🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

PADRES!!

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Thursday's risky bets:    regression looming???

All @pinnacle

Push   SD/Cinci un 10 -127 alt-total  .....I have this one estimated for 8 or 9 runs

W  Yankees -142  *BB

W  Padres -102  *BB

W  Phillies -183

3 WINNERS!

Still pending...

        Oakland -120
        Colo/OAK ov 7 -156 alt-total  *BB
        Oakland TT ov 2.5 runs -265 alt-TT

YTD:   112 - 72   +31.65u     (48 - 33 *BB)

The YTD number does not yet include the results from today...

Congratulations fubah on a great day and on solid YTD season. 

What a win by OAKLAND!!! WOW! FUBAH CLEANED IT UP TODAY!

@Tailer187

Oy vey!!!  

When Rockies went up 9 - 5 at top of 11th, I figured it was a sure loser, I'd recap a 5 - 1 day later, and went for a nap.  I literally just woke up now to see I missed all the fun, as they made the fairytale 11th inning come back to win!

RESULTS for Thursday, May 23:

push SD/Cinci un 10 -127 alt-total
W   Yankees -142    *BB
W   Padres -102    *BB
W   Phillies -183
W   Oakland -120
W   Colo/OAK ov 7 -156 alt-total   *BB
W   Oak TT ov 2.5 runs -265 alt-TT

= 6 - 0       (3 - 0 *BB)

       YTD:    118 - 72     (51 - 33 *BB)

Like many of you I actually bet much more $$$$ (units) on some bets than others... But for standardized record-keeping I am respectfully listing my results as if all were for one unit. However, if I had chosen to represent all my posted bets at say a mean avg of  5 units each like some on the forum do, then my record now would be +188.25 units! Friday bets (pinnacle and Bet365 overnights): CLE/LAA ov 8 -118 *BB and ov 7 -188 alt-total *BB; Royals -115; Toro -117; Dodgers -154; LAD/Cin un 10 -112....so far....

@fubah2

Help me fubah2

 Thanks

  My "value bets" in baseball.

I use this term "value bets" to apply to games where I can't make a reasonably strong case one way or the other for either team to prevail, but one side is getting significant PLUS MONEY, on what I expect is essentially a 50/50 toss-up (ie, coin-flipper)

It's like betting on an actual flip of a coin (50/50 chance either way) where say a bet on HEADS wins or loses you $10.....but a bet on TAILS could cost you $10, but a win would gain $15.
Obviously the bet should be on TAILS, time after time, because it represents solid "value" when the odds are expected to be more or less right around 50/50! But keep in mind that due to the effect of random chance, HEADS could turn up several more times than TAILS in the short term...As long as we are prepared for that reality, we take our chances playing the odds on a 50/50 shot getting plus money...

I have 3 today that I have bet (@Pinnacle):
        Pirates +154
         Nats +134
         Giants +127
I actually show both Nats and Giants with a slight advantage...but again NO GUARANTEES!

Brewers could be another too, but I just have this hunch that Crawford and the BoSox are going to win. I won't bet on a hunch though - learned that hard lesson long ago! - so I am passing.

Agree, If you know you ve got a pair of aces and they are  giving you more money , go ahead. Like pirates and your early over 

GL

Halos? 

While they aren't setting the world on fire in terms of winning games, their offense is at least giving them a chance to win.

Their season avg is 4.38 rpg and that ranks them 15th out of 30.

Their HOMEPARK avg is 4.36 rpg which ranks them 13th.  Not bad!

But recently they've picked it up, at least at the plate:

49 runs in the 9 games v. St.Louis, Texas, Houston, for a RECENT avg of  5.4 rpg

For today (and probably tomorrow as well) I am splitting the difference and estimating them for 4.8 runs - BEFORE accounting for the Cleveland pitching to tweak that estimate up or down.

      Meanwhile, CLEVELAND has a season rpg of 4.88, which ranks them 5th highest in MLB! On the road they avg a solid 4.77 rpg.

