate, their season averages alone suggest this line should be at least 9.0!!!
So I went to the injury reports figuring I gotta be missing something 
........ but NOTHING NEW!
This one is my *BEST BET so much so that I doubled up on it, and I really like buying a half-point down to 7!!!!
Results Friday, May 24:
L LAD/Cin un 10 -112
W Royals -115
L Toro -117
W Pirates +154 ...per my pregame analysis!
W Nats +134 ...per my pregame analysis!
W Giants +127 ...per my pregame analysis!
L Dodgers -154
W CLE/LAA ov 8.0 -118 *BB ...per my pregame analysis!
W CLE/LAA ov 7.5 -117 *BB ...per my pregame analysis!
W CLE/LAA ov 7.0 -188 *BB ...per my pregame analysis!
= 7 - 3 +4.05u and all 3 *Best Bets won!
Yesterday: 6 - 0 +6.00u and all 3 *Best Bets won!
still pending...
DBACKS -177
LIVE HEDGE BET: Marlins -140
My "value bets" in baseball.
I use this term "value bets" to apply to games where I can't make a reasonably strong case one way or the other for either team to prevail, but one side is getting significant PLUS MONEY, on what I expect is essentially a 50/50 toss-up (ie, coin-flipper)
It's like betting on an actual flip of a coin (50/50 chance either way) where say a bet on HEADS wins or loses you $10.....but a bet on TAILS could cost you $10, but a win would gain $15.
Obviously the bet should be on TAILS, time after time, because it represents solid "value" when the odds are expected to be more or less right around 50/50! But keep in mind that due to the effect of random chance, HEADS could turn up several more times than TAILS in the short term...As long as we are prepared for that reality, we take our chances playing the odds on a 50/50 shot getting plus money...
I have 3 SATURDAY that I have bet (@Pinnacle):
Rangers +110
Royals +105
Brewers +130
The Brewers is the true coin-flipper, while I actually have both the Royals and the Rangers with +0.8 run edge in game score and I would probably bet them each even if they were tiny favs!
The Giants would normally be considered too - except for the fact they have defied the odds and won 3 straight coming from down 4 runs in each. Choosing the Giants would be pushing one's luck imo, though they have a sliver of an edge Saturday.
Now the big one which I am avoiding is Nationals - who are a home dog getting big plus money despite the fact I have them once again as the better chance to win!....Well, except for one BIG PROBLEM: SP Williams is riding a tenuous 9-game hot streak 
......and that means he's due, maybe overdue, for the "bad outing" that every good pitcher will have 2 or 3 times a season. Feel free to bet it if you want. He's very good and the Nats do have a small edge over the Mariners! But I don't need the stress. There's no obligation to bet on a game just because it's there. I can simply pass and look at other games.
So those 3 and the Dodgers look like my only bets for Saturday.
BoL with your bets today, fellas 
But if TWINKIES are going to do it today they will have to fight extra hard to over come the disadvantages at the plate and on the mound v. Texas. Can't count them out though...
Established in 1995,
BoL with YOUR bets tonight!! 
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