Posted:
#3126
@fubah2
🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵
Posted:
#3127
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
So far in the early going it appears my "regression probability" instincts to avoid placing bets is going to save my ass a bunch. However, I have two games I am betting, but NOT as *Best Bets... These are official bets for the record, regardless result:
So far in the early going it appears my "regression probability" instincts to avoid placing bets is going to save my ass a bunch. However, I have two games I am betting, but NOT as *Best Bets... These are official bets for the record, regardless result:
Milw/LAD ov 9 -108 @pinn So far, Kershaw hasn't exactly inspired in his HOME appearances, and Mikolas on the road is mediocre.....versus 2 offenses which can be explosive....and a slight breeze drifting OUT....I have this game pegged at a most probable range of 8 to 12 runs....In that range, only the 8 would represent a loss
Oooops, I meant Quintana (not Mikolas for Brewers, although Mikolas for CARDS, is very mediocre on the road too)
Posted:
#3128
So these are the LEANS I listed today which my handicapping indicated were good and which normally I would have bet...But due to my HOT STREAK and thus "impending regression," my experience said to back off betting them and only list these as non-bet LEANS:
So here is what would have happened had I bet them:
win Blew-it Jays ML
win Balt/TB UN 9
win CWS +ml plus money "value" in a coin-flipper
X SF/TOR un 9 alt-line
X TAMPA ML
X NYY/Atla over 9 alt-line on overnight line
X Cinci +ml decent plus money AND small edge
X Miami +ml plus money AND small but decent edge
X A's ml small fav with fair edge
X KC/Miami un 8 I have figured for 6.5 runs
pending...Seattle -116 on the overnight line
pending...Brewers ml
Meanwhile, I DID post 2 official bets for the record:
pending...AZ Serpientes -135
pending...Milw/LAD ov 9 -108
Posted:
#3130
Nightcap: Tiggers @TEXAS
Detroit is first place overall in MLB....but on a big slump right now, losing 6 in a row and badly out-gunned in the process.
But because they are normally VERY GOOD, they could snap out of their funk at any time. We just don't know when! And I am not going to "guess"
Guessing is the antithesis of profitable handicapping. Like the YANKEES recently, it is wiser to wait until *AFTER* they break out of their slump to consider betting either ON or AGAINST them. Too much uncertainty. Too risky.
PASS
Posted:
#3132
@fubah2
Myself i usaully hate sundays and now usaully never bet dont no why but i did today and it was a real nail bitter right yo the last out bases loaded 3-0 count 2 outs and baltimores closer got the out Baltimore Tampa under 8.5 Wheww close call
Great work Legend
You the Man
Thanks for all you do put out a tip dish fubah for all you do sir.
Mr Evil.
Posted:
#3133
Quote Originally Posted by trust-me:
@fubah2 Myself i usaully hate sundays and now usaully never bet dont no why but i did today and it was a real nail bitter right yo the last out bases loaded 3-0 count 2 outs and baltimores closer got the out Baltimore Tampa under 8.5 Wheww close call Great work Legend You the Man Thanks for all you do put out a tip dish fubah for all you do sir.
@fubah2 Myself i usaully hate sundays and now usaully never bet dont no why but i did today and it was a real nail bitter right yo the last out bases loaded 3-0 count 2 outs and baltimores closer got the out Baltimore Tampa under 8.5 Wheww close call Great work Legend You the Man Thanks for all you do put out a tip dish fubah for all you do sir.
@trust-me
And THANK YOU, sir. 
Posted:
#3134
@fubah2
Mr Fubah have you been placing some live wagers yet this season?
Just wanna add that I’m a big fan of history repeats itself…and over the decades have learned to handicap myself. Much like your post ASG experiences, these next 6-8 weeks (including football early) I’ve consistently struggled and it’s the time I reduce my unit amount, stay selective and just tread water until late September. Incredible how patterns repeat. Thanks again for today and warning us to lay off… way too cool partner..
Never told why I was banned and gave my best always to the forums
Posted:
#3136
[Quote: Originally Posted by fubah2]
So these are the LEANS I listed today which my handicapping indicated were good and which normally I would have bet...
But due to my HOT STREAK and thus "impending regression," my experience said to back off betting them and only list these as non-bet LEANS:
So here is what would have happened had I bet them:
win Blew-it Jays ML
win Balt/TB UN 9
win CWS +ml plus money "value" in a coin-flipper
X SF/TOR un 9 alt-line
X TAMPA ML
X NYY/Atla over 9 alt-line on overnight line
X Cinci +ml decent plus money AND small edge
X Miami +ml plus money AND small but decent edge
X A's ml small fav with fair edge
X KC/Miami un 8 I have figured for 6.5 runs
X Seattle -116 on the overnight line
win Brewers ml
ie, would have been 4 wins 8 losses
...my *BBs suck this season
Posted:
#3146
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
SENGA (Mets) has started 14 games but ONLY ONCE allowed 3 earned runs.....all his other games were 0, 1, or 2 earned runs max. He may hold the best starter stats in 2025 so far
SENGA (Mets) has started 14 games but ONLY ONCE allowed 3 earned runs.....all his other games were 0, 1, or 2 earned runs max. He may hold the best starter stats in 2025 so far
Soooo........naturally.............the first time I bet on SENGA (*Best Bet) he allows 4 earned runs for the first time this sseason and has now logged a BAD outing......
This is a highly probable loss now because METS don't have the consistency at the plate to overcome what is only 4 runs now but may increase soon........sigh...
Posted:
#3149
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: SENGA (Mets) has started 14 games but ONLY ONCE allowed 3 earned runs.....all his other games were 0, 1, or 2 earned runs max. He may hold the best starter stats in 2025 so far Soooo........naturally.............the first time I bet on SENGA (*Best Bet) he allows 4 earned runs for the first time this season and has now logged a BAD outing...... This is a highly probable loss now because METS don't have the consistency at the plate to overcome what is only 4 runs now but may increase soon........sigh...
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: SENGA (Mets) has started 14 games but ONLY ONCE allowed 3 earned runs.....all his other games were 0, 1, or 2 earned runs max. He may hold the best starter stats in 2025 so far Soooo........naturally.............the first time I bet on SENGA (*Best Bet) he allows 4 earned runs for the first time this season and has now logged a BAD outing...... This is a highly probable loss now because METS don't have the consistency at the plate to overcome what is only 4 runs now but may increase soon........sigh...
SunuvaB**CH 
My METS (-166 *BB) are actually threatening to win this game!
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