Now we all watched in disbelief as they slumped BADLY losing their first three games at the lowly WhiteSox 12 days ago! BUT over the recent 10 games since that debacle: 56 runs scored, for an avg of 5.6 rpg!!

Now look at the Allen/Sandoval lefty/lefty matchup. Neither is impressive! Mediocre is my assessment going in, suggesting the plate rpg averages are more likely to hold true...
•  then look again at the estimated rpg for each offense,
•  consider that Cleveland has the 5th highest OPS v lefties!!
•  consider that ANGELS have the 6th highest OPS v lefties!!
•  *and* there is a breeze blowing OUT to center!

...what do you think are the chances for an OVER 7.5?

Personally I am shocked this total isn't 9 or 9.5. Even if we dismiss each team's recent improved play at the plate, their season averages alone suggest this line should be at least 9.0!!!
So I went to the injury reports figuring I gotta be missing something ........ but NOTHING NEW!

This one is my *BEST BET so much so that I doubled up on it, and I really like buying a half-point down to 7!!!!.... but with full understanding that it can still lose...

If I am missing something please advise!

@fubah2

@OO7CRUSHER

@zanga8969

@Coloneljim

@Tailer187

@yourpalhal

@VICRRC

Thanks fellas!  BoL with YOUR bets tonight!!

@fubah2

 Bol to ya 

@fubah2

BOSTON tea party?

This series with the Brewers looks interesting. Brewers have been up and down recently but the RedSox may have got back their mojo, scoring 37 runs the past two series (6 games)

Tonight is a coin-flipper I admit, though my hunch is BoSox continue their run.

Tomorrow the expected Pivetta/Rea matchup favors Boston,

and Sunday the Brewers starter is not determined yet, but Tanner Houck for BoSox is excellent regardless who the Brewers put up.

SERIES BET:  BOSTON -150

If I lose the coin-flipper tonight I still have a decent chance to win the next two!

@fubah2

"If I am missing something please advise!"

May not be a problem tonight because of the late sundown, but traditionally "The Big A" is the lowest scoring park in MLB. After dark the Marine Layer settles over it and the ball just does not want to fly. Common in West Coast parks vs East Coast, where the pull of the jet stream is out to sea, unlike the West, where the effect is inbound. I agree, it looks like an over (12?), but there are many games in SD, LAA, LAD, and Seattle where the effect is real. For some unknown reason Oakland does not seem to have the same problem. Maybe lay of the land, or something like that. Anyway, just a consideration.

Thank you! Not aware of that!  I'll be keeping this in mind going forward!

    In Sandoval's recent 4 starts (he's a mediocre lefty)
three of those 4 teams bat well against lefties,
and ultimately the ANGELS yielded runs against of:
3     4     0     and   2

In Allen's recent 4 starts (he's a lefty, on the road tonight)
only the Astros and Twins can hit lefties,
but CWS and Tiggers definitely can not,
and ultimately CLEVELAND yielded runs against of:
4     0     11    and   8

@fubah2

 Yet another interesting take. The surprising line, and it's movement have got us all in an uproar.

@KeyElement

 Indeed.  Very interesting.  I have Cleveland penned in for 4.9 runs and Angels for 4.7 - not enough an edge to bet Cleveland - but has me thinking seriously about the over 3.5 team totals for each.....

@fubah2

"Thank you! Not aware of that!  I'll be keeping this in mind going forward!" 

Yeah, I noticed years ago that a WC/EC matchup between the same two teams was radically different. Seattle at Boston would have totals like 8.5, 9.5, 9, rather high. Same two teams play a week later in Seattle and the totals are 6, 7, 6.5, etc. WC teams can be undervalued on offense because of the difficulty of crashing home runs in those parks. They score high on the EC, just like everybody else. Baseball is a funny game. 

@fubah2

 boston series -150 not able to play so i did hit the first 2 games individually.. thanks for ALL the info