Posted:
#276
Our twins got the huge series win!!!
🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵
Posted:
#278
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
In the Wash/BOS game,
In the Wash/BOS game,
with a very slight wind blowing in, I have the game total pegged at 7.4 runs.
• In g1 I estimated the game pitching at NET ZERO (or mediocre; average) and it yielded just 6 runs.
• In g2 Irvin/Criswell's combined net pitching was expected to be BETTER than average and they combined again for just 6 runs.
Today,
I figure Gore/Bello should combine for slightly better than average pitching, so 6 runs is quite possible once again!....but I am bumping my estimate up to 7.4 runs just for a cushion in case I am off a bit.
In my capping style, I look at the most probable range of game total and judge that against the best value total odds I can get, including alt-totals.
In this one, 5 6 7 . 8 9p 10
I opted for the alt-total UNDER 9 -150
Note, if my est is reasonably accurate (of course anything can happen) but if I am real close in probable range, then 4 of those 6 results would be winners, 9 runs would be a safe push, and only 10+ is a loser. So, 4 to 1 odds with a -150 line....
WINNER!! 
Posted:
#281
Sunday, May 12:
7 - 4 +1.34u ...includes 2 - 1 +1.0u Series bets
My season results so far:
April 30: 3 - 5 - 1 -2.65u (1 - 2 *BB)
May 01: 7 - 0 +7.64u (4 - 0 *BB)
May 02: 1 - 0 - 1 +1.00u
May 03: 5 - 5 -1.16u (4 - 3 *BB)
May 04: 5 - 7 -4.25u (4 - 2 *BB)
May 05: 11 - 8 +6.72u (4 - 4 *BB)
May 06: 2 - 3 -1.39u (1 - 3 *BB)
May 07: 8 - 2 - 1 +4.70u (5 - 2 *BB)
May 08: 3 - 2 - 1 +0.58u (2 - 1 *BB)
May 09: 2 - 0 +2.00u (1 - 0 *BB)
May 10: 13 - 8 +5.45u (6 - 5 *BB)
May 11: 7 - 3 +2.60u (2 - 1 *BB)
May 12: 7 - 4 +1.34u (1 - 2 *BB)
= 74 - 47 - 4 +22.58u 
(35 - 25 *BB)
Posted:
#284
My season results so far:
April 30: 3 - 5 - 1 -2.65u (1 - 2 *BB)
May 01: 7 - 0 +7.64u (4 - 0 *BB)
May 02: 1 - 0 - 1 +1.00u
May 03: 5 - 5 -1.16u (4 - 3 *BB)
May 04: 5 - 7 -4.25u (4 - 2 *BB)
May 05: 11 - 8 +6.72u (4 - 4 *BB)
May 06: 2 - 3 -1.39u (1 - 3 *BB)
May 07: 8 - 2 - 1 +4.70u (5 - 2 *BB)
May 08: 3 - 2 - 1 +0.58u (2 - 1 *BB)
May 09: 2 - 0 +2.00u (1 - 0 *BB)
May 10: 13 - 8 +5.45u (6 - 5 *BB)
May 11: 7 - 3 +2.60u (2 - 1 *BB)
May 12: 7 - 4 +1.34u (1 - 2 *BB)
= 74 - 47 - 4 +22.58u (35 - 25 *BB)
Monday, May 13: Orioles -170 *BB and BoSox -115 *BB
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Posted:
#287
WARNING: HOT STREAK alert!
The following STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK, WITHOUT getting roughed up yet in that streak,
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! 
IMANAGA, Cubbies
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional. But probability says "consecutive streaks don't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. CAN NOT be avoided.
When??? We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some streaks may continue beyond that by 2 or 3 more performances....it happens! But for me, I don't need the stress that the bubble may burst that day. There's 14 other games to look at. I can simply skip those "HOT STREAK" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing beatdown, then resume looking at his starts after that!
