Feeling VERY skittish today...
Still tentative about wading into MLB after the All-Star break - which has always been a DISASTER for me in the past and since prompted me to call it quits after every ASB.
Also, I'm on a HOT STREAK. And therein lies a problem: likelyhood for regression! Sure it would be great if the streak continues but pressing my luck usually does not end well for me.
Normally I would slash my bet $$ significantly and press on. But this time feels different.
My handicapping suggests the following for bets that I would normally take (the same way they have suggested daily on this hot streak) So they are decent plays, except I am NOT betting them (not even at minimal amounts) and therefore these are NOT posted bets for the record. They are listed here only as LEANS... If they produce a profit, so be it....I can live with missing out while avoiding the risk of loss.
Sunday LEANS:
Blew-it Jays ML ...small edge still justifies a small fav
SF/TOR un 9 alt-line
... Giant's RAY is awesome and while Berrios is also good (but not as good) - the fact he is coming off a "bad" outing is significant imo, because GOOD starters usually DO NOT have 2 consecutive poor performances. Of course in baseball anything can happen but probability favors both starters pitching fairly well AND both are backed by better than avg bullpens. I have it pegged for just 7.8 total runs....suggesting the most likely range this game ultimately falls is 7 or 8 or 9 runs
incredible… the 4 Dogs and ride on out with some BB’s. That was a helluva day thanks again.
I went 3-0 thanks to you… not a more humble and transparent Capper on covers in my opinion. 
@JJWoods
You are much too kind, sir....Thank You!
Glad you got some winners! 
that sir is as good as it gets… and I got lucky to get in on it… it usually goes the other way….
I 2 team RR these … not for much $… but I did…. Tip my cap to you on this day… that’s as good as it gets right there…
@Mskeets
For realzies?! WOW, you had a fun ride then! 
I read in your other post last night that your RR with $5 parlays made a net profit of $514
Good call, Mskeets 
BoL with your bets today!
. Sunday, JULY 20
HOT STREAK WARNING!!
SUAREZ, Philly
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 12-game HOT STREAK, 
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! 
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team loses! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe
@fubah2
No sir… I played all 7 in a parlay for 5$… and it paid 540 ish… but I also played them all in 2 team RR .. for 5$ each… not sure what that paid… 250 maybe. I’m listening to your regression intuition… and will adhere myself…… If I ever bump into ya…. Beers are on me. I put 30$ on your Balt under … only play… because you used capital letters on the NOT….
No sir… I played all 7 in a parlay for 5$… and it paid $540 ish… but I also played them all in 2 team RR .. for 5$ each… not sure what that paid… $250 maybe.
I’m listening to your regression intuition… and will adhere myself…… If I ever bump into ya…. Beers are on me. I put 30$ on your Balt under … only play… because you used capital letters on the NOT….
@Mskeets
Damn, that's even better than I thought! LOL 
Feeling VERY skittish today...
Still tentative about wading into MLB after the All-Star break - which has always been a DISASTER for me in the past and since prompted me to call it quits after every ASB.
Also, I'm on a HOT STREAK. And therein lies a problem: likelyhood for regression! Sure it would be great if the streak continues but pressing my luck usually does not end well for me.
Normally I would slash my bet $$ significantly and press on. But this time feels different.
My handicapping suggests the following for bets that I would normally take (the same way they have suggested daily on this hot streak) So they are decent plays, except I am NOT betting them (not even at minimal amounts) and therefore these are NOT posted bets for the record. They are listed here only as LEANS... If they produce a profit, so be it....I can live with missing out while avoiding the risk of loss.
Sunday LEANS:
Blew-it Jays ML ...small edge still justifies a small fav
SF/TOR un 9 alt-line
... Giant's RAY is awesome and while Berrios is also good (but not as good) - the fact he is coming off a "bad" outing is significant imo, because GOOD starters usually DO NOT have 2 consecutive poor performances. Of course in baseball anything can happen but probability favors both starters pitching fairly well AND both are backed by better than avg bullpens. I have it pegged for just 7.8 total runs....suggesting the most likely range this game ultimately falls is 7 or 8 or 9 runs
My capping also suggest Balt/TB UN 9 would be a fair bet as well, though I am NOT betting it
And in my haste I forgot to mention that TAMPA ML is also on today's handicapping sheet as a decent bet (but only a LEAN now) - which I would have normally bet if not for my fear of regression...
. Sunday, JULY 20
HOT STREAK WARNING!!
RYAN, Twinkies
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team loses! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe
</
REGRESSION looming?
That's why I am NOT betting the selections which my handicapping sheets are spitting out - selections which I would normally bet (and post as bets) but given the probability of regression from a hot streak I am not confident bets on these will profit...
I might feel better if I find an OVER.
And I did, last night. NYY/Atla over 9 alt-line would have been a bet, but I waited until this morning and the damn line has pushed up to 10.5 
PASS on the over
LEANS only . . . as I feel my selections are due for regression
CWS +ml plus money "value" in a coin-flipper
Cinci +ml decent plus money AND small edge
Miami +ml plus money AND small but decent edge
A's ml small fav with fair edge
KC/Miami un 8 I have figured for 6.5 runs
They are decent selections according to my handicapping and I would normally bet these but not today! Win or lose they will NOT count on my record.
Additionally,
I would have normally grabbed SEATTLE -116 on the overnight line, having a decent edge for a smallish fav. BUT that line has since pushed up of course...
Also I would normally grab BREWSKIES ml getting good plus money in a coin-flipper
Cubs bats give them a tiny edge today at home and getting plus money....but I am concerned about HORTON's stats as they are propped up (at home) facing a lot of weak offenses: Cleveland, Seattle, Pitts, Colo, and CWS
Too much uncertainty for me to LEAN toward Cubs...
HOT STREAK WARNING!!
SUAREZ, Philly
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 12-game HOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
Well SUAREZ (Phillies) hot streak just *CRASHED* badly!
He allowed 8 on base after only 2 ip along with 5 earned runs...
Hope my warning helped someone...
@Mskeets
Certainly a strong consideration, yes, but especially when the streak hits double-digits.
JJWoods made this observation here several weeks ago and it has merit! Fade the team whose starter has a DD hot streak going (without a bad outing)....and almost always, the fade will be with GOOD PLUS MONEY! 
So far in the early going it appears my "regression probability" instincts to avoid placing bets is going to save my ass a bunch.
However, I have two games I am betting, but NOT as *Best Bets...
These are official bets for the record, regardless result:
AZ Serpientes -135 @pinn
I am expecting that KELLY has another good outing, and AZ does enter with a stronger offense. I have AZ with a solid 1.0 run edge here, although in baseball anything can happen....Still probability favors AZ
Milw/LAD ov 9 -108 @pinn
So far, Kershaw hasn't exactly inspired in his HOME appearances, and Mikolas on the road is mediocre.....versus 2 offenses which can be explosive....and a slight breeze drifting OUT....I have this game pegged at a most probable range of 8 to 12 runs....In that range, only the 8 would represent a loss 
Began Saturday, YTD: 150 - 110
Saturday, July 19:
W CWS +120
W Marlins +112
W Blue Jays +108
W Serpientes +107
W Tampa -123 *BB win
W Yankees -123 *BB win
W Mariners -129
= 7 - 0 +7.47u
YTD: 157 - 110
grabbed both thx 
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