Posted:
#289
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
My season results so far:
Tiggers -158 @pinnacle ...more coming
My season results so far:
April 30: 3 - 5 - 1 -2.65u (1 - 2 *BB)
May 01: 7 - 0 +7.64u (4 - 0 *BB)
May 02: 1 - 0 - 1 +1.00u
May 03: 5 - 5 -1.16u (4 - 3 *BB)
May 04: 5 - 7 -4.25u (4 - 2 *BB)
May 05: 11 - 8 +6.72u (4 - 4 *BB)
May 06: 2 - 3 -1.39u (1 - 3 *BB)
May 07: 8 - 2 - 1 +4.70u (5 - 2 *BB)
May 08: 3 - 2 - 1 +0.58u (2 - 1 *BB)
May 09: 2 - 0 +2.00u (1 - 0 *BB)
May 10: 13 - 8 +5.45u (6 - 5 *BB)
May 11: 7 - 3 +2.60u (2 - 1 *BB)
May 12: 7 - 4 +1.34u (1 - 2 *BB)
= 74 - 47 - 4 +22.58u (35 - 25 *BB)
Monday, May 13: Orioles -170 *BB and BoSox -115 *BB
Posted:
#292
Based on my stats/capping, Oakland holds a small edge on tonight's mound and also for BP, while Astros hold a similarly small edge at the plate. Stipling is a mediocre starter for Oakland but coming off a dreadful outing, and usually they rebound from that to avoid a second consecutive beatdown with at the very least a fair-to-middlin performance -- but definitely a rebound!
So basically I have this as dead heat , coin flipper! 50/50. Could go either way easily! Oakland is getting big plus money, so the value is there on a coin-flip...
OAKLAND +158 @pinnacle
Posted:
#293
Not so sure CARDINALS should be favored in this one at Angel Stadium.
Missing their slugger CONTRERAS at the plate, they are outgunned by a small margin and the CARDS are putting a reliever on the mound -- backed up by a substandard pen..... Liberatore stats are impressive for a short reliever.....but how about a full game, knowingthe best reliever to get himself out of a jam is no longer in the bullpen (it's him!)
Soriano won't frighten anyone but he's around the mediocre mark, now coming off a rough outing.
ANGELS +104 @pinnacle
Posted:
#294
WARNING: HOT STREAK alert!
The following STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK, WITHOUT getting roughed up yet in that streak,
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
Yamamoto, DODGERS - heavy favs!
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional. But probability says "consecutive streaks don't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. CAN NOT be avoided.
When??? We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some streaks may continue beyond that by 2 or 3 more performances....it happens! But for me, I don't need the stress that the bubble may burst that day. There's 14 other games to look at. I can simply skip those "HOT STREAK" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing beatdown, then resume looking at his starts after that!
Posted:
#295
It's getting interesting in scoreless Atlanta! Imanaga not enjoying his usual GOOD outing....he's managed to escape so far but 10 on thru 5 innings but no scores is lucky pitching, imo!....Meanwhile Lopez is keeping the Cubs at bay with a GOOD outing thus far, although they are pulling him after just 5.....He's only allowed 4 on thru 5 with no runs...
.......Braves have a slightly better pen in this venue....
LIVE BET: Braves -145
Posted:
#297
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
It's getting interesting in scoreless Atlanta! Imanaga not enjoying his usual GOOD outing....he's managed to escape so far but 10 on thru 5 innings but no scores is lucky pitching, imo!....Meanwhile Lopez is keeping the Cubs at bay with a GOOD outing thus far, although they are pulling him after just 5.....He's only allowed 4 on thru 5 with no runs..........Braves have a slightly better pen in this venue.... LIVE BET: Braves -145
It's getting interesting in scoreless Atlanta! Imanaga not enjoying his usual GOOD outing....he's managed to escape so far but 10 on thru 5 innings but no scores is lucky pitching, imo!....Meanwhile Lopez is keeping the Cubs at bay with a GOOD outing thus far, although they are pulling him after just 5.....He's only allowed 4 on thru 5 with no runs..........Braves have a slightly better pen in this venue.... LIVE BET: Braves -145
Adding: Padres -214 @pinnacle
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